Just a year ago, March 16, I made almost a editorial article. Remember, colleagues? She was called "Coronaeconomics: the world will become different, but will survive." It was quite safe then to make forecasts about the appearance of some new reality: at the time of the release of the article, only 0.0015% of the world's population was infected. I still risked then.
In my article, I wrote not about the medical aspects of the problem (which turned out to be right: humanity took measures, and the "funeral tax" with earthlings were taken by a pandemic at a relatively low rate), and about the economy, government and IT sector. Including about "decay, up to a complete collapse, production systems of goods and services", about "thrombing, suspension of action, the destruction of logistics chains", about ruin and bankruptcy in a number of industries, etc. And the conclusion from the article will allow you to quote: "The world in general there are no superconductances and megamudrosts to optimally solve (...) some problems presented with a new reality."
I will try to risk again. And make a new forecast. Although I do not like these speeds of speech, but it will be quasiconpirological. Why "Quasi" - because I do not believe in the theory of the world conspiracy and in the demonic figure of Bill Gates or another representative of the conditional "world government" as the main initiator and the beneficiary of a pandemic. I will explain, by the way, why I do not believe. According to conspiracres, Gates very thinly and accurately predicted a pandemic, and at the same time he produces a product that the pandemic makes extremely popular. Thus, it would seem, there is a motive, and there are indirect evidence.
Before proceeding to your forecast, give a position on this issue. Predict the trend is not a crime. Gates probably missed the best university brains of both hemispheres of the planet, and with their intellectual assistance belonging to him, so to speak, by the main nature of the activity, the fastest computing devices, fed by high-quality big dates, really allow him better than most earthlings, "anticipate" the most likely Scenarios of the future and faster and more efficiently adapt to them. I am afraid that in this part it is possible to blame him only if it has been proven that he could not resist use of insider data, let's say, from civil servants or medical institutions.
But the only beneficiary of the notorious chipization as "business on a pandemic" to me to name Gates or someone else is very difficult.
Yes, the pandemic made a topical thesis from that of my article: "Total identification of the person as good and salvation." But this market is so not monopolized, and the geopolitics are so nonlinear that, perhaps, will create a whole new layer of technological anticoid nouveauis - in different countries of the world of different, but will not enrich anyone one. Kazakhstan has its own vaccine. More than 30 countries of the world registered the Russian vaccine. COVID-Passport solutions from IBM and from the company supported by the World Economic Forum are fighting for markets among themselves and with dozens of other IT suppliers, from giants to startups and nounemyes. In motivation to super-profit, I am, sorry, forced to refuse (for the obvious competitiveness of the Pandemic of the new service of the Sovid Compliance service) and I justify it virtually.
And why is my forecast then conspiracy, albeit "quasi"? Yes, because I see the market to which the new post-person reality is promulit, under certain circumstances, and monopolization, and the superfrost to the winner. Only for this should have something scary and global.
No, not an epidemic. Epizooty.
We just changed the focus of vision. And immediately saw how the newly emerged nonequilibrium can divide the world on the losers (and there will be most of them), completely destroyed (and these are separate business entities, as well as industry and countries), and few winners.
Mechanisms of the struggle of the state with episodes are generally similar to anti-epidemic, with one important exception: a massive collection of not only painful individuals, but also the entire population of animals in a place or even the detection region of the infection is used as a prevention tool.
During the Kovid epidemic, mink was the victims. During Epizootia, humanity can stay in a few months without a large part of the population of meat and dairy cattle.
Just think about.
Sharply down - quotes of sovereign debt debts - meat suppliers.
In decline - the cost of land land under the farm.
Under the ruin - farming, under bankruptcy - financing their banks.
The structural assistance of states of farmers, as always belated and not always skillful. Watch your cattle breeders - who?
To withdraw the species-resistant breed, such as cattle, are needed years.
Who is in the local winnings? Fish manufacturers, meat suppliers of those types of livestock, which epizooty will spare. Chipizers. Vaccinators. ZoomedPreparatic suppliers.
Who is in the wild win? Suppliers of alternative meat and milk from vegetable and other protein raw materials. Patent holders will prescribe any "reasonable" price with a sharp, in the moment, the shortage of the most important food. The market for agricultural products in the world, as far as I know, oligopolized for a long time and for a long time.
Since the introduction of the first Western sanctions, Russia has achieved certain success in the field of import substitution, putting the goal of providing its own food security. However, new calculations are needed: in the new reality, the "assortment range" itself of available resources may be different. It is as if we predicted the volume of national fuel reserves, based on the wilderness, which, for example, the entire volume of fuel oil in the country or, say, coal overnight will cease to be available. In the scenario described by me, such a "wild" premium becomes the likely forecast of tomorrow.
Having ears yes hear. Or am I wrong?