Ubushinwa bwemeje neza ko ubukungu bwisi bwagaruwe vuba. Amakuru yubucuruzi yerekanye ko ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byiyongereye kugera kuri 60% Yoy kuri Mutarama-Gashyantare. Ikimenyetso cyarenze cyane ibyateganijwe (40%). Imibare ya Gashyantare ntabwo ari nziza - 150% yoy. Mu buryo bwinshi, iyi niyo nkwiriye kubafatanyabikorwa bacururiza ubucuruzi, cyane cyane Amerika, imikurire yabo muri Gashyantare ndetse yarokotse 20. Ibi birerekana, kurugero, agaciro kanditse kashe byerekana ko ubukungu bwagutse bwa Gold Sachs:
Umurongo wubururu - Ikimenyetso cyo Kwagura Ubukungu kuva GS
Cyangwa, kurugero, inshuro nyinshi-gdp GDP Iteganyagihembwe rya mbere kuva NY Fed:
Iteganyagihe ryazamutse kubera amakuru akomeye yinjira kandi ubu 8.5%. Kandi biracyakuraho inkunga!
Kongere yemeje ingamba zo gutera inkunga amadorari 1.9 z'amadolari, ariko ucire urubanza kubera ko ejo hazaza hagurishijwe muri zone atukura, nta makuru atunguranye atatekerezaga, kandi ingana zimaze kwitabwaho mu biciro.
Uburinganire bufite igitutu, nkuko guhangayika muri Trezersi ntabwo bakora ahantu hose. Byongeye kandi, ibyabaye mucyumweru gishize (Powell, NFP) yabonye inzira gusa. Ndemeranya, ingingo yimibare nubilate, ariko amasoko muburyo bwo koga bwagura - kuva kuganwa kuri buri mukarura no kugandukira kuri buri mumamakara, nta kimenyetso cyaka, bityo kikaba gisubirwamo Mu gipimo nka vuba aha ntibisanzwe. Baratera "ibitekerezo byose mububiko", na none ibya none kuriyi mikorere ya videwo yuyu munsi.
Jp Morgan yavumbuye undi murongo w'ingaruka zo kugurisha vuba aha muri Berzerris ku isoko ryimigabane - gusubiramo pansiyo nini hamwe na mutuelle. Birashoboka cyane ko bahindura cyane umutungo wanditse muri Portfolio, kuva, mbere, bafite ibyiza mububiko, naho icya kabiri, imigabane yazamutseho neza, kandi ingoyi ziragwa neza.
Hano hari abakinnyi 4 bakomeye, bagenda bakomeza gukurikira - amafaranga aringaniye (60:40), amafaranga ya pansiyo yo muri Amerika, ikigega cya peteroli cya Noruveje, ikigega cya gereza ya japan. Zimuhindukiwe nubundi bundi buryo hagati yicyiciro cyumutungo, ariko kubera ko bamwe muribo bisubitswe nuburyo abantu bose bahuye nigihe cyongeyeho igihembwe kirangiye. Kurugero, mumafaranga yo muri Amerika uyumunsi yashinze inyungu zigaragara muburyo bugaragara, bitinde bitebuke cyangwa nyuma bigomba guhinduka:
JP Morgan arashima ibishobora kuvugurura bivuye mu bubiko buterwa no kugurisha aya mafranga kuri miliyari 316. Kuva mu birori byagenwe cyangwa bidashoboka), abitabiriye amasoko basigaye barashobora Gerageza gukubita balale zishobora gukanda ikigega.
Ibintu by'ingenzi bigomba gukurikiranwa muri iki cyumweru:
Nk'uko euro - published munsi, raporo ku mitungo ya umutungo mu rwego ya PEPP ( "cyorezo QE", gahunda z'ingenzi kugura) - Mbega ECB babyitabiriye ku gukura inyungu mu mvuto z'ibanze? Niba ibyo kugura byiyongereye, ingaruka kuri TVRO ni mbi, kuko Ikimenyetso cyerekana ko ECB ireba. Ku wa kane - inama ya ECB, kandi na none ikibazo nuko umugenzuzi atekereza ku mitwe ya vuba aha ingwate?
Kuri USD - ku wa gatatu no ku wa kane ni cyamunara munini w'abanazi b'imyaka 10- 30. Kunanirwa kwamunara bizashimangira igitutu kuri Trezersi, naho ubundi, niba bafunguye neza, umutungo ushobora guteza akaga uzagira ubutabazi. Raporo ku ifaranga muri Amerika muri Gashyantare, irekurwa riteganijwe ku wa gatatu. Kwita ku makuru agezweho ya NFP, gutungurwa neza birashoboka ko bizashyigikira gukosorwa na USD.
Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill UK Indorerezi
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