Despite the crisis, the fall in income of the population and flow of savings on the stock market, citizens carried money to Sberbank: over the past year, their funds rose by 11.6% without taking into account the currency revaluation and reached 15.7 trillion rubles, it is said in its reporting on RAS. . It is even more than in 2019, when the funds of the population in the state bank without taking into account the currency revaluation added 4.7%.
The share of Sberbank in the means of individuals stably exceeds 40%, and what is happening in it quite well reflects the situation in the banking system. The Central Bank has not yet published statistics for the year, but on December 1, the funds of citizens (deposits and balances in accounts) in Russian banks rose not so much - by 6.2% to 32.4 trillion rubles. This result includes the nominal increase in currency deposits due to the fall of the ruble, without currency revaluation, the growth is less. However, in December, the funds of the population in banks are traditionally growing: before the New Year's holidays, salaries and pensions are paid early.
Mortgage, Exchange, AccountA significant contribution to the increase in the funds of citizens in banks included escrow accounts: from 137 billion at the beginning of the year they rose to 1 trillion rubles. on December 1st. The growing residues on Eskrow's accounts provided 2/3 gross growth of ruble funds in banks, calculated analysts of the National Rating Agency (NRA) according to the Central Bank for January - October. Often, customers are transferred to the escroy account accounts just from the same deposits, spoke Vtimes analyst Fitch Anton Lopatin: It turns out a decline in one graph and growth in another, although money remains inside the banking system.
But deposits are reduced along with rates: according to the Central Bank, by 1.7 trillion rubles. For 11 months - from 22.9 trillion to 21.2 trillion rubles. At the end of the term of deposits, especially currency, people have become less common to open new ones. But dramatically increased residues on current accounts - from 7.5 trillion to 10.3 trillion rubles. The reason for the growth of the population was primarily the growth of funds for escrow, as well as accumulative accounts, says Senior Managing Director of the NKR Rating Agency Alexander Proclov: And if the first are the necessary part of financing the purchase of housing, including at the expense of mortgage programs, then the second are of interest. From the point of view, it is more flexible to control the invested means in low deposit rates.
Sberbank showed a significant increase in other banks and, taking into account the current economic situation, recognizes the managing director for the validation of the Expert RA Agency Yuri Belikov. But it is necessary to disassemble what accounts it is provided, and the negotiable statement on January 1, Sberbank has not yet published. In the second half of the year 2020, in the deposit accounts of individuals in Sberbank there was a multidirectional speaker, an expert notes: monthly growths were restrained, and in November there was a significant pure outflow. The positive dynamics of retail liabilities was ensured by the increase in funds on current accounts: people did not hurry to reissue the ending contributions taking into account the fallen returns.
In Sberbank in December, I acted (and so far) Promovklad for new customers and those who did not take money from deposits in recent months - with rates up to 4.5% per annum. In addition, until December 15, the Bank acted a retail seasonal contribution with a rate of 3.6-4% per annum (except for branches).
In the third quarter, real disposable revenues of Russians continued to fall - by 4.8% in annual terms, Rosstat reported. The statistics of the income and expenses of Russians are distorted by taking into account the escrow accounts and the abundant investment of Russians into securities, wrote analysts of the Central Bank (their opinion may not coincide with the position of the Central Bank). In the stock market, Russians hold about 7 trillion rubles, or approximately 20% of the funds in banks.
But the choice of investment tools for unqualified investors is not too wide (even more so taking into account the new restrictions of the Central Bank), Belikov notes. Therefore, even when closing deposits, the funds do not leave the banks instantly. However, in 2021, the trend with a high probability will continue, the expert notes: we will see the real net outflows of funds while the citizens are alternatives to invest, such as the stock market. The process will stretch in time, we do not expect a one-time stress of liquidity, especially since the sector supports its considerable reserve. In the coming year-one and a half of bank deposits on the stock market, 3-3.5 trillion rubles led, the general director of Accra Mikhail Sukhov. The national rating agency predicted a flow of 3.4 trillion rubles, but on the horizon of five years.
Crisis - time to saveWhy is the decline in bets on deposits, flow of money on the stock exchange and a crisis that has reduced incomes of the population, only accelerated the growth of savings in banks?
The growth of savings in 2020 - a global phenomenon, notes the chief economist "VTB Capital" on the CIS and Russia Alexander Isakov. So, in the US, two months after the start of the pandemic, the deposits rose on a record $ 1.8 trillion (data of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). The growth of savings is characteristic of periods of instability - people are less confident in their income, try to spend less and accumulate liquidity supply, explains Isakov. In crises, the rate of savings is always growing, the chief analyst of Alfa-Bank Natalia Orlova agrees. For example, in 2015, the population sent a record 14.1% of income in savings.
Savings grew in those for whom the crisis did not hit: their revenues in 2020 were not very affected, and the costs declined. So, the refusal of travel saved the population of 1.5 trillion rubles, assessed the Central Bank. Therefore, the rate of savings in the second quarter, when a hard quarantine acted, amounted to a record 18.2%, and in the third fell up to 2%.
Another reason is the state support and mortgage, considers Chief Economist ing in Russia and the CIS Dmitry Dumpkin. According to NRA analysts, social payments to people distorted the statistics of population contributions by 290 billion rubles.