Manyan kudade suna shirye-shiryen rechaling. Ba a cikin yarda da hannun jari ba

Anonim

Kasar Sin ta tabbatar da cewa tattalin arzikin duniya yana mai da sauri. Bayanai na kasuwanci sun nuna cewa fitarwa ta karu zuwa mai ban sha'awa 60% kenan don Janairu--Fabrairu. Mai nuna alama yana da matukar wuce hasashen (40%). Figures na Fabrairu ne gaba daya dama ce - 150% yoy. A cikin hanyoyi da yawa, wannan shine mafi kyautar abokan huldar kasuwanci, musamman Amurka, wacce haɓakar ta ce a watan Fabrairu har ma sun tsira 20 ga ruri. Wannan yana nuna, alal misali, rikodin rikodin rikodin mai nuna bambancin tattalin arziƙin tattalin arziƙin Goldman Sachs:

Manyan kudade suna shirye-shiryen rechaling. Ba a cikin yarda da hannun jari ba 21907_1
Gsudai

Blue Curve - Mai nuna fadada tattalin arziƙin tattalin arziki daga GS

Ko, alal misali, babbar-mitar Hanya ta US GDP ta hasashen kwata na farko daga NY Fed:

Manyan kudade suna shirye-shiryen rechaling. Ba a cikin yarda da hannun jari ba 21907_2
NY Fed

Hasashen yana hawa saboda mahimmin bayanan shigowa kuma yanzu ya kasance 8.5%. Kuma har yanzu yana banbancin karfafa!

Majalisar ta amince da matakan goyon baya ga dala miliyan 1. Amma yin hukunci da cewa za a yi hukunci a makomar nan gaba a cikin ja.

Adalci na fuskantar matsin lamba, kamar yadda yanayin damuwa a Trezeris baya yin koina. Haka kuma, abubuwan da suka faru a makon da ya gabata (Powell, NFP) sun sami yanayi kawai. Na yarda, batun farashin Nubilate da Oskomin wata, amma kasuwanni a yanzu suna yin ninkaya don suttura da kuma tide a kasuwa, babu wata alama a can, don haka maimaita rawar jiki A cikin kudaden kamar kwanan nan ba cire. Suna tsokani "kewayon abin mamaki a cikin hannun jari", sake sake game da wannan a kan iyakar Bidiyo na yau.

JP Morgan gano wani layin tasirin sayar da kwanan nan a Trezerris akan kasuwar hannun jari - sake dawo da manyan fansho da kudaden juna. Wataƙila suna daidaita gwargwadon kadarorin a cikin fayil, tun da, da farko, suna da fa'idodi a hannun jari, kuma abu na biyu, hannun jari ya tashi da kyau, kuma shaidu sun tashi da kyau.

Akwai manyan 'yan wasa 4, wanda motsawarsa ke buƙatar bi - daidaita kudaden juna (60:40), Asusun fansho na Yarensi, Asusun Pension An canza su da yanayi daban-daban tsakanin aji, amma tunda aka jinkirta wasu daga cikin hanyar, kowa ya kara da wani lokaci da-dus a ƙarshen wannan kwata. Misali, a cikin kudaden tarayya na Amurka a yau sun kafa m fa'ida a cikin ãdalci, wanda ba da daɗewa ba za a daidaita shi:

Manyan kudade suna shirye-shiryen rechaling. Ba a cikin yarda da hannun jari ba 21907_3
Daidaito beta.

Jp Morgan ya yaba da yiwuwar tayin da aka samu daga hannun jari da aka samu ta hanyar tallace-tallace na wadannan kudade na bukatar hakan ne, sauran da suka faru (sauran dabarun kudaden ne Yi ƙoƙarin doke kifi Whales wanda zai iya danna Asusun.

Mabuɗin abubuwan da ake buƙatar kulawa da wannan makon:

A cewar Yuro - wanda aka buga a yau, rahoto akan kadarorin kadarorin da ke cikin tsarin Pepp ("Pandemic Qe", babban shirin siye) - zai amsa ECB amsa ga ci gaban riba a cikin shaidu na a cikin bangarorin gida? Idan sayayya sun ƙaru, sakamakon tvro ne mara kyau, saboda Siginar cewa ECB ya damu. A ranar Alhamis - ganawar ECB, da kuma sake tambaya ita ce cewa maimaitawa yana tunanin motsin ƙungiyoyi a cikin ɗaukakawa?

A kan USD - a ranar Laraba da Alhamis sune manyan gwanjo na 10- da 30-shekara Trezeris. A canjin gwanjo zai karfafa matsin lamba kan Trezeris, da kuma mataimakinsa, idan sun bude sosai, dukiyar masu haɗari za ta sami taimako. Yi rahoto kan hauhawar farashin kaya a Amurka don Fabrairu, an shirya sakin ranar Laraba. Yin la'akari da sabon bayanan NFP, wataƙila abin mamaki shine zai iya tallafawa hawa kan gyaran USD.

Arthur Idiyaying, mai lura da kasuwar banki

Karanta abubuwan asali na asali akan: zuba jari.com

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