The expert warned of the new global crisis due to debts

Countries are waiting for economic growth after the start of mass vaccination from coronavirus, you are confident optimistic experts. At the same time, pessimists insist on the fact that there are no prerequisites for sustainable growth. In addition, the Fed will soon stop the stimulating monetary policy, which means that the markets are waiting for big shocks, the Forbes Observer Alexander Orlov is sure.

He recalled that the Fed Policy with its growing rates and the desire to normalize credit and monetary policy was concerned about the fear back in 2019. Already then, according to Orlov, a financial crisis was inevitable, but Koronavirus came "to salvation", which they wrote off all the troubles.

"That is, states began to print so much currency as needed. With the help of such a measure, the current problems of state budgets and to move corporate loans, "the analyst said. Said greed

It was possible to solve some of the problems, according to Orlov, it was possible with the help of "helicopter money", however, the Central Bank adopted as accustomed: 7.5 trillion dollars were printed in 2020 and bought most of the quality bonds from the market. This led to the fact that the volume of bonds traded with negative return reached a record 17.5 trillion dollars.

Therefore, private investors had to look for profitability, despite its quality, since they do not have the opportunity to pay extra for ownership of their obligations.

"However, the search was not quite blind, and the cycle of bankruptcies began in the economy, although in a multiple scale than during the Great Recession of 2008," says Orlov.

According to him, while the situation is similar to the credit mini-cycles of 2005-2006, he is sure.

The analyst also compared the current state of affairs in the global economy with the credit collapse of 2008-2009, when the number of bankruptcies was at the maximum of more than a year. At the moment, the situation is improving, because more and more creditors' investors intend to make concessions to borrowers, cancel Covenants and agree to voluntary restructuring.

According to the observer, there is a significant similarity with all the previous crises. It lies in the fact that banks have significantly tightened credit requirements, and therefore the bond market has become the main channel of the increase in borrowing.

Results of the development of the loan market in 2020

According to Orlova, quarantine, recession and the fall in oil prices led to a significant deterioration in the already low credit quality of most borrowers in developed markets.

"There was no such scale and speed of deterioration in past crises," he states.

The borrowing market was not collapsed for one reason: it will promptly receive 7.5 trillion dollars to feed from the world central banks. Because of this, investors began to seek the yield in the most risky segments of the debt market, says Orlov.

The cycle bankruptcy due to ambitious stimulation turned out to be soft, which led to the emergence of a set of "zombie companies".

"These firms exist only thanks to the elongation of repayment and granting periods for interest, and operating activities are financed by even greater debt growth," the observer explained.

Also, according to Orlov, the deficit of demand by financial institutions was several times overlapped by the growth of demand from the bond market and stocks. The fact is that there were placed financial instruments about 6.5 trillion dollars, and this in some components twice the levels of 2019.

Previously, the experts told bankiros.ru why the dollar is called "bubble" and when he "burst".