Abatshalizimali nabahlaziyi banethemba ngamathemba ezimakethe ngonyaka we-2021. Silindele ukubuyiselwa kwemisebenzi yezomnotho, okuzokweseka amafa asekhuphuke kakhulu kusuka engcupheni yangomamashi, kodwa futhi kuzokwenza Nikeza ukukhula emikhakheni esele ngasohlangothini lomhlangano womgwaqo. Inzuzo yamabhondi kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale iphansi, ngaleyo ndlela inikeze ukusekelwa okwengeziwe kwezingcaphuno zamasheya.
Izikhathi zezezimali zibuze abatshalizimali ezingahambi kahle.
Ukuphathwa kwe-Howard Marx, ukuphathwa kwemali ye-Oaktree Capital:
Ingozi enkulu ukwanda kwamanani wenzalo. Ukuhlolwa okuphezulu kwezimpahla kuncike ngokuphelele kumanani aphansi. Uma zikhula, intengo yezimpahla ingawa. Kodwa-ke, asikho isizathu esibalulekile sokulindela ukukhula kwamanani ngesikhathi esifushane, ngoba ukwehla kwamanani akhethekile akubonakali futhi, kubonakala ngami, akuhluphi i-Federal Reserves US System.
USam Finkelstein, umqondisi wabatshala
Abatshalizimali emakethe yeBond bangahlangabezana nezingozi ezimbili ngo-2021 Okwesibili, amabhange aphakathi ahlala isethi enqunyelwe yamathuluzi esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho. Kusenza sisebenzise umzamo owengeziwe ukudala amaphothifoliyo alinganiselayo, azokwazi ukusinda ekuqhumeni kokuguquguquka kwemakethe.
I-Vensen Marita, IPhini Lomqondisi Wokutshalwa Kwezimali amundi:
Umhlangano Wezimakethe Ezinyangeni Ezisanda kwenziwa kususelwa kukholo olungaboni emgomeni nasemcabangweni wentambo ukuthi konke kuzobe sekuzoba maduze nje, futhi kube ngcono. Lokhu kuyingozi: ukukhiqizwa kanye nokusatshalaliswa kwemijovo esikalini akusona ukuhamba ngepaki.
Ukukhuthaza kwezimali nokwezimali kusiza ezomnotho ukuthi ziqhubeke zikwazi ukukwazi ukukwazi ukuzulazula - kodwa kuphela esikhathini esidlule isikhathi. Sebenzisa lezi zinyathelo zokuzijwayeza ziba yinkimbinkimbi ngokwengeziwe. Kuwufanele ukulindela ukwenziwa kwemali okuthe xaxa kwezikweletu nokukhula kwengcindezi emabhange aphakathi; Manje akunakwenzeka ukucabanga ngokuwa kwezinyathelo zokulwa nenhlekelele, futhi izimakethe zibukela phansi ubungozi bephutha kwinqubomgomo balandelwa.
Ingozi yesithathu iyisivumelwano uqobo emakethe. Isabelo semakethe yebhondi enesivuno esingesihle siyakhula, ngakho-ke ukuphishekela isivuno kungathatha izinhlobo ezedlulele: amabhondi cishe ama- $ 1.5 trillion - lezi yizinkampani ze-zombie. Isilingo sokuvuma ukufakwa kwamabhondi asezingeni eliphansi ephothifoliyo kuhle, njengoba kungukubalwa eqinisweni lokuthi amanani enzalo azohlala aphansi. Kulokhu, ingozi ifa.
I-Liz Ann Saunders, I-Chief Stratestiost of Investment Charles Schwab:
Iningi lazo zonke izimo emakethe manje selikhathazekile. Impumelelo yemakethe yesikhathi sakamuva esichithe isikhathi eside, kusukela ebusweni bami, engcupheni - okulindelwe ngokweqile. Ngokwabo, abafanekiselwa ukulungiswa okungenakugwenywa, kepha kusho ukuthi imakethe ingahle ibe sengozini enkulu yezinto ezingezinhle, nganoma iyiphi indlela ababephakame ngayo.
I-Scott Maindend, Umqondisi We-Global Investoment Guggenheim Partner:
Ubhubhane luguqulwe ngokuphelele uhlelo lwethu lomnotho lwemakethe olususelwa ekuncintisaneni, ukuphathwa kwengozi kanye nenqubomgomo yesabelomali sokuqonda. Kuthathelwa indawo ukungenelela okwengeziwe ngokwengeziwe engcupheni yemali yangaphambili, engozini yesikweletu kanye nenqubomgomo yezwe lonke yokuthuthukisa ukunganaki.
Kubangela ukukhathazeka, futhi ngaphansi kobuso kunesimo sezikweletu esibi kakhulu, ukwahlulela ngokuzenzakalelayo, izinguquko ezilinganisweni, izinkomba zokusebenza kwezinkampani. Ngokuvamile, emakethe yamabhondi anezikweletu eziphezulu, izinkampani zezikweletu manje zedlula inzuzo yazo ngaphambi kwezintela nokunye ukuncishiswa ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezidlule ngamahlandla ayi-1,5. Le nkomba iphakeme kunasebangeni lomjikelezo ozenzakalelayo ngo-2008-2009, futhi, ikakhulukazi, isimo sizowohloka.
Ama-Gregory Peters, Umqondisi Ophethe Umqondisi we-PGIM Fixed Incomed:
I-inflation ihlala iyingozi enkulu yemakethe. Ngicabanga ukuthi kuzosheshisa okwesikhashana ngo-2021 ngenxa yomphumela wesisekelo esiphansi ngonyaka owedlule, bese wehlisa ijubane futhi. Kepha ingozi ukuthi ingaqhubeka nokusheshisa, futhi iguqula yonke into. Sikholwa ukuthi i-Fed izothatha isikhundla esiqinile futhi ngeke iphendule ekwenyungwini. Kepha uma okondlayo enikela ngezinzwa, futhi kuzoqala ukukhathazeka nge-inflation ngaphambili kunokuthi baqonde abahlanganyeli bemakethe, kungaba yinkinga kubo futhi ngo-2013, lapho izimakethe ziwe ngemuva kwesimemezelo of the fed on ukuwa kohlelo lokuvuselelwa kwezimali.
UDanny Jon, Umsunguli weDymon Asia Heathge Foundation:
I-dollar yehle ngonyaka owedlule, kepha ngasikhathi esithile ingawa ngamandla. Uma lokhu kwenzeka, i-Fed izolahlekelwa ukuguquguquka amanani emali angenawo amabi anikezwa, futhi angaphoqeleka ukuba ame isikhashana ekuthengeni kwempahla. Uma ulahlekelwa ukusekelwa okunjalo, umhlaba ungathola ukushaqeka okunzima. Lokhu kungenzeka ukuthi lokhu akuwona umbhalo ohlanya. Uma idola liwa kakhulu, i-Fed ingalahlekelwa amathuba okunciphisa inqubomgomo yezimali, ezonikeza ukuthengiswa emakethe yamasheya.
UPaul McNanar, ephatha amabhondi amabhondi ezimakethe ezithuthukayo ze-Gam:
Ukukhula ezimakethe zezimali kuhlinzekwa ngokubheja okuphansi okuphansi kanye nokubuyiselwa kwebhondi, kuncishiswe amanani entengo, ancishisiwe amanani entengo yokusekela amanani futhi anciphise izindleko zokuhlinzeka ngezikweletu zomphakathi.
Yize amazwe amaningi asathuthuka anomthwalo wezikweletu ephansi kakhulu kunalawo athuthukisiwe, lokhu akunakushiwo mayelana nokubuya, ngakho-ke izindleko zokusebenzisa isikweletu zazo azinciphise ngezinga elifanayo. Amabhange aphakathi nasemazweni asathuthuka anciphisa amanani enzalo enolaka njengoba athuthukile, kepha abathengi bebhondi baqaphela kakhulu. Amabhange aphakathi kwamazwe asathuthuka awanaso isikweletu esifanayo sesikweletu njengoba kuthuthukisiwe.
Isibonelo seTurkey siyalelwe ngokukhethekile: Ukwenqaba kukahulumeni ukubona izinkinga zokubhala kwemali eziholele esidlweni sokwanda okukhulu kwamanani entengo, okwaba khona cishe yinto ehlukile. Futhi lesi yisibonelo salokho esikubheka njengengozi ebanzi: Uma amazwe asathuthuka ngeke akwazi ukuthi ngokwenzeke imikhawulo ehlobene nebhalansi yemali ekhokhwayo iqinile kunasemazweni athuthukile, isimo sabo sesikweletu singawohloka kakhulu ukuthi Ihlala kungenzeka kakhulu emazweni athuthukile.
Kuhunyushwe uMikhail Overchenko