Ngexesha lengqungquthela enkulu nge-18 kaJanuwari, umphathiswa waseRussia umphathiswa wase-Sergei Lavrov wachaphazela ubudlelwane phakathi kwe-moscow enguBeijing, kubandakanya i-UN. Emva koko, kwinkonzo yaseTshayina yaza yatsho ukuba ubudlelwane bobukumkani "babhaptizwa yi-Coronaviru yaseCoronavirus entsha kwaye baqinisekisa uvavanyo ngokutshintsha." Ngo-2021, iphawuleka iminyaka engama-20 ukusayina isivumelwano esihlaziyiweyo malunga nobumelwane obulungileyo, ubuhlobo kunye nentsebenziswano. Njengommeli osemthethweni weCandelo leMicimbi yeHlabathi yeRiphabliki yaseTshayina Hua Chunin, kwesi sihlandlo ngoNyaka oMtsha weBeijing onomdla wokukhuthaza ubudlelwane bobukumkani "ngesithuba esiphezulu kunye nenqanaba elinzulu." Oku kuthetha ntoni kwaye apho indlela eya kuphuhlisa ukusebenzisana kweRussia neChina ngo-2021, yahlalutya ingcali yeziko lokufunda i-vladimir nezhdan ka-Vladimir Nezhdan.
Nangona isiqalo sika-2020 sathembisa ulindelo oluthandekayo, uBendemic uBendemic waba "yingozi emnyama", eyayinegalelo kuwo onke amaqela njengezobupolitika zehlabathi ngokubanzi kunye neRussia-Chinese. Isigqibo sobudala ekuvaleni umda weRussia-waseTshayina, izehlo kunye nabemi be-CNR ngexesha lokuqala lokuqina kwamanyathelo okukhula kunye nokwaleka kwamaxabiso okukhula koqoqosho kubangele ukuqikelela kwimbonakalo Ingxaki yentsebenziswano eMoscow kunye neBeijing. Nangona kunjalo, iRussia neRCC ayikalele kuphela ukugcina inqanaba lobudlelwane kulo nyaka luzayo ngo-2021, eboniswe kwintlanganiso edibeneyo ye Iintloko zoorhulumente baseRussia neChina, ezenzeka nge-2 kaDisemba.
Ipetroli kunye namandla aphezulu: vertices ezintsha
Intsebenziswano esebenzisa i-Russian-Chinese kwi-ipetroli kunye nobunzima bamandla ngokuthe ngcembe zikhokelela ekudalweni kobunye bamandla kula mazwe mabini. Namhlanje, intsebenziswano yamandla phakathi kweMoscow kunye neBeijing ithetha enye yezona zinto zinokuchazwa kwi-200 yeebhiliyoni ze- $ 200 ukuya kwi-2024 ityhila iRussia yokwandisa i-PRC. Ithemba lentsebenziswano lamandla ladweliswa kwinkcazo edibeneyo yaseRussia neTshayina "ekuphuhlisweni kobudlelwane phakathi kwentsebenziswano ebanzi kunye nonxibelelwano olucwangcisiweyo, ukungena kwixesha elitsha."Izixhobo zamandla zingama-63% eRussia kunye ne-China Prenover. Intsebenziswano kwi-oyile kunye negesi ihlala iphambili kwi-injini ephambili kwingxoxo yamandla e-Bilateral. Ukuhanjiswa kweoyile ukusuka eRussia ukuya e-China inyuke ukuya kwi-1.83 yezigidi zeebhanti nge-20 kaSeptemba i-oyile ye-arabia, enika i-Russia yesibini ye-BREA kwioyile ye-PRC usuku. I-Er-Riyad enenjongo yokuqinisa isikhundla sayo kwimarike yeoyile yaseTshayina, ukuhambisa kwayo inyuke nge-53% xa kuthelekiswa nezimpawu zika-Agasti. Nangona kunjalo, i-oyile ethunyelweyo kwi-oyile e-United States e-China ngoSeptemba yayikhula kasixhenxe imigaqo-sixhenxe.
Mhlawumbi, ngo-2021, i-PRC iya kuqhubeka nokwandisa ioyile. NgoSeptemba 2020, i-China ingeniswe nge-17.6% yeoyile ethelekiswa ne-2019, kwaye ke iRussia, i-United States kunye ne-Saudi Arabia iya kukhula kuphela kwimakethi yeoyile yaseTshayina.
Ukuthumela ngaphandle igesi yaseRussia ukuya e-China kwi-Mipeline ye-Miberia Pipeliline ifakwe emva kwesicwangciso. NgoJanuwari-Agasti 2020, IGazprom yaphoswa ngombhobho wezigidi zee-2,3 kuphela zerhasi, engaphantsi kwesiqingatha sevolumu ecwangcisiweyo. Ngenxa ye-pandemic, i-China ibukhali inciphise ukusetyenziswa kwegesi yendalo, kodwa yaqala ukwenza indawo yokugcina ipetroli yekamva, ukuthenga irhasi ebizayo. Nangona kunjalo, iyavela ukuba iGazprom ingenamandla kwimpuma ye-seberia ukuze ifezekise imvumelwano nge-PRC.
I-China i nayo le yeyona ntlanganiso iphambili yokuthumela ngaphandle iimakhadi zaseRussia kunye nombane. Eyona nto iphambili ekuqhubekeni kokuqhubeka kokukhula koncedo yinto engapheliyo yeziseko zophuhliso zomda. Ke, enye yemisebenzi ephambili ye-2021 kukwenza lula ukugqitywa kolwakhiwo ibhulorho ye-nizhnelenskong-tyjiang kunye nendawo yokudlula ehambelanayo, kunye nokuphuhliswa kweziseko zophuhliso zommandla.
Unxibelelwano lwezorhwebo noqoqosho: I-pandemic ayisiyo isizathu sokucothisa
Ngaphandle kwebhulukhwe, i-Russian-Chineser-ChineseRan Rest ngo-2020 ingahlaziya irekhodi kunyaka ophelileyo, xa iRhweba eMoscow kunye neBeijing igqithile kwi-11 yezigidi zeedola.
Nangona intsebenziswano kwi-oyile kunye negesi ihlala ilurhwebo lweRussia-Chinese-Chinese-Chinese-Chinese-Chinese-Chinese Kwiinyanga ezisibhozo zokuthumela ezingama-2020, ukuthunyelwa kweSoyby yaseRoma e-China kukhula nge-9% ukuya kwi-490,000 yonyaka ngokuthi yi-oyile ngonyaka, kunye ne-TOST ye-SOYBE yi-146,000 yeetoni. Ukongeza, ukuhanjiswa kwenyama kunye neemveliso ezincinci ukusuka eRussia ukuya kwi-china ukuya kwi-2020 yenyukele ngamatyeli alithoba, kunye neoli yojongilanga-i-BEEF ye-Russia. Nangona kunjalo, ngonyaka wama-2021, ubukho baseRussia kwimarike yaseSoybebbaans kunye neengqolowa zinokuncitshiswa ngenxa yokuqaliswa kwemisebenzi yokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe kwiimbotyi zesoya kunye nekowuti yengqolowa, iarye, irhasi nengqolowa.
I-Moscow kunye neBeijing iceba ukuqhubeka nokuphelisa i-hynelalic kwizibalo ezihleliweyo. Kwikota yokuqala yama-2020, isabelo sedola kwi-Rusnover yeRussia kwaye i-PRC yayimalunga nama-46%, kwaye ngo-2015 idola ephantse i-90 ye-BRODE eRussia ne-PRC. Kwangelo xesha, isabelo se-Euro kwizibalo zeBilaperal kwikota yokuqala ifikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu - iipesenti ezingama-30, isabelo se-Yuan, kunye nesabelo se-ruble yi-7%.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ii-CNR Iziko le-CNR lithetha ngokuncitshiswa kancinci kwi-Rusnover yaseRussia-Chinese. Ekupheleni kweenyanga ezilithoba ezingama-2020, i-Rusnover yaseRussia kunye ne-PRC ihla nge-2% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo lika-2019, ngokwemiphumo yeenyanga ezilishumi, iRhwebo ibonise ukwehla nge-2.3%. Kwangelo xesha, umqhubi wokurhweba wenza njengokuthumela izinto ngaphandle kwempahla ye-PRC, ngelixa amanani angenise impahla yempahla yaseRussia e-China ehleli kwindawo engeyiyo. Ngaphandle kokucotha isikhungo sendlela yokuthelekiswa ngoDisemba, ngoDisemba, ukwanda kwemfuno yezicelo zamandla aseRussia kwakulindeleke, nto leyo ekufuneka isebenze njengesiseko sokuseka irekhodi elitsha lorhwebo.
Ngenxa yoko, umsebenzi ophambili weRussia ngo-2021 iba kukudityaniswa kweziphumo zophuhliso lwe-PRC.
Iminyaka emibini yangaphambili yabahlalutyi iphawula impumelelo yabavelisi bezolimo baseRussia kwimarike yaseTshayina ngenxa yokunyuka kokungalunganga kweBeijing kunye neWashington. Ukuza kweza amandla kaJoe Bayn kunye nokulungela kolawulo lwaseMelika kwi-Pragmatic indlela engaphezulu kwezorhwebo kunye nezoqoqosho ngeBeijing kugxininisa ukuba kubaluleke kangakanani eRussia kunyaka wendlela ekumgangatho ophezulu wokuphuhlisa Urhwebo lwaseRussia-Chinese kwiimpahla kunye neenkonzo kude kube ngama-2024, kunye nokuzabalazela ukuphucula isakhiwo, echonga amanqaku amatsha okukhula koqoqosho, ukuphuculwa okuthe qeshwa kwishishini lorhwebo notyalo-mali. E China, kuphawuliwe ukuba yonke intsebenziswano yorhwebo neRussia iya kuphenjelelwa sisigaba sokuqala seSivumelwano seRiversia kwi-PRC kunye neUnited States. Nangona kunjalo, ukwamkelwa kwe "Mamap" ziya kwenza uphuhliso lwezorhwebo oluhlanganisiweyo.
Intsebenziswano kwindawo yezobuchwephesha bobuchwephesha: impumelelo kunye nobunzima
Uncedo lweRussia ekudalweni kwenkqubo yesilumkiso yohlaselo lwe-missile kwi-PRC kunye nemikhosi yomkhosi edibeneyo ingqina inqanaba lokuzithemba emangalazweni kumaqela. Ngokubonelela ngetekhnoloji ye-PRC kunye nokufundisa iingcali zeTshayina, iRussia yomeleza isikhundla sase China kwi-United States. Inqaku lemanyano yaseRussia neChina linokuba yinyani yokuba le ntsini iya kujoliswa ekunciphiseni ubungozi bokuqinisa uxinzelelo lweWashington kwiMoscow kunye neBeijing.Nangona kunjalo, ukuphikisana malunga nokulibaziseka ekunikezelweni kweenkqubo ze-S-400 ngehlobo le-200, kunye neenkcazo zediplomats zaseTshayina kwinqanaba le-160 ye-vladivostok inyanzela amajelo olwalamano phakathi kwe-moscow kunye neBeijing. Enye into ekwaziyo ukubeka uxinzelelo kwintsebenziswano yekhosi yamaqela inokuba yi-wingd wingssies entsha ye-wingd "rahmos" yophuhliso oludibeneyo lwaseRussia neIndiya. I-China ixhalabile ngomnqweno weePhilippines ukuba zifumane la marokhethi, enikezwe ukuba iRussia ibandakanyiwe kwinkqubo yokuhambisa.
Ukuqhubeka kwamandla okuqinisa intsebenziswano yasemkhosini phakathi kweMoscow kunye neBeijing, kuxhomekeka kwisiseko samalungu, ukwenzela ibhalansi yenzala ngendlela enjalo, nangaphaya kwayo kunokwenzeka ukuqinisekisa ukuba kungenzeka ukuba ube nentsebenziswano eyandisiweyo namanye amazwe ngaphandle kwengozini yolwalamano lwamazwe.
Kwelinye icala, enye yezona zinto ziphambili ze-2020 zinokuthathelwa ingqalelo ukwandiswa kweRussia kunye ne-China isivumelwano sezaziso ngokwazisa iminyaka eli-10. Oku akubonisi kuphela inqanaba eliphezulu lokuzithemba, kodwa nokulungela i-PRC ukugcina incoko kwi-jikelele yengalo. Ukwandiswa kwesiVumelwano phakathi kweMoscow kunye neBeijing kunokuba nefuthe kwi-US lolawulo lwaseMelika kwaye lenze kube ngathi iguquguqukele kwimicimbi yengxoxo.
I-Beijing's Umnqweno wokucela inkxaso yeMoscow inxulunyaniswa nenkxalabo ye-American-European Union, ijolise ekuthinteleni i-PRC. Ngokukodwa, uNato uyanda kuthetha malunga nophuhliso lwamandla omkhosi wase China njengesoyikiso kuphuhliso kunye nobukho bomanyano.
Umngeni ophambili-incoko yababini
Inkonzo yaseTshayina yaphawula ukuba i-ajenda ephambili ye-Chinamatic ngo-2021 iya komelezwa ngamaqhinga obucwangciso kunye neRussia. Nangona kunjalo, ngaphandle kwempumelelo kumanqanaba ezobupolitika kwezopolitiko, ezoqoqosho kunye nezomkhosi, iRussia ne-PRC, akunakwenzeka ukuba kusekwe incoko yesiqhelo. Kwinqanaba loluntu, abantu baseRussia bagcina isimo sengqondo seendlela ezimbini eChina.
NgoSeptemba 2020, iZiko leLeada lapapasha iziphumo zophando ezibonisa ukuqonda ezimbini ze-PRC kunye namaTshayina phakathi kwabaseRussia. Kwelinye icala, umbono yile yokuba i-china yenza umhlobo osenyongweni waseRussia, iipesenti ezingama-40 zabaphenduli. Ngokwesi salathisi, i-China Lags emva kwe-belarus enamanqaku angama-58%. Kwangelo xesha, isalathisi esiya kwi-PRC ixhomekeke kwimeko yolwalamano phakathi kweRussia naseNtshona. Ke, kude kube ngu-2014, kungabi ngaphezu kwe-24% yamaRussia awayezimisele ukubiza i-chinall yaseRussia. Kwinqanaba lobuqu, uninzi lwamaRussia alunakulungela ulwalamano olusondeleyo nabantu abavela eTshayina. Yi-10% kuphela yabahlali baseRussia ukulungele ukubona amaTshayina phakathi kwezalamane okanye zabahlobo babo. I-16% ayichasi amaTshayina ukuze ibe ngabamelwane babo okanye oogxa babo. Ngaphezulu kwesiqingatha samaRussia akhetha ukugcina abemi be-cerr kumgama ophezulu kubo, bathetha isithintelo okanye ukuvalwa ngokupheleleyo kwiRussia.
Kwelinye icala, imeko engazinzanga eRussia iyakwazi ukonakalisa iRussia Khawufane ucinge kwi-PRC. Ngo-2020, i-china iphinda iphinda iphinde ibuyele kumda ngeRussia ukuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lukabhubhane, olwakhokelela ekuphazamiseni ngokubonelela ngeempahla, ngakumbi kwimimandla yeMpuma Ekude. Ukwala ukwazisa iindawo zokuhlala kwi-Russia, kunye nokugcinwa kwemeko yesifo esibi, kungakhokelela ekudalweni komfanekiso ombi welizwe kwindawo yoluntu yesiTshayina. Ngenxa yoko, oku kunokukhokelela kwiziphumo zexesha elide kwishishini laseRussia eTshayina.
Ngenxa yoko, imiba yembono yoluntu ihlala ibuthathaka yobudlelwane baseRussia-chine.
Eyona ngonyameko iphambili yemeko enjalo kukuqokelela ukungabi nakuphikiswa okunokukhokelela ekuwohlokeni kubudlelwane beBilaterral phantsi koxinzelelo oluvela kuluntu. Ngenxa yoko, umsebenzi ophambili weMoscow kunye neBeijing ye-2021 ihlala isebenza ukomeleza ingxoxo yoluntu, ukuze impumelelo yentsebenziswano iphumelele ngokusebenzisana kwinqanaba eliphezulu kunye nocalucalulo.
I-Vladimir Nezhdanov, Mphathi woBudlelwane bamanye amazwe, iZiko leeNgqondo zokufunda amathemba okuDibeneyo