In 2021, Belarus is waiting for important events: for February, the All-Belarusian People's Assembly is appointed, on which the draft change of the Constitution will be discussed. Then, after his approval, a referendum should take place on the adoption of a new fundamental law, after which the President of the Republic Alexander Lukashenko, according to his own words, plans to leave the post. In the meantime, opposition protests continues in the country, adding concerns by official Minsk against the background is not yet a subsided pandemic and economic crisis. What will help the authorities of Belarus to cope with the situation, in an interview with Eurasia.Expert predicted a guest professor MGIMO, Researcher of the Institute of European Studies (Belgrade) Stewan Gayich.
- Mass protests in Belarus continue for 5 months. What has changed during this time?
- In fact, the world community has already lost interest in the events in Belarus, because they continue for a very long time. The intensity of the protests decreased, but there are so many other, more important issues. So Belorussia, if we consider it through the prism of world events, is not so important.
- How, in your opinion, political events in Belarus will continue to develop?
- The only logical exit for power in Belarus is just a change to the game that the elections are no longer the theme. It is a more dense integration with Russia or union, because the power of Lukashenko in Belarus has become absolutely unacceptable for Western partners.
Complete insulation, which was survived, for example, Yugoslavia in the 90s, is very hard and in the long term can only increase conflict potential within society. I think that the only logical output from the point of view of power would be united with Russia. This would reduce the tension in the Belarusian society, as citizens who are opposed to the power of Lukashenko opposed themselves more comfortably in a large political society as a united state with Russia. More comfortably than in the conditions of this Belarus.
- How did events in Belarus affect her relationship with Serbia?
"After Serbia joined the condemnation of Belarus by the European Union, and the Prime Minister of Serbia made a scandalous proposal to" not be offended ", which is absolutely non-serious for the state, the authorities of Serbia simply do not want to deal with this issue. They are uncomfortable to do this for a number of political reasons.
So far, everything will be frozen until any political permission occurs. One way or another, cooperation in various fields, including defense, will continue. Although, I should note that Serbia at the last moment refused to participate in military exercises in Belarus called "Slavic Brotherhood", which actually caused a scandal.
- Recently, Serbia and Belarus discussed prospects for cooperation between their ministries of defense. How is the military-technical cooperation of both countries develop today? What are his prospects?
- I think that there is no alternative to further military cooperation with Belarus and Russia for Serbia, because all our defense, even from a strategic point of view, was aimed at Soviet weapons, and then on modern Russian weapons. Since Serbia is surrounded by NATO member countries, observing neutrality, it must cooperate with Russia and Belorussia.
Recently, the Minister of Defense Stefanovich said that Serbia should have soldiers to have an army. In fact, it was a hint of previous ministers, but perhaps also confirmation that the wages of the military will be higher, and in the general the army will be strengthened. This is a very difficult point that speaks that collaboration can continue.
But the policy that Vuchich leads is absolute schizophrenia, because this policy contradicts itself. In parallel with the highest level of cooperation with NATO there are attempts of military cooperation with Russia.
On the other hand, it showed that when discontent appeared, Serbia was already ready to interrupt agreed military exercises. As "Slavic Brotherhood" in Belarus. This largely talks about the nature of power in Serbia. Nevertheless, I think that some projects will really continue, because more Migi should be brought from Belarus. We, one way or another, expect to continue military cooperation.
- On October 25, 2019, a free trade agreement was signed between the EAEU and Serbia. How is the work going on his implementation by Serbia?
- Frankly, so far nothing special happens at the moment. Especially with the fact that the global economy stopped. The whole world is in the terrible state of waiting.
- What are the plans for Serbia regarding further integration into the EAEU in the format of an observer country or a full member?
- Serbia has been conducting a European integration policy for almost 20 years, which led to a dead end. There will be no new chapters in the issue of Serbia's membership in the European Union. That is, the procedure is suspended. Temporarily, Serbia does not completely try to integrate into any direction. I don't expect anything colossal in the near future.