Multi-resumed Vladimir Milovidov, under the ready leadership of which I had the honor to work for several years for the benefit of the financial regulator, saw the WSB community attacks (WallStreetBets) at the Wall Street shark formation of a new financial market model. Despite the pleasant memories of collaboration, I can not agree with him.
Different valuesThe construction of a mass speculative interest in the category "System of new social values" is unexpectedly, and the mixing of this interest with the principles of sustainable finances is not at all. In fact, the value system underlying the rapid growth of sustainable finances (the global amount of responsible investments for 2006-2019 increased from $ 7 trillion to $ 86 trillion), opposite to short-term speculative interest. One of the main elements of the concept of sustainable finance besides the mentioned combination of the desire for profits with the desire for environmental and social well-being is the formation of long-term cost. This concept offers a number of measures aimed at improving the investment horizon, which, in case of their implementation, can seriously reduce the attractiveness of short-term speculation.
Put in corner
Describing the rise of the Gamestop quotes, many use the term "short-skil", but in this situation it is important that he came as a result of the corner. This is exactly the name of the sharp deficit of available papers, most often arising from the result aimed at creating such a situation of buying. The short-seater is a situation where the players who have taken a short position (selling the paper that they lend from a broker), fearing further losses from the growth of the stock course, begin to reduce the positions, whining the paper.
Short Skviz is not always a consequence of the corner, but in the case of Gamestop it was exactly so. On January 15, the total short position for these shares was 121% of the total number of these shares in free handling, which uniquely points to the corner as the root cause of the short-sow. It is in such situations that the movement of courses may be the most powerful - on this, in fact, a choice of shares for the WSB attack and other "small network predators" are built. Finding an asset with a corner, they begin Rambling - massive buying in order to increase the price.
If you look for a multitude of small speculators on the attack that happened to the ideology (which, in my opinion, it is not at all necessary), I would rather agreed with another veteran of the Russian financial market, Evgeny Kogan, who called George Soros "the ideological father of this Show "- organized manipulation. But here it takes a large reservation - Soros, choosing a target for attack, relied on a fundamental analysis, which is not in the "WSB show" and their like.
Seven troubles - one answerUnfortunately, there are few people talking about all these search for ideology about the fundamental reasons for what is happening. From this point of view, the speculative attacks "Homyachkov" is a direct consequence of the monetary policy of the largest central banks. Both of its current features (in comparison with the policies of the previous almost century - abnormalities) - a large number of issued money and low rates - radically increase the possibility of forming bubbles in the markets of financial assets. This money is looking for use and find it primarily in the financial market, especially in the conditions of stagnation of the real sector. Low rates predetermine the extremely high value of the theoretical value of securities and some other financial assets (using the simplest, "from the textbook", versions of the calculation of such a value can take it into infinity).
Central banks, for most of which, after 2009, the function of ensuring financial stability is obviously not ready to perform this function. The leading central banks in their reports invariably repeat that they see the vulnerability of financial stability, including the strong revolatos of many assets, but continue the policies of quantitative easing, apparently, believing that they will have "turn over" to some "critical" moment. In this case, under the critical moment, inflation is understood. All central banks, targeting inflation, stated that they will turn the policy of quantitative easing only after the sustainable excess of the inflation of some level.
But along with a low growth rate of consumer prices, there is a promotion of "inflation of assets", which, when conducting monetary policies, is not taken into account now. It seems that at the same time ensure the price and financial stability of central banks in modern conditions are unable. Moreover, arguing about financial stability, many of them still see only one of its risk - the liquidity of the banking sector. Accordingly, they know only one tool for ensuring financial stability - lending to commercial banks in central, i.e. An even greater infusion of money in the financial system. Only recently began to appear on the risks of financial stability as a risk complex that affect not only and not so much the banking sector as non-bank financial organizations and financial markets as a whole. But how many consensus ideas about the tools of opposition to these risks do not yet exist.
The issues affecting the foundations of the institutional and functional organization of financial regulation are becoming increasingly relevant. Is it appropriate to combine in the same body Targeting inflation with financial stability? Should monetary policy have financial stability as a goal? What policies other than monetary and prudential can be used to maintain financial stability? It is these questions that will ask a discussion about financial stability in the near future, and the answer to the problem of "evil speculative hamsters" will depend on the answers.
The author's opinion may not coincide with the position of the VTIMES edition.