I-2020 ngokuqinisekileyo sikhumbula njengonyaka we-Lukanyunov kunye nomlo wokulwa neCovide-19, kodwa ikho enye into efanele ithathele ingqalelo ubushushu. Kunyaka ophelileyo, ubushushu obusekwe kwirekhodi kunye neendawo zide zidlule kumazantsi-ntshona e-USA. IIREKHODI ezirekhodiweyo zingqina, ze-AM, hayi malunga namaza obushushu, kodwa malunga nendlela eyoyikisayo yokukhula rhoqo kubushushu kwihlabathi liphela. I-culprerit ebonakalayo yento eyenzekayo kukutshintsha imozulu-inkqubo eqhubekayo yokutshintsha kancinci ngenxa yomsebenzi woluntu. Ngelishwa, namhlanje ukuphuma kwe-carbon diokside ukuqhubeka nokukhula, oko kuthetha ukuba umhlaba uza kujamelana neerekhodi ezintsha kwaye ezinye, ziyingozi ngakumbi. Nangona kunjalo, kuya kuba kushushu kangakanani kwixesha elizayo, abaphandi bakufumanisa kunzima. Oku kungenxa yento yokuba ukwandiswa kweqondo lobushushu emhlabeni kusekuye kuthi ga ngoku kuxhomekeke kuthi. Siza kuqalisa nini ngokukhawuleza kwaye siyiqala njani ukuthunyelwa, idlala indima enkulu kwindaleko yobushushu behlabathi.
Utshintsho lwemozulu-yintoni ekufuneka uyazi?
Ngaphandle kwento yokuba imeko yePlanethi yethu ihlala iguqukile, utshintsho lwangoku kwiqondo lobushushu lunxulumene ngokuthe ngqo nomsebenzi woluntu. Njengababhali bengxelo ebizwa ngokuba yi "Isilumkiso soluntu oluyeyona meko yemeko kaxakeka yexesha likaxakeka", etyikitye ngaphezulu kwamawaka ali-11 ubudala ngo-2019, Unamandla ngakumbi kunokuba oko bekucingelwa kwaye kusongelwa ngeyona ndlela yendalo kunye nekamva loluntu. "
Injongo yengxelo, njengoko kuphawuliwe ngomnye wababhali bayo kudliwanondlebe kunye ne-British Umgcini, kukufaka izikhombisi "zezalathisi" zemozulu eguqukayo, kwaye ayikho nje Ukukhutshwa kwe-CO2 kunye nokunyusa amaqondo obushushu ngqo kumphezulu.
Phakathi kwezizalathisi ezichaphazela ukufudumala kwehlabathi, ababhali bengxelo babela ukukhula kwenani, ukugawulwa kwamahlathi, ukunyuka kwinqanaba lolwandle, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla, inkxaso-mali yefosili yezoqoqosho nakwiziganeko zemozulu zonyaka. Ndathetha ngengxelo yengxelo kunye notshintsho lwemozulu kweli nqaku.
Kwanamanqaku achulumancisayo kwindlela yokutshintsha kwemozulu kwiplanethi yethu kwaye wenza ntoni ngayo, funda kwisitishi sethu kwiYandex.dzen. Kukho amanqaku apapashiweyo rhoqo engakho kwisayithi!
Ngaba leliphi ikamva lemodeli yemodeli?
Xa kufikwa kutshintsho lwemozulu, esona sikimu sibalaseleyo esibonisa iziganeko kwiplanethi simelwe liqela loorhulumente (i-IPCC), ekhokelwa yiZizwe eziManyeneyo (I-UN). Imicimbi ye-MVEK inika ingxelo ebanzi yehlabathi malunga nale minyaka ilishumi, kwaye le yenye yezona zinto zibalulekileyo zedatha yemozulu kunye noqikelelo.
Ingxelo epheleleyo epheleleyo yaphuma ngo-2014, kwaye oku kulandelayo kucwangciselwe i-2022, engapheliyo. Ezi ngxelo zisekwe kumsebenzi wamakhulu eendawo zokupeyinta ezivela kwihlabathi liphela kwaye zibandakanya ulwazi oluhlaziyiweyo, kunye noqikelelo lwexesha elizayo ngokusekwe kwimodeli yemozulu enzima. Funda ngakumbi malunga nengxelo yamva nje ye-MGETIK eye yanikezelwa kulwandle lwasemhlabeni, unokufunda apha.
Uyabona: Ngawaphi amazwe aqinileyo ukuba anemozulu anemozulu?
Elinye lamatye eentloko zengxelo kukuba abaphandi babiza "iindlela zokusasazwa kommeli" (i-RRP, okanye i-RCPS). Ezi ziimeko ezahlukeneyo zemozulu ezahlukileyo ezisekwe kwimigangatho eyahlukeneyo yokukhutshelwa, isuka kwithemba, iphakamisa ngokukhawuleza, ukothusa ngakumbi, icinga ukuba senze nto. Okwangoku, abaphandi be-IPCC abakhusela ukuba iziphumo zokufudumala ngama-1.5 degrees Celsius ziya kuba yintlekele.
Emva koko, ukugcinwa kokufudumeza ngezantsi kwethagethi kuya kufuna umhlaba ukubambelela kwenye yenkqubo ye-RCP efanelekileyo, ebizwa ngokuba yi-RCP2.6. Oku kukufezekisa injongo, kodwa kuphela ukuba onke amazwe atyikitye isivumelwano semozulu ye-Parsis siya kuqala ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwegesi kwiGreenhouse ngoku (kakuhle, kufuneka siqale ngo-2020). Ngemeko ephakathi ephakathi, ebizwa ngokuba yi-RCP4.5, ukuphuma kuqalisa ukwala ngo-2045. Oku kuyakuvumela ukwanda kubushushu obuphakathi phakathi kwe-1.5 ° C - 3 ° Cegrees.
Ukuba asiphumeleli ukufezekisa nayiphi na inkqubela phambili ebonakalayo ekunciphiseni ukukhutshwa, emva koko nge-2100 kwiplanethi kunokubakho ifudumeza i-3-5 degrees. Eli nani lihlala likhankanywa kwiindaba njengeziphumo ezibekiweyo, nangona ezinye iicamematologists zilumkisa ukuba kunokuba ngumda ophezulu wokwenzeka kwaye akunakulindeleka ukuba kwenzeke.
Iya kuba yinto enomdla kuwe: iya kuba yintoni ihlabathi ngonyaka ka-2050, ukuba awuyeki ukutshintsha kwemozulu?
Iziphumo zokufudumeza kwehlabathi
Ngokubanzi, abaphandi bakholelwa ukuba nge-2100 iqondo lobushushu kwiplanethi liza kuphakama ukusuka kwi-2,9 ukuya kwi-3.4 degrees Celsius, i-dueds iphile kwi-bhasi yangoku kwaye ithathelwa ingqalelo kakhulu Imeko enokwenzeka. Kodwa naphi na apho sifumana khona iminyaka engama-78, ngokuqinisekileyo iya kuba yinto entle, nokuba ibonisa ntoni i-thermometer.
Iplanethi yethu yePlanethi sele imalunga ne-1.5 degrees ezivela kumaxesha angaphambi kwemizi-mveliso, esona siseko sixhaphakileyo xa kufikwa kubushushu behlabathi. Olu tshintsho lwe-1.5 degrees sele lukhokelele kwinto yokuba inqanaba lolwandle liphuma malunga ne-7.5 i-intshi i-7.5 i-intshi, kunye neetoni ze-ices ezinkulu ziphulukana neetoni eziyi-1.3 zetrion ngonyaka. Ezi meko zemozulu zehlabathi, ezikhokelela kwizaqhwithi ezinzulu ezingakumbi, imbalela, amaza obushushu kunye nezinye iintlekele zemvelo. Enye i-degree ifudumeza inokuba nemiphumo ebuhlungu.
Izazinzulu sele zixelwe kwangaphambili ukuba amaza e-thermal alandelayo aya koyikisa izigidi zobomi kwihlabathi liphela unyaka nonyaka. Ngokutsho koqikelelo, iimbacu zemozulu ziya kumka ngakumbi ikhweyitha, eza kubangela inkxalabo malunga nokufuduka kwamazwe apholileyo, apho bayahamba khona. Izixeko ezingaselunxwemeni, kubandakanya iNew York, eJami, eJakirta, iiLagos nabanye, ziya kufuneka zilungelelane, kwaye intshukumo yabemi iguqulwe ngonaphakade i-United States kunye namanye amazwe.
Inomdla: Inguqu yemozulu inokuthi "fry" izixeko nge-2100
Kubalulekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba utshintsho lobushushu behlabathi luyintsingiselo nje. Kwezinye iindawo ukufudumeza kunokuba nzima kakhulu. Ewe kunjalo, asikokokuqala ukuba umhlaba ufudumeza umhlaba. Kuyo yonke imbali yeplanethi yethu, bekukho amanqaku amaninzi apho iqondo lobushushu (kunye nenqanaba le-carbon dioxide) laliphezulu. Olunjani lona ukwahlula ixesha langoku, ke le isantya apho utshintsho lwenzeka khona. Amaqondo obushushu avutha kakhulu kumakhulu eminyaka, hayi amashumi okanye amakhulu amawaka.