Ngomhla wonyaka omtsha, kulisiko ukwakha izicwangciso zeenyanga ezili-12 ezizayo. Namhlanje, kunye ne-qbf qbf, eleg bogdanov, sinikezela ukunikezela ngezinto ezibalulekileyo, eziphambili zehlabathi kunye nentengiso ye-Russian kunye ne-Russian kwaye zicinge ukuba zeziphi izinto ezicetyiswayo ukubheja ngoku.
Ukulungiswa kwe-uqikelelo kuyinto enzima kwaye ingenambulelo. Khumbula okungenani, ngoDisemba ugqitha ngo-2019, akukho mntu unokucinga ukuba umhlaba uza kuxhomekeka kwiimeko zebhulukhwe. Nangona kunjalo, sinokutsalela ezo ziganeko ezichonga izinto zentengiso yevenkile kungekudala.
Sithetha malunga neempawu zemeko yempilo-ntle ye-joe bayding njengomongameli wase-United States, oya kuxhomekeka kumfanekiso weGeopolitiki
UKHUSELEKO LWEZAKHONO NOKHUSELEKO LWEZOQOQOSHO
NgoDisemba 27, 2020, 80,777,962 iimeko zosulelo lwe-Coronavirus zabhaliswa kwihlabathi. Ngokucacileyo, iCodd-19 iya kuqhubeka nokujikeleza amazwekazi amahlanu kwiplanethi yethu naku-2021. Abameli beKhomishini yaseYurophu becacisa ukuba ukusasazeka kwesi sifo kuya kuthathwa phantsi kolawulo kuphela ekupheleni konyaka olandelayo.NgoDisemba 2020, izandi zesitokhwe ziye zasabela ngoloyiko kwiindaba ze "British" ye-coronavirus, ebika ngokukhawuleza kune-analogs eyaziwayo ngaphambili. Ngoku eLondon ingenisiwe i-hard itshixiwe. Inani lamazwe aseYurophu, iRussia neTshayina bagqiba kwelokuba banqunyanyiswe okwethutyana ngeBritane enkulu.
Nangona kunjalo, unyaka ophumayo ubonise ukuba imakethi yotyalo-mali ihlala ihleli kwikamva: phakathi kwe-wave yesibini ye-coronavirus, i-serity Index yakhawuleza yaya kwiMbali yaseMaxima
Inkqubo yokubuyisela uqoqosho lwehlabathi alunakulungiswa. Kwanele ukuthi kwintlanganiso kaDisemba, i-USA iphucule uqikelelo lwe-GDP ye-2020: Kulindelwe ukuba kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinambini ezidlulileyo, nangona ngoSeptemba wacingelwa ukuba Ukwehla kwi-GDP ye-2020 kuya kuba yi-3.6%. Ngowama-2021, uMlawuli waseMelika uxela ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseMelika kwinani le-4.2% (ngaphambili i-Dynamics eyakha yayiqikelelwa kwi-4%).
Abameli bebhanki yaseYurophu yaseYurophu banethemba lokubuyisela uqoqosho kulo nyaka uzayo. Usihlalo we-ECB uChristine Lagarde wathi ukwehla kwe-Eurozone GDP ngo-2020, kodwa sele i-202% i-2021 isantya soqoqosho lwe-Eurozone siya kuba ngama-3.3%.
Kwindlela yokukhululwa kweendaba zeRussia, ekhutshwe kwiziphumo zomsebenzi wokugqibela wentlanganiso ngoDisemba 18, ithi ngo-2020, ukwehla kwi-GDP yelizwe lethu kuya kufikelela kwi-4%. Abameli boMlawuli balindele ukukhula okuzinzileyo kwintwasahlobo ye-2021.
Iza kuba yintoni imigaqo-nkqubo yeebhanki eziphambili?
Iinkokheli zebhanki eziphambili zamazwe aphakamileyo ziyazi ukuba ukubuyiselwa koqoqosho akunakuba nangokomlo, ngoko bavakalisa imfuneko yokugcina umgaqo-nkqubo wemali othambileyo kunye nenkqubo yokuncitshiswa kweminyaka ezayo.
Indawo yoRhwebo yase-US ayicwangcisi ukuphakamisa inqanaba eliphambili kude kube sekupheleni kwe-2023. I-asethi yokuthenga ngenyanga kwinani lezigidi ezingama-80 bhiliyoni kunye neebhiliyoni ezingama-40 zeebhiliyoni zemali yemali yemali yenzelwe ukuqhubeka ngaphambi kokuzinzisa imeko yezoqoqosho.
Kwintlanganiso yokugqibela, ibhanki yaseYurophu yaseYurophu yongenisa inkqubo ye-EU ye-EU ye-EU nge-500 yezigidigidi ze-Euro- ngoku ivolumu yayo iyonke ifike kwi-1.85 ye-trillion ye-1 ye-trillion. Inkqubo iya kusebenza kude kube sekupheleni kuka-Matshi 2022, nangona kwasekuqaleni kwasekuqaleni ukuya kuwa ekupheleni kukaJuni 2021
I-Bhanki yaseRussia ngoku ikwimeko enzima kakhulu - amathuba ayo okunciphisa ikhredithi kunye nomgaqo-lawulo wemali olinganiselweyo ngenxa yenqanaba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso okunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngokwalo mbandela wamva kwebhanki esembindini, inqanaba lokukhula kwamaxabiso abathengi ngo-2020 liza kufikelela kwi-4.6-4.9%. Ukuba kunyaka olandelayo, izinto zezobuntlola ziya kuthi zihluze ngaphezulu, kusenokwenzeka ukuba uMlawuli okungenani okwethutyana kufuneka aphakamise iqondo eliphambili.
I-Bonds kunye neMakethi yeMali
NgoDisemba, isivuno ngamatyala eminyaka elishumi kwi-TART SIMATE kwi-1%. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ifoM ingenze uhlengahlengiso kwinkqubo ye-QE, ikhosi yokunciphisa imitya ye-Ofisi kaNondyebo ende iya kuqhubeka, kwaye inzuzo yabo inethuba lokuguqula nge-1%.Ukusebenza kwe-Russian yez kuya kuxhomekeka kwimilinganiselo ephambili. Ngoku imakethi ihlala ilinde ukuba ibhanki yaseRussia iya kufuneka iqhubeke nokuqina kwetyala kunye nemali. Ukuphakamisa amaxabiso kwiziseko ezisisiseko ezingama-25-50 akunakulindeleka ukuba kuchaphazele inzuzo ye-bondy yexesha elide, kodwa ukusebenza ngokukuko ngethuba elifutshane lokuthatha amanyathelo anokukhula.
I-Dynamics yeNdlu yoNyaka olandelayo iya kuchonga iinkalo zemeko yobutsha, izinto zentengiso yeoyile, kunye nokungabikho komgaqo-nkqubo wesohlwayo nxamnye ne-Russian Federation
Ukubuyiselwa kwamaxabiso eoyile kunokukhokelela ekuqinisweni kwe-Ruble-kwiinyanga ezininzi, imali yendawo inokunyuka ngexabiso ukuya kuthi ga kwi-ruble i-70 kwidola nganye. Ukuba, kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ozayo, umyinge wokwanda kwesisulelo se-Coronavirus uya kuphezulu, kwaye umgaqo-nkqubo weSoport wase-US emva kokuba uJoe Baden uya kuba yi-therar / i-rubles iya ku indawo engaphezulu kwe-ruble ye-ruble yaseMelika.
Kwixesha elide, imali yehlabathi evavanyiweyo njengezikhusela iya kuqhubeka nokuba yinto ecwangcisiweyo, ke malibabalwe iminyaka eliqela, kuyacetyiswa ukuba ubeke iidola okanye ii-euro. Utyalomali lwexesha elifutshane kwezi mali luyingozi, njengoko, kakhulu, ngo-2021, ukwanda kokusebenza kuya kuqhubeka kwiimarike.
Intengiso yesitokhwe
Phakathi kwabatyali mali ekhaya, inzala kwizabelo zaseRussia kunye nezokhuseleko ziya kukhula kuphela ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokunciphisa inzuzo yeedipozithi zebhanki. Ngo-2020, i-surge esemsebenzini yaqwalaselwa kwimarike yethu-ukusuka ngoJanuwari ukuya kunyaka ophumayo, ngaphezulu kwe-42 yezigidi zeendawo zokugcina i-4 kaDisemba ivela kwisitayile saseMoscow. Kunyaka olandelayo, ukuhanjiswa kwabatyali mali kwimarike ye-stock kuya kunyuka kuphela.
Ikhosi yephulo ngo-2021 iya kumiselwa kwakhona ngamanqaku emeko yempilo. Ukuba inqanaba lokusasazeka kosulelo alizukufumaneka, ukhulisa ukuthengisa, kubandakanya isiRashiya, kuya kukhula ngokukhawuleza kunokhula. Isitokhwe esikhawulezayo sezo shishini zichaphazeleka kakhulu ngexesha lexesha le-lokdanun inokunyusa imakethi ekhawulezileyo. Sele ngoNovemba-Disemba 2020, ukubuyiselwa kweekowuteshini zoKhuseleko lwamashishini aMashishini aSebenzayo, kunye nezinto ezingafunekiyo kunye neenkampani zemigodi.
Iikowuteshini zabaxhamli ophambili kwi-pidemic - abathathi-nxaxheba behlabathi kwicandelo lezamayeza kunye nemveliso yetekhnoloji - nangona kunjalo, izinga lokukhula konyaka ophumayo alusasebenzi
Ukuthobeka ngokwaneleyo kulo nyaka uzayo kuya kuba ngamandla eZabelo, ngokwesiko kuthathwa njengezikhusela, njengamandla ombane basekhaya kunye neenkampani zombane zasekhaya kunye neenkampani zombane zasekhaya. Baza kugcina uzinzo kwiPotifoliyo yoTyalo-mali ngenxa yezityalo ezizinzileyo, kodwa abayi kuba nako ukuqinisekisa isivuno esiphezulu.
Ngononophelo, kuya kufuneka wenze i-bug kubathathi-nxaxheba kwicandelo lezothutho-iziphumo zomoya waseRussia aziyi kuphila ngo-2021: baya kuza kwinqanaba eliphezulu lentlekele kwiminyaka embalwa.
Imakethi yamandla eHlabathi kunye neZinyithi ezixabisekileyo
I-Dynamics yeemarike zorhwebo ziya kumisela ukuphuculwa kwemeko yenkolo. Ukuba kwiinyanga ezizayo gonyo ziya kukuvumela ukuba unqunyulwe umgangatho wokukhula kwe-morbidity kwaye ishishini liya kuqalisa ukubuyela kwakhona, linokulindeleka ukuba imakethi iya kuvela ukunqongophala kwezixhobo zamandla. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba ukuphela konyaka uzayo, umthamo wokusetyenziswa kweoyile uya kubuyiselwa kwinqanaba lezigidi zezigidi zemihla ngemihla (le yidatha ye-2019 edlulileyo.
Ukubuyiselwa kwemfuno kuya kuba yinto efunekayo yokukhulisa iikowuti zeoyile kwaye, ngoku kunokwenzeka, hlaziya imiqathango yesivumelwano + kwicala lokwandisa isantya semveliso yeoyile
Ngokutsho kweengcali ezininzi, ngo-2021, indleko ze "igolide emnyama" ziya kuba kwimeko ebanzi ukusuka kwiidola ezingama-40 ukuya kwezingama-60 iidola nge-barrel nganye. Kwikota yokuqala yama-2021, kwimeko yolondolozo lwemeko yendlela enobunzima, amaxabiso amandla anokulungiswa, kodwa i-oscilting ebalulekileyo, njengasemthonjeni wonyaka ophumayo, sinokukuphepha.
Igolide yintsimbi ekhuselayo, ngoko ke iindleko zayo ziyakhula ngexesha lokuzinza okuphezulu. Ixabiso eliphambili lembali lexesha lesinyithi elingenasingeli lafikelela kwihlobo lonyaka ophumayo - Agasti 7, 2.068 iidola zanikwa. Emva koko kude kuye ekupheleni kukaNovemba, iindleko yegolide lancipha - November 30, le zorhwebo zivalwe isiphumo ngezantsi $ 1.780 ounce nganye. NgoDisemba 2020, i-damics eyakhayo yaphinda iphawuleka nge-25 kaDisemba, ixabiso ligqithile kwinqanaba le-1.880 yeedola nge-ounce nganye.
Ukuba ngo-2021 siza kuqwalasela ukubuyiselwa koqoqosho, abatyali-mali baya kunciphisa ngokuthe ngcembe isabelo sezixhobo ezichaziweyo, ngokulandelelana, imfuno yezinyithi ezixabisekileyo kwaye iindleko zabo zinokufumana amandla ahle. Nangona kunjalo, ngexesha lokungaqiniseki kweZicatshulwa zeGolide, iMbali yeMbali ikwazi ukuhlaziya.
Ethubeni, igolide iya kukhula. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba umda weedola ezingama-2000 nge-2021 uza kuphinda uhlale ngasemva: iingcaphuno zinokuguquguquka kwipaseji ukusuka kwi-2000 ukuya kwi-2,200
Ukubuyiselwa koqoqosho kwiziphumo zebhubhane sele kuqalile, kodwa ayiyi kuba mfutshane, ifakwe ixesha lokukhula. Kunyaka olandelayo, akunakulindeleka ukuba uphephe amathuba okutya kunye nokungaqiniseki, kodwa kwanaxa ndicebisa abatyali-mali ukukhumbula ukuba nawuphi na umngeni kwimakethi yesitokhwe izisa ngamathuba amatsha esitokhwe. Ziza kuphuhlisa njani izehlo kunye nemveliso yotyalo-mali lwasekhaya ziya kubonisa ixesha.
I-Oleg Bogdanov,
Uhlalutyo lwe-QBF qbf.