The January jump for gasoline prices on the wholesale market by 11% Although almost and did not get to the dressing, but it can force the government this year to increase the payments to oil workers to stabilize the fuel market, told Vtimes two people familiar with the course of discussing these plans.
These are the so-called damper surcharges that officials came up in 2018 during the take-off of gasoline prices. Logic is this: if oilmen is more profitable to export gasoline and diesel, the state pays for them by stimulating the supply to the domestic market and stabilizing prices. In the inverse situation of the company themselves pay extra in the budget. True, the benefits of the officials are determined not actual, but the calculated: from the export netback (the export price minus transportation costs and taxes) is subtracted not the price of the domestic market, but the conditional specified in the law. 68% of this difference and receive or company, or the state.
The decision to increase the payments was made back in October last year at a meeting at the Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov (in November, by the Vice-Prime Minister Alexander Novak, former Minister of Energy), but only from 2022, they say two people who read the protocol. For this, Borisov instructed to reduce the indexation of the conditional price from the current 5% per year.
Formally, more payments will be able to receive both oilmen and the state. But in the absence of anomalies like a pandemic and with relatively high cracking spreads (the difference between the price of petroleum products and oil), the budget begins to pay oil workers at a price of about $ 50 per barrel, says Chief Economist Vygon Consulting Sergey Ezhov.
The decision for 2021 was failed due to the position of the Ministry of Finance, tells one of the interlocutors. Now the budget has more priority expenses than support for petroleum companies, Vtimes said a representative of the ministry.
But on January 28, at a meeting of Novak on the situation in the fuel market, oilmen and the Ministry of Energy again plan to raise the issue of changing the damper already this year, says one of the interlocutors of VTimes. The precedent of such manual control is already available: for example, in 2018, due to the rise in prices, the government reduced excise taxes in the middle of the year, he explains.
The Ministry of Energy, indeed, there is an idea to reduce price indexing already this year, and the ministry will try to prolobrify it, says a person close to the government.
The meeting will be accurately discussed at the meeting, this is announced in the invitation, says one of the participants of the meeting on January 28. NOVAKA "Any market stabilization measures can be discussed," says another interlocutor close to the government.
Representatives of Borisov, Novak and the Ministry of Energy did not respond to Vtimes requests.
Why prices jumpedIn winter, oil companies fell into an unpleasant situation. Since the end of December, by January 13, export nets on gasoline (AI-92) took off by 14% to 54,093 rubles / t, and supply fuel abroad again became more profitable than selling in Russia. According to logic, the state should have surcharged by stimulating the supply to the domestic market. But the conditional price of the domestic market by law increased even more - 5% to 56,300 rubles / t. Therefore, now the companies will have to pay to the budget.
To reduce the losses of oil workers attempted to increase and real wholesale prices in the market: by January 21, they rose by 11% to 53,174 rubles. per ton. If the state is lifting conditional prices, companies will respond in response and wholesale prices in the domestic market, says the general director of the Issues of Commodity Markets Mikhail Turukallov. "The damper is in itself a danger forever consolidate the factor of continuous pushing the wholesale prices up," the independent sectoral analyst Viktor Kostyukov agreed (Quote on Interfax).
Drying with the damper happened before, and the officials had to adjust its formula. But now the problem is not in the damper, but in reducing the crack spreads to petroleum products in world markets (that is, too low increase in prices for petroleum products compared to oil. - VTIMES), spoke to Interfax Deputy Minister Alexei Sazanov. The budget cannot afford every time temporary adjustments in this mechanism, depending on the situational price situation in world markets, Vtimes said the representative of the Ministry of Finance. Otherwise, it will have to look for other sources to compensate for these drop-down income, he explains (usually the ministry in response offered to raise other taxes for oil companies. - VTIMES). According to the Ministry of Finance, oilmen will again be able to earn money on the damper in February.
How many can oil workersOfficials and companies actively discussed how to reduce the indexation of conditional base prices in the Dempfection formula in December last year, there are two VTIMES interlocutor. The proposed options retain the relevance, one of them adds.
Ideal - to tie the pace to the real rate of price increases for gas stations (2.6% in 2020, according to Rosstat), and if it does not work, then at least to inflation (in 2020 - 4.9%, the forecast for 2021 Year - 3.7%), they tell both.
In the first case, oil companies will be able to additionally get 67-69 billion rubles. per year, depending on how much the demand for petroleum products will be recovered, he counted hedges. And if the indexation is corrected, based on the planned inflation at 2021, the annual winning companies will be about 33 billion rubles.
For comparison: in 2019, oil workers received 304 billion rubles from the budget., And in 2020, 401 billion rubles were paid to the budget, evaluates the heels.
Of course, the company would like to index the base prices at the level of gas station prices, concludes one of the vescers of VTimes. On January 27, this was confirmed by journalists by Gazprom Neft Alexander Dyukov. According to him, the indexation is needed "in accordance with the real market situation." If the price has increased by 1.5-2% in retail, then the wholesale price indexing must also be 2%, "he explained (quote by" Interfax ").
Increased conditional base prices should be synchronized with the growth of retailers, otherwise the oilmen will constantly inflate the market to keep the margin of oil refining, says turokals.