NgoFebhuwari 11-12, kwenzeke umhlangano wabantu abanamahloni. Isithangami kwakuwukuhlinzeka inkhulumomphendvulwano nabantu ngokumelene nesizinda sezinkinga zezepolitiki futhi zichaze izinkomba zokuguqulwa okudingekayo ukuze zinqotshwe. Ikakhulu, iMoscow yamthatha njengengxenye yalokhu eyasungulwa inqubo yeMinsk lapho kushintshwa kuMthethosisekelo. Ekugcineni, ababambiqhaza bama-vns nokuthi imizamo iveze kanjani enkambweni yakhe iBelarus, umqondisi wesikhungo senhlangano yomphakathi yokufunda kwenqubomgomo yangaphandle , UDenis Bukonkin.
Okwakushiwo kuma-vns
NgoFebhuwari 12, umhlangano wabantu baseBelarusian (ama-vns) waqedwa, okwamenyezelwa yiziphathimandla zaseBelarus njengesithangami esikhulu kunazo zonke sezimangaliso zabantu eminyakeni emihlanu edlule. Lesi sithangami siqoqe inani elikhulu kakhulu lezihambeli ezivela ezingxenyeni ezihlukene zezwe. Kepha inqubo yokukhetha ngokwayo isikisela ukuthi lo mcimbi ukhethelwe iningi lamandla athembekile abantu.Isithangami uqobo sasihlose ukuxoxa ngezinhlelo neziphakamiso zeMinsk esemthethweni, ekuqaleni komcimbi azehluleka ukusho uMongameli weRiphabhulikhi yaseBelarus Alexashenko uLukashenko. Kulokhu, okuthakazelisa kakhulu futhi okufundisayo kwakuyizinkulumo zabamele uhulumeni wamanje.
Ngeshwa, ngesikhathi se-VNS, ukuguqulwa koMthethosisekelo okuhlongozwe yiziphathimandla akuzange kuthunyelwe kwiziphathimandla, okufanele kube yindlela eyisisekelo yokuvota. ULukashenko ukhawulelwe ngesikhathi sesethembiso sokusabalalisa kabusha amandla futhi alungiselele inguqulo entsha yoMthethosisekelo kuze kube kuphela u-2021 Ekuqaleni kuka-2022, futhi-ke, uma ihambisana nokhetho lwasekhaya ngoJanuwari. Ngasikhathi sinye, uMongameli watshelwa ukuthi iBelarus izohlala iRephabhulikhi kaMongameli. Ngasikhathi sinye, bekulindeleke ukuthi kube yisiphakamiso sokunamathisela isimo somthethosisekelo we-VNS njengendlela ephezulu kakhulu yokumelwa kuzwelonke. Kepha lesi sifiso salezi zihambeli zeCongress sizohlala siyisifiso kuze kube yilapho ukuhlelwa okufanele kungeniswe kuhlelo olusha lomthethosisekelo.
Ngakho-ke, okuthakazelisa kakhulu futhi okufundisayo kwakuwumsebenzi kaMongameli, uNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle uVladimir Makeya, amakhanda e-KGB Ivan Calcher. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kwakukhona indawo kanye nenkulumo engalindelekile eyenziwa nguMengameli u-Anna Kanopatskaya, engafakwanga ekusakazweni okusemthethweni.
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Ukusuka enkulumweni kaMongameli, kungenzeka ukwazi ukuthi ukuhamba kwamandla eBelarus kusenokwenzeka. Ngasikhathi sinye, enye yezimo zayo kuzoba yinzuzo yabasekeli bakaLukashenko uma kwenzeka amanye amabutho ezepolitiki aza emandleni. Ngokwehlukana, inhloko yombuso egxile ekugcinweni kwezinqubomgomo zaseBelarusian, nokho, eziye zabhekana nezinguquko ezinkulu.
Ngakho-ke, kwaphawulwa ukuthi abaseBelarus "bakulungele njalo ukwakha ubudlelwano nawo wonke amazwe nezinyunyana ngesisekelo semigomo yokulingana, inhlonipho, ukungaphazanyiswa ezindabeni zangaphakathi." Ngokusho kukaMongameli, futhi banesifiso sokuthi "banokulinganisela okuhlukahlukene okukhona emhlabeni wangaphandle, okokuqala kwako konke kwezomnotho." Ngasikhathi sinye, ubudlelwano ne-European Union bubalulekile, lapho iBelarus "umngcele omude kunabo bonke kanye nokuncika kwezinga eliphakeme lokuncika kwezomnotho, kwezenhlalo, amasiko nokugcina kwezombusazwe". Ayikho i-vector ebaluleke kangako yama-diplomacy aseBelarusian amazwe abizwa nge- "arc ende", lapho indawo ebalulekile "isongo, naphezu kwe-China yase-gena. Ngasikhathi sinye, umlingani ophambili wezomnotho kanye necebo le-ally "kwakungu" Russia.
Ukuhlanganiswa Kwemibuzo
Ubudlelwano neRussia ngokuvamile banikezelwa engxenyeni ehlukile yenkulumo kaLukashenko. Ikakhulu, ukubaluleka kwamasu okubalwa kweBelarus-Russia kuyo yonke indawo, ukongiwa kokuqina nokuthula kuyo. Kukhonjisiwe ukuthi iBelarus ikhuthaze futhi izokwenza ukuhlanganiswa komnotho esikhaleni sangemva kweSoviet zombili ngefomethi yezwe neyezizwe.Ngasikhathi sinye, kwaphawulwa ukuthi inyunyana yaseBelarus neRussia ekubambisaneni e-Eaeu kanti ama-CIS ahlukaniswa ngokuhlanganiswa okujulile nezinye izindawo, okubandakanya nezepolitiki nokuvikela. Futhi manje, ngokusho kocwaningo lwakamuva lwenhlalo yezenhlalo, angaphezu kwama-70% amaBelarus ahlanganise neRussia.
Ngasikhathi sinye, kugcizelelwa ukuthi izitho zabantu ezidalwe ngaphakathi kohlaka lwesimo sezinto ezihlangene azikakasebenzi imali yazo, futhi ngenxa yalokho zisekuseni kakhulu ukuba zikhulume ngezinguquko zazo.
Embikweni wakhe, inhloko yombuso ithinte isihloko sezinyunyana sezomnotho ngaphakathi kwe-Eauu, ibona ukubaluleka kokuthola umphumela we-synergistic kusuka ekwakhiweni kwemakethe evamile. Ngenhloso yeBelarus - Ukudalwa kwenhlangano yezomnotho egcwele ngaphakathi kohlaka lwe-Eaeu: "Kuyadingeka ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kokwakhiwa kwama-Eurasia, kubalulekile ngokuyisisekelo ukuze kufinyelelwe umthelela obalulekile, we-synereric ekwakhekeni kwe imakethe ejwayelekile futhi uhlobanise amandla ezomnotho amaqembu aseMelika. Ngemuva kwalokho i-seeu izokhanga ngokwengeziwe kwabanye abalingani, hhayi kuphela endaweni yangemva kweSoviet. " Kwakunomphumela wokuthi isihlalo saseBelarusian se-EAPRASHIAN sahlose ngo-2020, futhi lo mugqa uhloselwe ukuqhubeka ngokuzayo.
Ngakho-ke, njengoba i-Commonwealth of izimele ezizimele, ngokusho kweNhloko Yezwe, naphezu kobunzima benhloso, igcina ngokugcwele ukuhambisana kwayo njengenhlangano yesifunda. "Okubaluleke kakhulu kweBelarus eCommonwealth kuhlala kungashintshiwe - ukuthuthukisa ukuhlangana njengendlela yokuxhumana okunenzuzo kakhulu kwezomnotho," kusho uLukashenko. Usihlalo weBelarus e-CIS uthunyelwa ukufeza le nhloso ngo-2021
Ngokusho kukaMongameli, ukubambisana kwezempi kanye nezempi-ubuchwepheshe neRussia namanye amazwe ama-CSTO azoqhubeka futhi. Ngasikhathi sinye, iMinsk esemthethweni izoqinisa amandla okuvikela izwe aphoqa isimo sezepolitiki esifundeni sase-Eastern European.
ULukashenko ugcizelele ukuthi ePoland, amazwe aseBaltic ngokuhlala njalo yi-Nato Multinational Force, kunezinto eziningi zokuzivocavoca ezempi okuthuthukiswa kwezimpondo ezinkulu zezwekazi laseMelika eYurophu. Emasontweni ambalwa edlule ePoland kwaze kwenziwa izivivinyo zasebusika, lapho kwenzeka khona impi yesikhathi esizayo nge-Natual Nature of Troops yaseRussia neBelarus yalungiswa kumakhompyutha.
"Ukusebenzisa lezi zimfundiso nokuthi uHolt, okhuphuke ngokuyinhloko ePoland, ashukumisela ukwabiwa okwengeziwe ekuthuthukisweni kwamasosha abo ePoland nasePoops," kusho umholi waseBelarusian. Njengempendulo, izivivinyo ezihlanganisiwe "entshonalanga 2021" ziyabhekwa. Umemezele ushintsho emcabangweni wokuphepha kwezwe lonke.
Ukuthekelisa kanye nobuqili
Isitatimende seNhloko yoMnyango Wezangaphandle uMakeya, ophakamisa ukususa ilungiselelo lesifiso sokungathathi hlangothi emthethweni ngokomthetho, akuzange kuthakazeke. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukwenqatshwa kwezinhlelo eziningi okufanele ngabe ziphenduke i-Belarus zibe uhlobo lwe-Eastern European analogue yase-Austria, eSwitzerland noma iFinland. Ungqongqoshe futhi ukholelwa ukuthi ezimweni zanamuhla kungcono ukuthi ashintshe ifomula yokuthumela ngokuya ngomgomo wesithathu - okwesithathu, lapho izimakethe zesithathu ziwela eRussia nase-European Union, amazwe e-Farc. Ngokubona kwakhe, kuyadingeka ukugxila uhhafu wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ezimakethe ze-Eaeu, kanye nohhafu osele ngokulinganayo phakathi kwe-EU kanye namazwe we-arc akude. Ngasikhathi sinye, makay ugqugquzela ukulondolozwa kwezinga lemvelo ehlukahlukene njengesisekelo esiyisisekelo senqubomgomo yezwe lakwelinye izwe.
Ngokwehlukana, kuyadingeka ukuphendukela enkulumweni yoCouller, njengoba ikhanda lezinsizakalo ezikhethekile zezwe elimemezele ubukhona beqembu lamaphekula elihloselwe ukuqhuba amasheya amaningi eBelarus. Ngakho-ke, esikhathini esizayo esiseduze kungalindelwa ukuthi amacala amasha azosungulwa ngokumelene nababhikishi ngokumangalela okungathi sína. Kungenzeka ukuthi lo msebenzi uzopholisa uthuli lwabantu abazobuyela emyalwaneni wokubhikisha osentwasahlobo ka-2021 ngasikhathi sinye, kungenzeka ukuthi lolu hlelo lokusebenza luzosetshenziswa njenge Umkhakha wolwazi ukukhuthaza ulwazi mayelana "nokucindezelwa kwe-flywheel" kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwesidingo sokumelana okwengeziwe.
Ukusebenza kwezinye izihambeli neziphetho
Phakathi kwezinkulumo zezinye izihambeli, ukudluliswa kwesikhalo sikaYuri Voskresensky kwaheha ukunakwa okungekho emthethweni. Kwakulindeleke ukuthi anikeze ukuxolelwa kuzo zonke iziboshwa zezombusazwe eziphendukayo. Kodwa-ke, iqiniso lokuphenduka, ngokusobala, kusho ukunxusa uMongameli ngesicelo sokuxolelwa, kanye nokuvinjelwa okungokoqobo kunoma yimiphi imisebenzi yezepolitiki ezweni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuhlongozwa ukuthi kufonele esinye sezikwele ukuhlonipha iRussia, ngaleyo ndlela ukwazisa ukunikela kwalo ekugcinweni kwezwe kanye nokuzimela kweBelarus.
Kuzo zonke izihambeli, izihambeli zazingazinhlamvu, futhi kunalokho umlingiswa othembekile maqondana namandla akhona futhi agxile ezindabeni lapho isinqumo esasithathwe khona, noma umbono wesipika awukaze waxoshwa kakhulu ngesikhulu isikhundla.
Lokhu kungaba yingozi enkulu yeMinsk esemthethweni, ngoba lokhu kungahle kube nombono wokuntuleka kwezikhundla ezingezona ezingezona noma ezinye izingqinamba, noma ukungaqiniseki emphakathini mayelana nokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo yamanje. Okwamanje, amavoti amaningi, kunalokho, akhombisa ukuhlukaniswa komphakathi okubalulekile kanye nokukhala kwawo. Ubufakazi balokhu bungasebenza, kufaka phakathi iqiniso lokuthi, ngokusho kwenhlolokhono e-oda ku-VNS, ngaphansi kwengxenye yabantu kusekela isinyathelo kuqala sikaMongameli ukuze banikeze umhlangano wesimo somthethosisekelo.
Ukungabikho kwengxoxo ebucayi nengxabano kungathatha isinyathelo sokuphothula amandla, kepha kungabonisi isimo sangempela senkinga ethile yomphakathi waseBelarusian. Ngokuvamile, ama-vns afeze umsebenzi wawo futhi waba uhlobo lokuphendula ezenzweni eziphikisayo phesheya. Kungakho, ngokusobala, i-EU yakwazi ukuchaza ngokusemthethweni ukuthi ayibheki umhlangano njengomzimba osemthethweni nezixazululo zawo azinawo amandla asemthethweni kanye neqiniso.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuxazululwa kwe-Ans akuphoqelekile ukuthi kwenziwe, futhi umhlangano ngokwawo akanaso isimo somthethosisekelo okwamanje. Ngakho-ke, ukuze ulindele ukuthi izinguquko ezithile ezimangazayo zibe yimiphumela yazo kungenzeka zibe zincane kakhulu.
UDenis Bonkin, umcwaningi weSikhungo Somlando weNational Academy of Science of Belarus, isikhungo seNhlangano Yomphakathi Yomphakathi "ngenqubomgomo yangaphandle nokuvikeleka"