Despite the vague prospects for the restoration of the global economy, the stock markets entered 2021 on a positive. Exchange products are traded, as if there is no crisis. However, investment attractive assets and market segments with growth potential are units.
2020th was the year of pumping of the global economy liquidity: the rates decreased around the world, the flow of cheap money was hung to the markets, spurred prices and quotes. In addition, the ongoing economy stimulation programs increase the risk of inflation and impairment of money. That is why in 2021 the priority for the investor will be the search for not yet revalued stock exchanges and real assets capable of protecting the risk of inflation growth.
Shares
All basic traded assets classes are at sufficiently high levels from the point of view of fundamental indicators. Therefore, by buying any stock index, whether it is S & P 500 or the Mosbier index, as well as separate shares, you need to be very neat - the economy develops at all the pace, to justify even current quotes, not to mention significant growth prospects for the stock market.A forwarded P / E multiplier (price / profit) for shares included in S & P 500 varies on the level of 23-25x and comparable to a record fixed on the eve of the crisis of the Dotcomms in 2000. The forecast for the global economy is disappointing - in key countries, and in Russia in particular, we are waiting for a regeneration growth to the level of 2019. So, after decreasing the GDP of Russia in 2020 by 3.1%, on the first assessment of Rosstat, this year we are waiting for growth only within 2.6-2.8%. Very few countries in the example of China will be able to exceed the levels of the previous year. Most will continue to be in stagnation.
What to buy?With the prospect of the year you can buy stocks:
- individual sectors or individual companies that remain even attractive from the point of view of multipliers;
- IT companies that are very expensive, but, in any case, in the long run for them the future;
- Companies from sectors with inflation protection (utility service providers, retail).
It is necessary to take into account that the investment potential of the stock market in 2021 is very limited, and "Music will play" not forever. It is very important not to succumb to the general euphoria and not to buy the overvalued assets to the skies in the hope of continuing their unreasonable growth.
Debt tools
The situation with debt tools around the world is pretty monotype - against the background of low rates, their yield is very low. Conservative investors can arrange this, but many makes it look for more revenue tools or buy paper with capital protection against inflation against the background of massive programs to support the economy around the world.
What to buy?In general, the potential of debt paper should be linked to the medium-term prospect of increasing key rates by leading regulators and, accordingly, reducing debt quotes. Taking this into account, the most interesting tools for the investor we see bonds with reference to inflation index or money market rates.
Stock company
During the year, analysts are waiting for the positive attachment in the oil market - the transport industry is gradually coming to life, people start flying around the world and ride a job on the car. Globally, the demand for fuel is growing, so, despite the impressive return of Brent to $ 60 per barrel, it is not worth waiting for the fall of oil quotes. Rates, inflation slightly affect oil quotes, the key factor here is the level of demand, which depends on the state of the economy and supply. And once the economy returns to some normalness, naturally wait and moderate restoration of oil demand.But in general, the price conjuncture of the stock goods is difficult to predict because there is no such understandable evaluation criteria from a fundamental point of view, as in promotions (revenues, profits, financial multipliers): Everything determines the demand and supply.
What to buy?Gold with a high probability will save its protective function. Give forecast for the year at the prices of gold is meaningless, this is an asset with an investment prospect of 30 years: in this sense he is unlikely to lose his appeal. If you have a goal on the horizon per year, this is not your asset. If you think of decades' categories, investment in gold is a good strategy for conservation of capital in any current price situation. But if you see the perspective in gold, instead of buying an ingot or gold futures, it is better to pay attention to the shares of gold mining companies, the cost of which directly depends on gold prices, while they still pay dividends, unlike the gold chop or ETF.
The property
Asset capable of protecting from high inflation in 2021, real estate, both commercial and residential, is a tool that is best cope with this feature. But cheap money was already reached by some segments of the market, including housing.
What to buy?If you evaluate the real estate as an investment, it is worth paying attention to commercial segments (trading facilities, offices, warehouses), where, unlike housing, there are clear multipliers and a specific yield at the level of 9-14% per annum. The fundamental indicators of this segment look extremely attractive. Unlike debt markets, where the yield sharply decreased, and equity assets with obscure growth prospects against the background of the existing exchange boom, the yield of commercial objects in 2021 remains at a good level compared with any available alternatives.
Cryptocurrencies
I do not advise you to invest in cryptoaculation, despite the fact that someone has this market and dynamic campaigns of quotes down and up will seem interesting. The fundamental value of cryptocurrency and tokens, unlike other assets, is almost impossible to evaluate; In conditions of cheap money and the rapid growth of quotes, the greatest risks arise in the assets with the near-oil internal value. Nobody will tell you, current $ 45 thousand for Bitcoin - expensive or cheap? This can be both an extremely attractive price for purchase and evidence of an inflated bubble. If you still want to play with a "digital casino", I would recommend to restrict ourselves to the investment in such assets no more than 2% of your portfolio.