The coronavirus pandemic, which unfolded at the very beginning of 2020, confused all the budget plans of the Ministry of Finance, which was paying for a budget surplus in 0.8% of GDP. But it was easier to survive the crisis than the Ministry was originally waiting: for 2020, the federal budget was executed with a deficit of 3.8% of GDP, or 4.1 trillion rubles. This is significantly lower than the forecasts of the Ministry itself, which in the summer waited for a deficit of 5% of GDP. It helped a faster recovery of consumption after removing anti-virus restrictions, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov explained.
For the crisis 2020, the government has been seriously spent. The costs of the federal budget exceeded the initial plans by 16.1%, and compared to 2019 grew by 25% at once. Although officials even in the crisis year did not have time to spend all the money, 1 trillion rubles remained again not spent spent spent spent. Siluans at the end of 2020 explained that 300 billion rubles. From this amount comes to prisoners, but not yet fulfilled state contracts, and 140 billion rubles. did not have time to spend power agencies. Money will be transferred to 2021, he promised.
In just 2020, the Ministry of Finance spent 22.8 trillion rubles. - So many ministry did not spend the share of health expenditures, social policies and transfers to the regions. Nevertheless, expenses for the support of the economy were significantly lower than in developed countries, and somewhat less than in developing (4.5% of GDP, President Vladimir Putin said). They were lower than and in the Crisis of 2009, the head of the Evsey Gurwich Economic Expert Group was noted. Although the program of anti-crisis support itself turned out to be effective, he recognized.
Now the key risk is that measures to reduce the budget deficit will slow down the growth of the economy, warned by the World Bank. Russia plans to make more than other developing countries. By law on the budget for 2021-2023. The deficit will gradually shrink to 2.4% of GDP in 2021 and about 1% in 2022 and 2023. The anti-crisis incentives will be maintained only in 2021, a temporary weakening of the budget rule in 2021 will increase by 870 billion rubles. Limit costs. The budget consolidation was fully justified, noted the rector of Ranjigs Vladimir Mau, and the reduction in the cost of up to 1 trillion rubles. Every year it should not have a negative impact on the economy. But the danger lies in the distribution of expenses, wrote auditors of the Accounts Chamber: productive expenses increasing human capital not only do not grow, but even decrease. For example, social expenses will decrease with 12.8% of GDP in 2021 to 11.9% in 2023
Revenues in 2020 expected declined, follows from the data of the Ministry of Finance. In 2020, they exceeded 18.7 trillion rubles, but it is only 90.9% of the scheduled amount. Revenues were restored following the improvement of the situation in the economy - so, after decreasing in the II-III, quarters with the restoration of consumer demand began to grow adventures from VAT. For the IV quarter of 2020, they increased by more than 15%. Income from NDFL and insurance premiums began to grow already from the third quarter of 2020. For the entire 2020, income from NDFL increased in real terms by 3%. But the income tax never began to grow - in 2020, the federal budget revenues decreased by 11.6%. In January - October 2020 (no more than fresh data is not) Profit minus losses (excluding small business) companies fell by 38.2% or 1.6 times in annual terms, Rosstat reported. The decline is associated both with a decrease in sales profits and with a decline of non-delaimal costs due to the weakening of the ruble, experts of the Center for the Development of the Higher School of Economics were explained.