On January 14, the development strategy was published a strategy for the development of Eurasian integration until 2025, approved by the heads of the EAEEC countries in December 2020, the document has a conceptual character and does not yet include the roadmap and KPI. However, a number of paragraphs contain a revolutionary potential. If the strategy is implemented, after 5 years, the EAEU will be found beyond the scope of the Economic Union.
Strictly speaking, it's not about the strategy, but about the "five-year plan" that is battered yet conceptually. Freaks on the ruble - it remains to find out what will be the blow. The plan of events of the strategy will be taken in the first quarter of 2021, and then the case is for the implementation.
The strategy is a 60-page document in which all "traditional" integration tracks are disassembled. What's new:
1. "Human factor." In the strategy for the first time, the Black Eurasian Humanitarian Integration Track is recorded in black. The creation of a unified information system and the portal in education is planned. Joint scientific research, advanced training programs and mutual internships (claim 8.2).
The development of the program of events and the creation of "mechanisms for supporting cooperation projects in the field of health" (10.3.7) is envisaged. It is planned to attract funding from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Eurasian Fund of Stabilization and Development (EFSR). EAEP also intends to develop the concept of tourism development in the Union and "Eurasian Tourist Routes" (clause 10.6).
The strategy declares "widespread involvement of citizens, public associations and business communities of Member States to the functioning of the Union and their participation in determining the further directions of the development of Eurasian integration" (P.9.5). This de facto implies the issuance of an ECE mandate to work in the public sector.
2. Geopolitical rate to China. The EAEP is called to become "one of the centers of a large Eurasian partnership" by interfacing with the initiative "one belt-one way" (OPOP), SCO, ASEAN (paragraph 11.8.1.). The EU is mentioned after ASEAN, a target for 5 years - "Establishing a dialogue". At the same time, a road map of interaction will be developed in the Chinese direction and a "permanent coordination mechanism" of the EAEU states in relations with the OPOP has been created. Hint of union to strengthen the negotiation positions.
3. Involvement of the CIS and the Southern Corridor. The participation of representatives of the executive bodies of the CIS in the work of the EAEU (paragraph 11.5.1) is in fact, it is a step towards the merger of two structures ("dead" members of the CIS remain behind the brackets). It is planned to create a SST with Egypt and Israel and complete negotiations with India.
4. Judicial power. Where the "quiet revolution" is designed, so it is in the Court of EAES. The strategy provides for the creation of a "mechanism to ensure the mandatory execution of decisions of the Union Court" (paragraph 9.2.2.). In theory, this means the first mechanism of "coercion to the execution" of solutions for which there is no consensus of the countries participating in the Union.
The question is complex, given the history of the court of EurAsEC. Caution will be the attitude of Kazakhstan, much will depend on the position of Russia. This step is publicly lobbyed by the Belarusian authorities in the calculation of getting a lever to promote its interests in oil and gas and trade. However, earlier in the court EAEEC Minsk did not appeal.
5. Economic accents. The "ensuring the traceability of goods imported into the customs territory of the Union and moved among Member States" (clause 5.1.1) is focused. These are problems with re-export and smuggling in the Western and Southern Borders of the EAEU.
The implementation of "joint programs and high-tech projects" with the involvement of EDB and EFSR (P.8.1.2) is planned. Stimulating the manufacturers creating regional value chains (P.7.7). Projects with a real "integration effect" in the EAEU are not yet enough. Integration motor in the next few years they will not be - the scale is not yet. Realistively moving forward on the "joint development and use of foreign export infrastructure", joint promotion of member states for foreign markets.
What's next
There is no reason to expect that 2021 will be easier than 2020 - sharper will appear "deferred" pain from the economic consequences of Lokdaunov. The transition of the presidential chair in the United States to Democrats intensifies the clients of the clients of the democracy in the post-Soviet space. Returning to the old-good policy Regime Change, but with double zeal after the "hungry" Trumps of trimmed budgets will strengthen the pressure on the countries of the post-Soviet Eurasia.
As for the internal engine integration into the EAEU, the role of "heavy horse" business megaprojects and cooperative chains in the next 5 years will not fit.
The "stitching" of the region will rather go along the path of energy infrastructure (NPP network), logistics (North-South corridors and the West-East), educational and border ties. Many of the projects will be bilateral.
Perspective track of interaction - health care. Russia was first in the world developed a vaccine and proceeds to mass vaccination. The first abroad Satellite V vaccine was registered in Belarus, vaccination began. In Kazakhstan, the production of Russian vaccine is already unfolding. By the end of February, it is planned to go on an industrial scale and launch a mass vaccination.
As for the energy infrastructure, on January 14, 2021, the power of the NPP in the islet, built by Rosatom, was removed on January 14, 2021. The preparation of a contract for the construction of the Russian NPP in Uzbekistan is being completed. Start is scheduled for 2022 on the Russian loan.
Uzbekistan, who received 11 December 2020, the status of an observer in the EAEU becomes the main factor in the economic acceleration of Central Asia. The accession of a 33 millionth state to the EAEU, the economy is more dynamic and demographically powerful than Ukraine, qualitatively will change the Union.
In today's realities, you can say in advance that any strategy (EAEU is no exception) will go "not quite according to plan" since 2021, but the plan should be. The EAEU is unlikely to go to the global trend to braking the construction of supranational structures. In the coming years, it will rather be used to solve specific tasks, where the interests of the participants coincide.
General philosophy may be like this: hold the achieved, have several priorities and move between them, depending on where the place is released for step forward.
Vyacheslav Sutyrin