In January 2021, the leading Russian economists were going to the traditional Gaidar Forum. 50 thousand participants and 150 hours of the program in two business days in a trend distance format are a record of recent years. However, the palette of opinions narrowed - almost no one sees for Russia any optimistic development scenarios. At best, everything will remain no worse than today. But this is not a fact.
Everywhere wedge
Few people doubt that Russia will remain largely closed by the country. The flow of foreign investment does not threaten us due to the reduction of income of the population, a vigilant judicial system, the All-Russian Officials, unpredictable foreign policy and probable new sanctions. The Ministry of Finance has no reserves to reduce taxes and overlapping business activity. Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Sazanov foggy suggested "to assess the effectiveness of the tax benefits already provided, primarily those that are investment." This means that the tax collar for hardly a live business can be more stricter. And errors when entering the digital ruble are able to dispersed inflation.How the markets will behave after the removal of coronavirus restrictions - the grandmother has been told. On the one hand, it promises a return to the usual business rhythm. On the other hand, a significant part of the business is disappointed with the strengthening of authoritarianism for the time of the pandemic - and it can cause the capal facing capital, entrepreneurs and specialists, the borders with the European Union or the United States will barely become wide. In 2014-2015 It was about hundreds of billions of dollars seized from the real sector of the economy, and about 150-200 thousand emigrants per year.
According to the head of the Ministry of Labor Anton Kotyakova, now in Russia, about 3.7 million people are working remotely, which is about 6% of all employed in the country. And in the perspective of two or three years, remote employment indicators will grow to a level of 10% of the working. This will help reduce the costs of many companies, but fill out office real estate and passenger transport markets. Naturally, relative to the "dock" level.
One of the richest people in Russia, the owner of Severstali Alexey Mordashov expressed concern about the conversations about even greater insulation of the country - right up to complete Avtarkia: "The question itself, whether we can refuse export-import activities, it seems strange. We are a country that is very dependent on export and import. If there are exports and imports tomorrow, the national economy will be squeezed into two times, about 50% of GDP is formed anyway on foreign economic operations. We just physically stand up. "
One of the determinants of growth, which does not depend on the political priorities of the Kremlin, could be the digitalization of the economy - no wonder the officials of all the masters delay our ear arguments about the "service state". Of course, the idea to avoid standing in all sorts of "live queues", our eternal hunting for certificates could improve the quality of life even in the absence of growing real incomes of people. However, digital amenities mean a new level of demand. As the Chief Executive Officer of the World Bank of Kristalina Georgiev, we do not know what to do with goods that lose their price in the digital world. And we have this essential part of the economy. Where to give, in particular, dozens of certificates of references? In good condition, digitalization means the transformation of the economy, which is impossible without direct investment, including from abroad. And who wants to invest, if we have a country-precipitated fortress?
In this case, inflate poor statistics is not a problem. In 2019, the Government of St. Petersburg reported on the growth of foreign investment on an unreal 25% per year. Although the city ran away by almost all Finnish business, the Ford auto giant closed. It turned out, in Smolny, loans taken by Russian companies in foreign banks were considered investment. Another story: In 2016, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Technical University Denis Manturov said that Russia overtook the US labor productivity. The secret turned out to be simple: the ruble collapsed twice - respectively, the country was twice as much more for one dollar.
Imitation of development
Basic thing: Economic growth in the country with a decreasing population is impossible. While futurologists hover the brain in the invasion of robots into industry, in reality there is a battle for labor resources - first of all for migrants. Governments are doing everything possible to worry women and older people - preferably to 70 years. According to this logic, it turns out that the Russian authority correctly raised the retirement age. But further it is nowhere to increase, and migrants from Central Asia Russia are still complaining of Russia.
Reforms succeed only when the population supports the reformer. Above the total chances of the country, which is restored after the crisis at the "fresh" leader, which is rather a charismatic from the people than three times a scientist, but incomprehensible technocrat. But after zeroing the Constitution in Russia, the "renewal of the political cycle" is not foreseen. And modernization under Vladimir Putin clearly does not look complete. On the first time of its presidency, Putin conducted the most important reforms: reduced the number of taxes from 200 to 16, replaced the multi-level income tax with a low single tax, dissolved the fiscal police, introduced new labor and land codes. In subsequent years, reforms were minimized, but the incomes of the population rose six times due to high oil prices and cheap foreign loans. Against the background of mass satisfaction, corruption, demagoga, couch, weaking business. In 2019, a thousand rubles "cost" only 416 rubles from the "Doveshop". And during the 2020th, the dollar rose again from 61 to 74 rubles.
By the number of billionaires, Russia ranks third in the world, and they control 16% of GDP - it is a lot. But even worse, the largest states are made in sectors focused on extracting rent (oil, gas, forest, construction). It means that in the country it does not matter with free competition, with an environment convenient for innovation, but is rich in the expense of political ties, allowing to receive state shipments and defensions for raw materials. And "good billionaires" is Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg, who managed to fully monetize their finds. Russian Zuckerberg is called Pavel Durov, and how the fate of his innovation in Russia has developed, is well known.
Why is the origin of wealth so important? Try to imagine the impossible - power has changed in Russia. The atmosphere of publicity returned, and the country with anger learned that all valuable in it belongs to certain families. The natural desire of the people is to convert all. Political forces with road maps will be on the horse. For the economy and investment, such climate - there is no place worse. As the head of the Morgan Stanley Ruchir Sharm, the head of the developing markets of Morgan Stanley writes, "If in good times to direct all the efforts to redistribute wealth, then it can slow down and make everyone poorer." That is, without redistribution in society there will be no consent, but in power - legitimacy. And for investment expropriation of expropriated - the worst climate of all possible.
Russia traditionally lives "development strategies" for 15-20 years ahead, none of which has never been fulfilled. The competent investor clearly knows that not a single country, the developing industry, has not yet managed to jump the stage of mass construction of factories for the manufacture of simple goods such as sneakers or down jackets. How should he treat the plans of the government of the country importing Orthodox icons from China, to launch 2 trillion rubles to "high-tech startups"?
Regarding the intervention of the state in the economy, Ruchir Sharm writes the following: "I first look at what kind of GDP makes state expenses to identify whether there is a serious deviation from the norm, and find out whether they are on a productive investment or rendering. Then I check whether the Government uses state companies and banks as instruments for artificial pumping and deterrence of inflation, and whether it encourages private companies or decides. " Sharma does not analyze Russian indicators, but it is not difficult without it.
We have 17-18% of government GDP, which is a little more than India, but three times less than the countries of the European Union. With modest investments, the share of the state in the economy is 70% - this means that private traders do not simply swirling, and also uroat in the sort. The third half-term credit industry is managed by one statebank subordinate to the Central Bank. Relief or productive investment? China for 12 years of growth has liquidated 73 million jobs at state enterprises, and Russia contains 33 million state employees. We have 10 times more employees in Gazprom than in the Dutch-British Shell, although the revenues of both companies are approximately the same.
For the investor, this is all extremely sad. It's like for a ferret cavalier to find out that the chosen is not reading books and does not wash, but it was shot in Porn and is not able to give birth. If there is only a long braid and spectacular kokoshnik on another scales, then what will one turn out?
It is no less important that Russia's authorities have nowhere to walk. In chess such a situation is called Pat. At the beginning of 2021, the Kremlin clearly made it clear that he would not tolerate the "non-systemic opposition". And he does not care what they think about this "Western partners". It is not necessary to hope that in the autumn elections in the State Duma, the forces standing on the guard of the interests of entrepreneurs can be defeated. On the contrary, we see the strengthening of the patriotic forces that directly declare their intention to take power and perform a "socialist turn". They talk about the court over capitalism that "censorship in the media and on the Internet - the norm", and "God has no other hand, except for ours." What will happen to investments if these figures benefit elections to the Russian parliament? The Kremlin understands everything, but he himself put himself in a situation where she is no longer for anyone.
For him, the most logical decision is to sit on the Pop smoothly. Make the population, cut the rent, train armed defenders and in all troubles to blame the "enemies of Russia" and "foreign agents". And the private investor let the channels pass by. They lived without him somehow 70 years.
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