Kwintlanganiso elandelayo, nge-12 kaFebruwari, i-Central Bank iyakugcina iqhosha lokuBenga, i-Economiest liqinisekile. Oku kulinde udliwanondlebe nodliwano-vanOMberg: Baxela kwangaphambili ukugcinwa kwenqanaba kwi-4.25%. Umqondiso onjalo wanikwa ibhanki esembindini ngokwayo: Utshintsho kumaxabiso kwiinyanga nje zamva nje lubonisa ukuba "ukuba kunokwenzeka [ukuphakamisa i-Alexey Kakotn yebhanki yebhanki yebhanki yebhanki yebhanki.
Ngokungafaniyo neentlanganiso zexesha elidlulileyo, i-rank yebhanki yebhanki inokuthi iqinelwe. Umlawuli uya kuyikhuphela umqondiso malunga nokuhla kwenqanaba elinokwenzeka ngexabiso, i-Renaisstry Aconorist "iRenaissance Capital" yeSophia isebenza. Akunakulindeleka ukuba sisayine kwaye sinyuse ukunyuka okunokwenzeka. Utshintsho oluncinci kwi-ratoric lunokwenzeka ngo-Epreli, kunye nenqanaba lokuqala lokuphakamisa amanqaku asisiseko angama-25 - ngoJuni, u-ofts uthi.
Kutheni Kumaka?I-Central Bank iyakugcina ukubheja ngenxa yemiqondiso yokunyuka kwamaxabiso okusasazwa, oonoqoqosho baqwalasele. NgoJanuwari, ulindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso labemi baqala ukuncipha. Kodwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwinkcazo yonyaka kuyakhawulezisa ukusuka ku-4.8 ukuya kwi-5.2% ngenxa yesiphumo sesiseko esisezantsi. Ukukhawulezisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinkonzo, okukhokelele ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okunyuka kwamaxabiso (ayithatheli ingqalelo iimpahla, amaxabiso aphikayo) ngoJanuwari.
Amaxabiso okutya yehlabathi ayakhula. NgoJanuwari 2021, ixabiso eliphakathi kwesalathiso sokutya se-FAO (Ukutya kunye noMbutho wezoLimo) safikelela amanqaku ali-113.3 AMANQAKU-Lo ngowangoJulayi 2014.
Ekupheleni kuka-2020, abahlalutyi bebhanki esembindinisiwe balumkisiwe ekupheleni kuka-2020 (isikhundla sabo asinakuhambelana nombono osemthethweni webhanki esemthethweni). Phakathi kwezinto ezinjalo ababeyibiza:
- Ukwenza ubuthathaka kwi-ruble;
- Ukukhula kwamaxabiso okutya kwehlabathi kwaye kunciphise isityalo sempahla nganye;
- Ibango lonyango lwethutyana lweempahla ezifunekayo;
- ukukhula kweendleko zeenkampani ngenxa yeemfuno zococeko;
- Ukutshintsha imfuno yabantu abavela kwiinkonzo zeempahla;
- Ukunciphisa umgaqo-nkqubo wemali kunye nemali.
Kodwa izinto ezingathandekiyo zikwaqhubeka, umlawuli weLizwe utyalo-mali "i-LOCMY FIL: Ngenxa yamathemba obuthathaka ngokukhula kwabantu kunye nomthengi ebolekayo, ngokunjalo ngenxa yokuqina koMgaqo-nkqubo woHlahlo-lwabiwo mali.
Yintoni elandelayo?Ngokutsho koluqiqileyo kubahlalutyi bebhanki ephakathi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kufikelela kwincopho ngoFebruwari 2021, emva koko uqale kancinci. Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokunciphisa umda weemveliso zomntu ngamnye kunye notshintsho kubume bengqolowa, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya kuya kunciphisa ukuya kwi-5% phakathi konyaka, okuya kunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso nge-0.7 ye-PP, ukulinda i-Renaister ". Kodwa ummiselo wamaxabiso uya kwenza i-ratoric yebhanki ephambili, ngokuchasene noko, ngokuchaseneyo, i-chpelly, kwaye i-chpen, kuba ibhanki esembindini ayixhasi inyathelo likarhulumente, babhala.
Iingcali zezoqoqosho zihlolwe nguBloomberg zivumela amaxabiso esiseko angama-25-50 kwaye kuphela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka 2022-2023. Imakethi ibeka ulindelo olunobundlongondlongo, olubhala kwintsimi yentsimi: Ukunyuka kwenqanaba ukuya kwi-2022% kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2022, ukuya kuthi ga kwi-5% ye-ipz curve ehambelana ne-IRTE ukuya kwi-6% yokuphela kuka-2022 - ukuqala kuka-2023.
Kodwa i-IMF icebisa ibhanki ephambili yaseRussia kwiinyanga ezizayo ukunciphisa ukubheja kweqhosha kwi-50 BP, ukuze ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungahambi phantsi kwethagethi (4%). Kuyimfuneko ukuba wenze indawo yokuqhubela phambili kwikamva, ayacacisa: ukuba ingcinezelo yonyuso lwenkunkuma, emva koko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokukhawulezisa emva koko i-Central Bank iya kufuneka iphendule kwixabiso.