Against the background of the detention of Alexei Navalny and uncoordinous rallies in his support, which were held in many cities of Russia, the risk of new sanctions against the country weakened the National Scale, Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis is given in a daily forecast, which is at the disposal of Bankiros.ru.
He reminded that at the end of last week, the ruble weakened to the dollar by 1.5 rubles, and the price of the "American" passed for 75 rubles per unit. That is, the effect of the force, which "Russian" scored during the payment of taxes, was completely leveled. At the same time, this effect is usually noticeable in the first quarter, when importing seasonally low. It turns out if the events around the Navalny turned around at the beginning of the month, the ruble would like stronger.
"As we have already noted in our comments from January 15, the equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble under oil is 55 dollars per barrel Brent (if oil had been maintained on this level on this level in the following 12m) is 68 rubles per dollar, that is, there is now a bonus in the course The amount of at least 6 rubles (and taking into account the seasonality, the actual award above), "said Pry.He said that the yield of OFZ also has a premium about 10%, and on Friday, bonds lost in price on average one percent, if you believe the price index of RGBI.
As for relations with the United States, Biden looks like rational and pragmatic in comparison with the same tripm. Therefore, to talk about tightening sanctions without support from leaders of European countries, namely, Germany and France, while early. The latter, by the way, last year already expressed their disagreement with US policy due to the lack of economic benefits.
At the same time, recent events can bring together Western countries, and they will develop a new joint package of sanctions. If the latter will be tough, in particular, we are talking about the ownership of new state securities of Russia or disconnecting from SWIFT, the country will face an additional outflow of capital genes 70-100 billion dollars per year, which will fall into the ruble bonus to the equilibrium level in the amount of 10-15 rubles.
It turns out that so far the ruble has yet enough positions for weakening - the limit has not yet been exhausted.