Dollar falls after the holidays

Anonim

Dollar falls after the holidays 9181_1
The first week of spring passed for the ruble vigorously, but strictly in small: the rate was rushed from one side to another, but the amplitude of the oscillations eventually amounted to less than 2%. Such a picture is quite natural for unstable balance, in which Russian currency is already located for about a month. Factors of influence balancing each other. From one, the side of the parties - the Central Bank, hinted at the possibility of raising rates, the next sanction "pshik" and the current oil. On the other hand, the anti-lubble - refusing to grow further the Mosbier index and the growth of profitability on the bonds of developed countries (the latter delayed the attention of investors from more profitable, but also more risky Russian OFZs).

As a result, the term dynamics varies from minor events (such as the publication of American sanctions), and even at all without an external reason, but the pair of the dollar-ruble remains within the range of 73,20-75. But this week was able to gain the euro below the level of 88.90, from which, as a rule, bounced up the last two months - this happened as a result of the overlapping of the ruble and reducing the euro itself.

By the way, the next mini takes a dollar (from 73.9 to 74.70), which completes this trading week, caused by no weakness of the ruble, but exclusively the growth of the dollar itself against the background of the speech of the head of the Fed, surprisingly the market is not enough rhetoric, and statistics on The US labor market, which had better predictions. However, the fundamental force does not give the dollar, and next week we will probably see the opposite movement. Only some wires can prevent this when approving the long-awaited anti-crisis package (in its framework, almost two trillion dollars will be thrown into the market, which is already on expectations, pushes the American currency to reduce the cost), but it is unlikely.

The main scenario on the coming week looks like a decline in the dollar to 73.40-74 rubles. Since March 8 is celebrated on the day off in Russia only in Russia, Tuesday's bid, most likely, will open with a sharp drop in this pair - it will be necessary to "catch up" Western markets. The euro at the week will fluctuate within 88.40-90 rubles, until the end of March, from this currency, you can wait for short-term output above 91.

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