New accommodation in St. Petersburg and suburban areas is maintained; Developers regularly bring new projects to the market. The balance of demand and suggestions has not yet cause serious concerns.
The main risks for the primary market lies in mortgage rates (they will grow) and the level of income level (it will decrease). In addition, since January ceases to act a ban on bankruptcy and fines and penalties and sanctions for the delay in the entry of objects - these measures were canceled with the beginning of the first "quarantine"
For surrender
December - traditionally the most busy month for builders. In St. Petersburg - it happened so - it was in December that he was introduced from a third to half the annual volume of housing.
Below is a brief chronicle of the New Year's delivery.
In the second half of the month, the regional Gosstroynadzor issued permission to enter the four eight-storey buildings in the LCD "Clear. Yanino" from the GC "KVS". This is the first stage of the third stage of the project; In the aggregate - at 860 apartments. (In total, there will be 41 residential buildings in the complex, about 8,100 apartments).
In Fisherman, the company "M2" (the structure of the Technopolis Group of Companies) was commissioned a small LCD "Rybatskaya Harbor" - a 12-storey house for 275 apartments. Residents protested against sealing development, but in vain; The house was commissioned even earlier.
In Kamenka, the holding of the SETL GROUP commissioned the eighth of the complex "Clean Sky" complex: five buildings, 1655 apartments, also with a lead of the schedule. In total, there are about 1.3 million square meters in this project. M housing, plus commerce and sociable. On Vasileostrovsky Namav, Seven Suns Development has passed the LCD "Light World" Quiet Harbor ... ": nine sections with a height of 3 to 23 floors, only 996 apartments. (The conclusion of the compliance was obtained in May, he went to eliminate the lowest).
The CDA Group put into operation the seventh case in the residential complex "Prienevsky": 23 floors, 792 apartments. LCD in Rusanovskaya Street will consist of
eight buildings with a total area of about 300,000 square meters. m. The same developer passed the first stage (931 apartments) in the LCD "Elizarovsky" (this is also Nevsky District).
The LSR Group has completed the construction of a large LCD "Shuvalovsky" in the famine microdistrict developers from developers: in the last two buildings - 1075 apartments. And in total in the complex 24 residential buildings.
SETL GROUP finished the first place of the Pulse complex on the embankment on the territory of the former Pigment plant (Nevsky district, between the October Embankment and Far Eastern Avenue): three corps height from 14 to 15 floors, a total of 1484 apartments. The project is divided into five stages, the total area of housing will be about 350,000 square meters. m.
The Swedish company Bonava ahead of schedule - seven months earlier - reported on the delivery of three houses in the third stage of LCD Magnifika Lifestyle on the embankment of the river Ohta. In the housings height from 12 to 15 floors - 233 apartments.
The Arkhangelsk Group "Akvilon" in December ended the LCD "4You" in the Moscow district, on the Messenochkaya street: the last two 18-storey houses were passed - 1020 and 595 apartments, this is the third and fourth line of the project. Total in LCD 3179 apartments.
The company "L1" received permission to enter two houses in the third stage of the LCD "Count Orlov" next to the Moscow metro station: 250 and 47 apartments.
House in Gatchina on Chekhov Street for 303 apartments passed to the operation of Lenstroytrest GC. These are four bottled sections in the third stage of the LCD "IQ Gatchchina".
The Moscow firm GLORAX DEVELOPMENT introduced the LCD of the Business Class "Second Quarter" as part of the project Ligovsky City: In the midst (9-11 floors), the hull is 830 apartments. The holding has completed the construction of the last, the third stage of the LCD Renaissance in Nevsky district, on the street at Dybenko - six sections, 514 apartments. Total in the LCD nine residential buildings on a single stylobate, 1346 apartments. The "Stalon" group introduced the LCD "Okhta House" (Krasnogvardeysky district, Lagoda street): 1680 apartments. Holding the SETL Group for three months ahead of time passed three houses (ninth quarter) in the LCD "Sunny City" in Krasnoselsky district: Plus another 1768 apartments.
In total, the developers surrendered above the projects have passed almost 14,400 apartments. In almost all LCD, several options remained at the time of delivery. (In business class complexes - more). This suggests that the pricing policy is balanced, and the cost of the square, although it has grown by 18-20% over the year, still suits buyers. Recall: this long list of objects is a report for only two weeks of December. And he is probably not full: most likely, we missed several objects. At the end of the year, the total input amount will be 3.2-3.3 million square meters. m.
For comparison: in December 2019, in St. Petersburg and the region, citizens concluded 11,522 DDU.
Debuts
Now let's look at the offer - new items for the second half of December. New projects are a bit, but they are, and in different price categories. And most importantly - they are easily scaling: if demand is higher than expected, the developer can easily increase the supply volume.
Sales opened in the 16th stage of the LCD "Sunny City" from the SETL Group: two 8-storey buildings, 1164 apartments.
The CDS group brought to the sale of the first two buildings of a large-scale residential project in Novosaratovka: 803 apartments. The same developer began the realization of housing in the second stage of the LCD "New Horizons" (between the strums and Murino): in the 15-storey building - 296 apartments.
The GC "KVC" opened the implementation of housing in the range "Evidence" (as part of the LCD "New Serrtolovo". The quarter consists of three 4-5-storey buildings, a total of 680 apartments. In Yanino, 222 apartments were received in two buildings in The "Dutch" quarter "Janila" (developer - Lenstroytrest GC).
Krasnaya Strevel began booking apartments in the LCD business class "Mendeleev" at the Moscow Gate. The smallest "unit" can be reserved for 9.97 million rubles. In three bottled (5-10 and 11 floors), 538 apartments are provided for the buildings.
A few more large projects on the approach. GK "KVS" in December received permission to build the first stage of a large-scale project "Lyubograd" in Strelna; First of all, there are three four-storey buildings at 724 apartments. Sales will open in January.
In early January, the CDS Group discovered sales in Parkolovo LCD; In the first building - 475 apartments.
Factors of demand
According to preliminary forecasts, for 2020, developers will report on 100-110,000 shares agreements. (This is with apartments and machinery). In 2019, sales amounted to 127,200 DDU. Demand was fueled by a preferential mortgage and the need to attach ruble savings somewhere.
With a preferential mortgage, more or less understandable: the program will be completed on July 1, 2021; It can be extended for individual depressive regions, but is unlikely to enter Petersburg and Leningrad region in their list. Increased areas of sites and the projects prepared for the project will be enough to prevent the deficit. (Local failures in certain periods are quite possible).
The demand will depend on the pressure of "free" money derived from deposits: according to analysts forecasts, in the next three years their volume can be more than 3 trillion rubles. And from the activity of internal migration: on how bad everything is bad with work and earnings will be in other regions.
Investment motifs are reduced to zero: residential lease rates in St. Petersburg decreased by 6-7%, taking into account inflation - by 10-12% minimum. Payback period rose to 20-25 years. It's not about to earn - just not to lose. And the growth of income citizens does not promise even the Ministry of Economic Development ...
It seems that in 2021, those developers who work in the elite segment can calmly feel quietly (closed borders contribute to this). And companies focused on a hard economy class. Provided that their projects will be relatively decent.
