Kuqedwe ngo-2020 kwaletha ukuthambekela okusha emnothweni womhlaba wonke, okukodwa kwawo kwakunamanani aqoshiwe wesabelomali sokushoda kwesabelomali kanye nezinkomba zezikweletu zomphakathi emazweni athuthukile. Yize imiphumela yokugcina ingakafingqiwe, kungashiwo ukuthi okufihliwe kwesabelomali se-US kudlule (kunikezwe umthetho we-anti-billion owenziwe ngoDisemba, ama-20.4% we-GDP, i-UK - 20.2% ye-GDP, UK - I-16.6% ye-GDP futhi yiJalimane kuphela ngonyaka owedlule wakwazi ukuwugcina ngo-4,8% we-GDP. Lawa magugu aba ophakeme kunawo wonke emlandweni wonke wezempi futhi adlulela ngaphezu kwesilinganiso sawomkhawulo walemikhawulo kwamuva kwasungulwa iziphathimandla zamazwe aqondene (e-EuroZone lapho zihlolwe i-GDP, ku- I-United States yango-2019-2020 igxile ngo-4.9% we-GDP, eJapan, u-5.8% we-GDP).
Ngasikhathi sinye, akukho lutho oluyinhlekelele kuwo wonke amazwe ashiwo. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala kulawulwa, futhi, naphezu kokuwohloka komnotho (ngokuya ngemininingwane yokuqala, i-US GDP yehle ngo-3.5%, iJalimane - ngo-5.5%, i-10.5%), ukunqwabelana kwe Inani labantu likhule, futhi izakhamizi ziguqulwe ukuze "nokusinda" kubhubhane. Isiphakamiso esikhulu sezimali sabangela ukwehla okubukhali ngamanani wenzalo, okuvuselela ukutshalwa kwezimali nokusetshenziswa kwezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside, ukuthenga izindlu nezimoto. Cishe konke ukubikezela kwenkulumo engama-2021 mayelana nokubuyiselwa komnotho nokuvuselela ngo-2022. Amazinga ka-2019. Ngamanye amagama, umkhakha wangempela, njengoba bekulindelwe ukubuyisa isikhundla sayo, naphezu kwezinkomba ezesabekayo zesikweletu esishonile.
Izehlakalo zonyaka owedlule zazihlukile kwesinye isici. Naphezu kokweqa okungaphambili komnotho, ukukhula kwemisebenzi kanye nezindawo eziyinhlekelele zezimboni eziningi, izimakethe zesitoko zikhombise ukululama okusheshayo: i-S & P500 kuvaliwe ngonyaka ngo-16.3% ephakeme kunesiphelo sika-2019 no-70.5% ngaphezulu kwephuzu eliphansi lokuwa ngoMashi; I-DAX - ngo-3.7%, ngokulandelana, kanye nama-62.5% aphezulu, uNikkei ngu-15.2% no-82.3%. Ngasikhathi sinye, amafa amaningi ayebuswa - ngakho-ke, i-2020 ibiwukuphela konyaka, ngokwemiphumela yayo, enokwehliswa kwe-GDP, i-Real Estate yawela kunoma imaphi amazwe athuthukile. Iningi lezinto ezinkulu zezimali nazo alizange liwele ngentengo.
Ingcebo nesikweletuUmphumela waba yisimo esithile sokukhula okufanayo kwesikweletu somphakathi kanye nengcebo yomphakathi. Uma uhlola isibonelo se-United States, kuvela ukuthi isikweletu somphakathi sikhuphuke ngo- $ 4,6 trillion ngonyaka owedlule, ngenkathi imali ephelele yemakethe yesitoko ingama- $ 6.55 trillion, kanti izimpahla zasendlini zingaphezu kwama- $ 7.8 trillion. Isikweletu esidumile sombuso sibonisa ukukhula komthwalo wesikweletu e-Middle America - kepha isimo sesikweletu sezindlu ku-GDP sehle ngokwengeziwe eminyakeni engaphezu kwe-12 edlule. Yize imalimboleko njengamanje iqoshwa nanamuhla, isabelo sababolekisi ngesilinganiso esiphakeme kakhulu ngesikweletu kwikota yesithathu yango-2020 baba phezulu kakhulu eminyakeni engama-20 - kanye nesabelo semali elahlekile, yehle ngokukhokha kabili futhi Itholakala ekuqaleni kwesiqalo ngo-1970.), kanye nezikweletu kumakhadi wesikweletu kwehle ukwehla ngaphezulu konyaka ngaphezulu kwe-14%. Uma usabheka ukwehla kwezindleko zikahulumeni eziboleke, kuvela ukuthi isabelomali sichitha ama-7.8% wezindleko ngokuphelele ukuze silondoloze izibopho zalo, kwathi ngo-1999-2000, lapho isabelomali se-US Federal sehla ngensalela, kwakungu-11.2-11.0%.
Bonke basho ukuthi babeke ukuthi babeke umbuzo owodwa osobala: Ngabe izindlela zangaphambili zokuhlola ubungozi bokushoda nezikweletu zingabhekwa njengezanele namuhla? Noma yiliphi ibhange, elenza isinqumo ngokukhishwa kwemalimboleko esiya embondweni yangasese ngokungangabazeki kucatshangelwa imali yayo yamanje (uhlobo lwe-analogue lwe-GDP, uma lukhuluma ngenani lentengo), kodwa futhi ligxile enanini lezemakethe lokho kungadluliselwa ekuhlinzekweni (ngandlela thile kufana nengcebo kazwelonke). Akusasebenzi ukuqhathanisa isikweletu nokusilela nge-GDP? Ngabe kukhombisa namuhla ukulingana kwezomnotho okubalulekile noma kuyinkokhiso ekukholiseni kokukhanyisa kwenkonzo yethu?
Hhayi kubi kangakoImicimbi yale minyaka eyi-10 edlule iyaphoqeleka ukuthi icabange kakhulu ngokubaluleka kwezinkomba zendabuko zempumelelo yezomnotho yamazwe ngamanye. Ngakho-ke, ngokwesibonelo, e-GDP, eChina, izwe lakhula kakhulu eminyakeni engama-20 edlule, selinciphise igebe nge-United States - Uma ubheka ku-GDP ngamanani wamanje, kusukela ku- $ 9.1 Trillion kuya ku- $ 5.9 Trillion, futhi uma Kuthathwe ikhono lokuthenga imali, iChina yaze yafika yafika phambili, idlula eMelika ngama- $ 3.5 trillion. Kepha igebe eliseNational Wealth (National Net Scery) laze lakhula - $ 42.8 trillion ngo-2020 ama-trillion ngo- $ 39,5 trillion ngonyaka ka-29.5 ngaphezulu, naphezu kwazo zonke izingxabano mayelana ne- "Chinese Era", kusukela ngo-2015, igebe phakathi I-United States neChina kule nkomba ekhula ngokushesha okukhulu.
Uma ubuyela esihlokweni sethu esiqondile - ikakhulukazi, ezikweletini zomphakathi, kuvela ukuthi kule minyaka eyi-10 eyedlule (futhi kule minyaka kukhona ukubolekwa okukhulu maqondana nobunzima obude, namagagasi ambalwa "wokunciphisa umthamo") we Usayizi wayo maqondana nengcebo kazwelonke ye-United States cishe ayikhule (25.4% ngo-2020 ngokumelene no-22.7% ngonyaka we-2010). Kungenzeka ukuthi kusenesikhathi kakhulu ukwenza iziphetho ezifinyelela kude kulokhu, kepha umkhuba ukhombisa ngokusobala ukuthi isimo sezomnotho esithuthukile, noma singanaka kalula imali, lapho zingaqhakambisa khona imali edingekayo ukunqoba le nhlekelele, Eminyakeni yamuva akuyona into embi kangako ukuthi lokhu kwesinye isikhathi kubonakala kanjani.
Ungaqhathanisa kanjani manjeIngcebo Kazwelonke (nangaphansi kwayo iyaqondakala njengenani eliphelele lezimpahla ezingokwezakhamizi zamazwe afanelekile ukuthola izibopho zawo) - inkomba yokuthuthuka komnotho ihlelwe ngokucacile namhlanje. Kubhekwa ku-Dynamics, kukhombisa ukuthambekela okuningana okubaluleke kakhulu, ngaphandle kokucabanga ngesithombe sezomnotho sezwe sanamuhla kubukeka kungaphelele.
- Okokuqala, futhi saqala, le nkomba yangabaza ukuthi amanani aphezulu okushoda kwesabelomali kanye namazinga ezikweletu zomphakathi emazweni athuthukile angumthombo wengozi ekhulayo: ahlala ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu futhi maqondana nevolumu yengcebo kazwelonke ayinazo izindlela zokukhula .
- Okwesibili, usho okuningi ngekhwalithi yokubanjwa kwentuthuko: Kusukela ngo-2000, izikhundla zeChina (+6 kuphela) ne-India (+7), ngenkathi "amahlosi" ase-Asia aboniswa ekulinganisweni kwezwe lamazwe: ENingizimu Korea, eHong Kong, eHong Kong, e-Hong Kong, e-Hong Kong, e-Hong Kong, , Singapore - noma ugcinwe isikhundla sabo, noma wehla uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe (neJalimane, iFrance, e-Italy neSpain bagcina izikhundla zabo ngemiphumela yale miphumela engama-20).
- Okwesithathu, iRussia ihlolwe kusukela kuleli phuzu lokubukwa, kuvela ukuthi kubi kakhulu kunasekuqaleni kokufakwa kwesicelo se-GDP se-PPS noma ngesilinganiso samanje: Kubalwa yi-0.8% ngcebo yomhlaba wonke ngokumelene ne-3.08% ye-GDP yomhlaba wonke ku-PPP kanye ne-1.74% yezifundo zamanje zemali; Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokusho kwaleli kholisi, iRussia iwela eqenjini lezomnotho elikhudlwana lohlobo lwe-Italy neJapan, opende wayo ozuzile kahle akafikanga ku-2020 edlule, futhi kulindeleke khona) , - impela naye, njengami kudala, kuzofanela siqhathanise izimpumelelo zethu kwezomnotho inqobo nje uma njengama-bolsheviks kusukela ngo-1913
Le nkinga, esevale manje emnothweni womhlaba, yize icasulwe ngokuqondile yi-rus virus, ngasikhathi sinye ibonakalisa zombili lezo zinkinga futhi hhayi izitayela ezintsha ezakhiwa kuyo yonke iminyaka eyi-10-16 (futhi zivulwe kakhulu Okokugcina, bheka i-Inomertsev, Vladislav. Umnotho ngaphandle kwemfundiso: Njengoba i-United States idale i-oda elisha lezomnotho, iMoscow: Indlu yokushicilela "Alpina", 2021). Futhi sizokwenza iphutha elingathetheleli uma siqhubeka ezimeni ezintsha ukuhlola izinkinga zezomnotho futhi sifinyelele idatha ngesisekelo sedatha nokulingana okusetshenziswe isikhathi eside kwezomnotho, ngezinga lobunzima babo nezindlela zabo Umthethonqubo wabo awufani ngokuphelele neyamanje.
Umbono womlobi kungenzeka angahambisani nesikhundla se-vetimes Edition.