Ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, abahlalutyi bomhlaba onokodonga babonakala ngathi bafuna omnye komnye kwimilinganiselo yokwaluphala ngokusekwe kulindelo olukhawulezileyo kwezoqoqosho emva kokuphela kwe-pandemic kunye nokususwa kwawo onke amanyathelo angqongqo. Umenzi wesiqingatha sokuqala seGoldman Sachs $ 70 nge-Barrel Brent, ethi uninzi lweenyanga ezidlulileyo, zazaliseka ngo-Matshi 8 nge-8 kaMatshi. Ioyile ibuyiselwe kumanqanaba apho watsibela kumanqanaba okuqala kaJanuwari, apho wayerhweba emva kokubulawa kwabantu baseMelika bakaKsir Kassem bodwa, xa i-World East yanikezela kwibhalansi, kwaye abathathi-nxaxheba kwimakethi babekho Ukulinda ukunyuka kwenkcaso yenkcaso ye-United States ne-Iran. Kuvela kuloo mgangatho xa isigameko sasingayi kufumana uphuhliso, ukwehla kweoyile kwaqala ukuwa kokubiyela ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yemvume ye-OSCC kunye nokuwa kwemfuneko ngenxa yemfuno Yehla ngokusetyenziswa kweoyile kwihlabathi elibangelwe yindawo yokuhlala, okokuqala kubo bonke - kunye nokuvalwa kwe China.
Ndingathini malunga namaxabiso ngoku? Ngaba kufanelekile, nokuba ulinde ukukhula kwixesha elizayo? Kuba i- $ 100 iphinde iba yinto yokwenene kwixesha elide kunye nexesha eliphakathi (kwi-the the the the the the the rizine yonyaka okanye ezimbini). Uninzi lukholelwa ukuba luqale "izinto ezinqabileyo eziluhlaza". Kuxhatshazwa kule meko ukuba aba bantu bathile sele bephithisile ukuba ioyile ayisayi kuba yi-100 ngemizi-mveliso ye-United States ayinakuze ivume ukuba yinto yokwenene. Uya kuzalisa imakethi yeoyile esele ingama-80, akukhathaleki ukuba ingakanani i-saudi kunye neRussias) ayithinteli.
Isihloko sinemilinganiselo emibini: ixesha elifutshane - kulo nyaka, kunye nexesha elide - kwithuba elininzi leminyaka. Thelekisa amanqaku amabini: Ukuqala kukaJanuwari 2020 nangoku. Kwaye ke, kwaye ngoku ioyile yeBrent yayimalunga ne-70 yeedola. Yayiyintoni imvelaphi emva koko?
1. Emva koko ulinde ukwanda kweengxabano kwi-Middle East, ngoku amathemba okubuyiselwa kwentengiselwano yenyukliya yase-US kunye ne-Iran kuya kusiba ngakumbi, okuya kukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamanye amazwe i-Irania. Into ye-geopolical ayiqinisekanga ngamaxabiso akhoyo.
2. Kwaye emva koko, kwaye ngoku isivumelwano + sokusebenza + sasisebenza, kodwa izithintelo bezingaphantsi kakhulu kunangoku. Ngoku kukho i-quartas engqongqo ngakumbi, kwaye uSaudi wasusa enye yezigidi ezili-1, usuku kwintengiso, echaza ukuba afuna ukuqhubela phambili ukunciphisa isitokhwe. Umgaqo-nkqubo we-OSC + ngoku unomdla kumaxabiso aphezulu aphezulu.
3. Ibango lehlabathi lingapheli ngamaxabiso akhoyo, isibango sehlabathi asikafiki, izithintelo zendawo yokuhlala ziseYurophu, zisiba mbi, kwiiveki zakutshanje umbuzo kwakhona malunga nokuziphakamisa kwakhona. Nangona kunjalo, ngoku kukho ulindelo lokubuyiselwa kwemfuno yamanqanaba angaphambi kwengxaki emva kokuphela kobhubhane. Kuya kuba ufuna ukufunyanwa kungekudala, umbuzo. I-China, emaphethelweni asezantsi kwe- $ 50 kwi-Barrel nganye inyuse i-oyile enamanani amabini (ngemiba enamanani) nge-pace, ngoku sele yenzekile iminqweno yakhe - amanzi angenzi irabha. Umyinge wemfuno ngoku kwaye ekuqaleni kwe-2020th ayiphelelanga amaxabiso akhoyo. Kodwa ukuba ucinga ukuba imakethi ihlala ilindelo, unokumxolela "ngebhareyini nganye, ukuba uyakholelwa ukuba i-chidemic izokuphela.
4. Into ebalulekileyo yemakethi yempahla ngumgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kunye nesalathiso sedola. Ngokuqinisekileyo kukho yonke imibandela eyakhiwe ngezinto eziphezulu zoluhlaza. UFed qinisekisa iqondo le-zero kude kube kwinqanaba le-intengo ukuya kwi-2%. Ngaphezu koko, ukuba kwi-2% edlulileyo, ibiyi-2% okwangoku, ngoku i-2%, kukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuhamba okuninzi, kubalwa kwisiseko sexesha leminyaka emi-5. Ukuba sicinga ukuba i-2% yayingeyonto yangaphambi kwengxaki, umnqweno onamandla we-2% ngokomndilili uya kukhokelela kwiminyaka embalwa, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokuba ngaphezulu kwe-2%. Amaxabiso okwenyani kwi-United States kwizixhobo zentengiso yemali kunokwenzeka ukuba uhlale unetyala kakhulu. Ukukhula kwenzuzo yedola, ekususela ekuqaleni konyaka ixhalabile kubatyali-mali kwaye ucaphukise i-Pollar Index sibuyele ngepesenti ezingama-92, okanye siyekile, okanye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Isalathiso sedola kufuneka iqhubeke ukwehla. Idola ebuthathaka yeyona meko iphambili yokukhula kwamaxabiso ezithuthi, yayikwidola ebuthathaka ukuba ioyile ikhule ekuqaleni kwe-00s kwaye ibeka idola yakhe ubuncinci.
5. Nangona kunjalo, okomzuzwana idola eqiniswe kolondolozo lokuqhubeka kokukhula kwesivuno seDollar, kwaye isivuno sokwenyani siyakhula.
Ngokuchasene nesiqinisekiso sobuncwane, abatyali-mali baqala ukoyike ukuba abo bondli baya kunyanzelwa ukuba baphakamise ukubheja ngaphambi kwexesha lokuphepha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Okwangoku iimeko zemali zithambekele. Ukukhula kwexeshana nexesha elincinci ledola akunakukhetha amaxabiso omzimba, kwaye ukuba imeko ayiguqukeli kwiintsuku ezizayo, emva koko ioyile, ebonakala ikhula ngokukhuselekileyo, mhlawumbi ilungisiwe.
6. Imigodi ye-shale, esekuqaleni kwe-2020, esele ihleli ihleli, kwaye kwi-70 yeedola kwi-barrel nganye ($ 66 nge-wti) iya kukhula. Inani leerigs ezikhoyo ezikhoyo eUnited States ngokwe-baker hughes, enyuka ehlobo.
Intengiselwano yakutshanje ingabhalwa kwi-Aunts Maleure eTexas, xa icandelo elibalulekileyo lokuma ngenxa yokubanda kakhulu. Iya kubuyiselwa ngokukhawuleza. Inqaku le-shale-ngokuchasene nokukhawulezisa amaxabiso, kuya kuthi, ubuncinci, ukuthintela ukukhula kwawo.
Sisiphi isishwankathelo sabo bonke izinto ezidwelisiweyo ngekamva eliphambi kwehlobo? Ngaba amaxabiso aya kukhula, okanye ukukhula kuyakuyeka ngoku, kwaye siya kubona ukulungiswa? Kunzima kakhulu ukuqikelela ukubaluleka kokubaluleka kwayo yonke into, ngakumbi kuba ukwazi ukuba ubunzima babatyali-mali yinto enye, enye iqala ukudlala eyona ndima ibalulekileyo. Isihlwele sasikholelwa kwixesha elithi "Ikamva eliqaqambileyo" emva kokuba ubhubhane, emva koko, ngokuchaseneyo, uqala ukukholelwa ukuba emva kwebhulukhwe, i-Apocalypse ye-incase iya kuqala. Ngapha koko, zombini iinkolelo zinokubakho ngoxolo ngokuhambelana, kodwa kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo, umzekelo, zikhokelele kwi-phenomeno yokukhula kwe-oyile kwi-formar - ngelixa abathengisi beeoyile ", abarhwebi be-forex isoyikiswa kukukhula kwenzuzo.
Nangona kunjalo, siya kuzama ... masiqale ngemfuno kunye ne-OSGC +. Ukusena malunga ne-fiasco kunyaka ophelileyo, i-OPC + inomdla wokuzilolonga, kwaye endaweni yoko ikukhathalela kunokuba kukhubekile. Izigidi zeendidi ezisuswe nguSaudis ngokuzithandela ukusuka kwimarike, zidlala indima ye-Whip kunye ne-gingerbread ngexesha elinye. Ukuba uninzi lwe-Opec + luyathetha ngokuchasene nomgca we-Arab, abayi kufumana nje imveliso nje, kodwa nokubuya kwesi sigidi kwintengiso. Ngexesha elifutshane, kunokwenzeka, ama-Arabhu avela kwi-Maneuver engaphulukani ayiyi kuphulukana nantoni na, kodwa abo banyanzelisa imveliso eyandayo-izakuthathela ingqalelo ngenxa yokuwahluka kwemveliso. Isikhundla se-saudis kwi-Opect + ibonakala yomelele, kwaye ziya kuqhubeka nokunyanzelisa iimeko zabo zokuvelisa kancinci. Badlala amaxabiso anyukayo, kwaye lo mdlalo wenziwa, kunokwenzeka, kwisandla esinye kunye notyalo-mali esitratweni seWall Streen, othi "spinning" isihloko sexabiso lonyuka. Kutheni le nto i-saudi, ukudala iimeko zexabiso elinyukayo, ukungazenzi ngokubheja koku kukhula kwi-CME ukuze ifumaneke kwaye phaya? I-OPC STRT + ihlawula kwaye iyaqhubeka nokuhlawula into ebuthathaka yemfuno. Siya kuthi, ngokunxulumene noku, cinga ukuba izinto ezi-2 kunye no-3 kuluhlu lungasentla ngoku.
Izinto zokuthumela kwe-Iran, iSlate yaseMelika kunye nenqanaba lemarike yemali yedola. Into enokuqikelelwa kakuhle apha apha yi-shale ye-shale ye-shale kunye nezemali kwi-United States kwi-theyan enkulu. Imigodi iya kukhula, kwaye umgaqo-lawulo wemali uya kuhlala uthambile. Kwindawo enkulu yezi zinto zinokwenzeka ukuba zilungelelane ngandlela thile. Ngo-2018, idola ebuthathaka ye-uqhuba i-oyile ye-oyile ukuya kwindawo eyi- $ 80 ye-barrel. Isalathiso sedola, emva koko kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka wayezinzile ngaphantsi kwe-90. Ukuba uyakholelwa kwi-Fed, unokukholelwa ukuba i-Doldir Index iya kubuyela kwikamva elingezantsi kwe-90, kwaye iya kuba khona. Emva koko, ezinye izinto ezilinganayo, unokulindela ukuqhubeka nokukhula kwamaxabiso eoyile ukuya kwi-80 yeedola kwi-barrel nganye. Kutheni kungenjalo, kuba into efana nale yayisele idlulileyo? Ngaphezu koko, ngoku akukho xilongo, ngubani i-tweitter yakhe 'enokukhwaza "kwi-OPPC, ebakhuthaza ukuba banciphise amaxabiso, ukoyikisa, ekunciphiseni intsebenziswano emkhosini.
Ukuba i-iran ye-iran kunye nomqondiso (weoyile, kukwingqondo yokuba i-Iran iyonyusa ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe ngengqondo yokuba i-Iran iyonyusa ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe). Into ye-iran iyothusa idola ebuthathaka kunye nokukhula kwemveliso ye-shale, kwaye naziphi na iinzame zokukhulisa amaxabiso eoyile ziya kuba zibambekile kwenye indawo kuluhlu lwe- $ 70 ... nge-Barrel nganye nganye. Kodwa ukuba into ye-iran iya kudlala ekukhuleni kwengxwabangxwaba eMbindi Mpuma, emva koko ... emva koko imbali yokuqalisa kwe-00 inokuphinda. Xa imfazwe e-Iraq yasebenza njengomqhubi ophambili wokukhula kwamaxabiso e-oyile kwinqanaba lokuqala lomjikelo omtsha weshishini emva kokuba iqhushumbe igqibe kakhulu kwi-maxima kude kakhulu kwi-100 yeedola. Kwaye, qaphela, ioyile emva koko yakhula ngokuchasene nentengiso yentengiso yebhere e-United States, nangona, ekugqibeleni, wagqiba kunye newayiphepha yokugqibela ngo-2008.
Ke akukho nto ingenakwenzeka kwi-100 yeedola kwi-barrel nganye ukuba ipolisi yehlabathi, enye okanye enye, iya kukhokelela kwintlekele yasempuma ephakathi. Ngokuchasene nolo hlobo, kukho amava embali: Iidemokhrasi zaseMelika, ezithe zagqiba ngokupheleleyo amandla e-USA (uMongameli kunye nenkomfa), i-Congress), i-CANDICHERE . Kwelinye icala, kukho isilingo esikhulu sokubulala, ngokubonisa ngokufuziselayo, kwi-oyile enye ye-hares ezimbini: Ukuthoba ukukhula kwe-china, ukuba abantu baseMelika ngokwabo babhengeza ukubanakho, kwaye ukuxhasa ngemali ekufuphi nedemokhrasi Intliziyo yamandla aluhlaza. Ukuba ioyile ibuya ngaphezulu kwe- $ 100 ye-goarrel nganye, iya kuba yeyona nto ibalaseleyo yokwala ipetroli ipetroli ipetroli ye-ofisi yenkxaso-mali.
Makhe sibone ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika uza kuphuhliswa njani. Ngelixa kubonakala ngathi zizinto ezopolitiko ezimisela ukuqhubekeka ngakumbi kwendlela yexabiso le-oyile, kuba ezoqoqosho, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo ye-OSC +, okanye sele ziyenza kwikamva layo kungekudala.
I-DMIMMMICY GMMMICYSKY DG "Kalisi-EzeMali"
Funda amanqaku asekuqaleni: