Iziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu ziya kubonakaliswa kwiplanethi. Kwenye indawo impembelelo iya kuba mbi kakhulu kwaye iyonakalise, kodwa eminye imimandla inokungenelwa ngenxa yokufudumeza, izazinzulu zePrincel Truz noSteban Resz noSteban Ressi-Hansberg zibhalwe malunga neziphumo zophando olutsha.
Kwenye indawo ukufudumeza kwehlabathi kuya kunika ukwanda kwentsebenzo nge-15%
Izazinzulu zinemodeli yokudityaniswa edibeneyo ebanzi ibalile kwiimpembelelo zoqoqosho apho umhlaba uza kuzisa ubushushu kumazwe ahlukeneyo. Ngaphezu koko, kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zeplanethi, ezingazange zingabangamki kuphela iziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu, kodwa neempendulo ezinokubakho kuzo ziyafuduka, ukutshintsha iitekhnoloji zorhwebo, ukusebenzisana phakathi kwezoqoqosho. Ngaphambili, ezi zinto, kunye noqikelelo lweenkcukacha zemozulu yemimandla eyahlukeneyo, izazinzulu zinike ingqalelo encinci, gxininisa ababhali.Ukonyusa ubushushu beplanethi yesigaba esi-1 se-Cellius kwiindawo ezinazo kuya kukhokelela ekuwohlokeni kweemeko zamakhaya nge-5%, kunye ne-15%. Ngenxa yoko, intlalontle kwamanye amazwe e-Afrika naseLatin America kungawa nge-10-15%. Ngokuchasene noko, kwiindawo ezibandayo kakhulu - iSiberia, eCanada, Alaska, njalo njalo. -Intlalontle inokukhula nge-15%, izazinzulu zePrinceton ziyakholelwa. Kwangelo xesha, amazwe ahlwempuzekileyo aya kubandezeleka kakhulu, ngelixa ezona zintle zichaphazelekile ngokungacwangciswanga.
Isifundo siphakamisa ingxaki ebaluleke kakhulu yokungalingani kokusasazwa kwendawo yokutshintsha kwenzululwazi, amagqabantshintshi kuMlawuli weqela le-KPMG eRussia naseCis Vladimir Lukhin. Uphando malunga nalo ngumahluko obalulekileyo kwiindleko zokulungelelanisa ukutshintsha kwemozulu kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo yeplanethi, kunye nemiphumo efana nemizi-mveliso yehlabathi kunye nokuhamba utyalomali. Ngokucacileyo, kufuneka ithathelwe ingqalelo xa iphuhlisa amanyathelo okulawula ukuthintela utshintsho lwemozulu. Okokuqala, ichaphazela izixhobo zezezimali ezifana neRhafu ye-carbon okanye i-carbound yekhabhoni ye-carbon (amazwe athambileyo (amathuba asenokwenzeka ukuba le mali isetyenziselwe ukuxhasa ngakumbi amanyathelo), i-LEKIN.
Kodwa ayiyiyo kanye
Nangona kunjalo, ababhali ngokwabo baziqonda ukuba imodeli ngokuqinisekileyo icacisa iimpembelelo ezibalulekileyo (kunye nomlinganiswa wabo ombi okanye ofanelekileyo) kwimimandla enemozulu egqithisileyo, kodwa isikali sayo asizizo. Ngenxa yoku, akunakwenzeka ukuba ekugqibeleni uqikelele impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kwilizwe jikelele.
Isifundo esitsha asinakuthatha ingqalelo zonke izinto, kuba nayiphi na imodeli yenziwe lula. Ingxaki kukuba kuphela iziphumo ezilula ezilula zilula ngokulula, kwaye zintsonkothile kwaye zingathandeki- hayi kwaye ngenxa yoko, ngenxa yoko, umlawuli weenkonzo ezikwintsimi yophuhliso oluzinzileyo iSergey Dergey Deiman.
Ewe kunjalo, umonakalo wokutshintsha kwemozulu uya kungathotywanga kwaye apha izinto zeJografi zeJografi zibandezeleka kakhulu - ukukhula komgangatho ongumntu kuya kubandezeleka, amaqhinga aluhlaza, imbalela okanye i-DROPORS engaphezulu kokuqhubeka. Kodwa kuphosakele ukucinga ukuba kwezinye iindawo, iindlela ezintle zenqanaba lomonakalo okhulayo ovela kutshintsho lwemozulu.
IRussia isithembiso esitsha kwezolimo
Isibakala sokuba amazwe aliqela anokuthi afumane izibonelelo zokufudumeza kwehlabathi ezingabhalwa okokuqala. "Akukho lizwe lilungile kuneRussia, ukuze babe nakho ukuzuza kubushushu behlabathi," iNew York Times ngaphambili, ikwabhekisa kuphando. IRussia iya kuba nemeko entle kakhulu eya kuvumela kwaye itsale abafuduki (okokuqala kubo bonke amazwe ase-Asia, eya kugxotha ubushushu obuzayo kunye nobushushu obuzayo), kwaye bandise indawo ye-USA , IYurophu kunye neIndiya baya kuhla kwehla), bachazwa kwinqaku.Ngenxa yeziphumo ezinokubakho zokutshintsha kwemozulu, urhulumente waseRussia kwisicwangciso sikazwelonke sokulungiswa kwemozulu ithathe:
- ukunciphisa iindleko zamandla kwilizwe lokufudumeza;
- Ukuphucula iimeko zothutho kwiilwandle ze-Arctic kuLwandle lweArctic;
- ukwandisa umda wemveliso yezityalo, ukwanda kokusebenza kakuhle kwemali yezilwanyana;
- Ukonyusa imveliso yemveliso (oko kukuthi, amahlathi angenakuthintelo) amahlathi.
I-Russia, kukho amaxesha aliqela ophumeleleyo, ithathela ingqalelo iqabane le-BCG Iqabane leKonstantin Poponin. Okokuqala, kuhamba ulwandle lwantlandaba unyaka wonke. Okwesibini, ukufikelela kwiiminerali, ukukhupha ebengenzeki ngaphambili. Okwesithathu, ukwanda kwendawo yomhlaba olinyiweyo kunye nokukhula kwabantu ngaphandle kokutya. Kunye neyesine, ukusukela eRussia malunga ne-20% yazo zonke izitokhwe zehlabathi ezinamahlathi kwaye zinokuthanda njengamandla okubopha i-carbon elinganayo ye-subbon inokuzisa iRussia umvuzo omkhulu.
Ewe kunjalo, unokufumana iziphumo ezilungileyo, utsho uDaman. Umzekelo, amandla okufudumeza eRussia anokufuna okuncinci, kunye nemeko yomoya-ngakumbi, kodwa hayi kakhulu. Kodwa kukho ilahleko enkulu enkulu, umzekelo, kwiziseko zophuhliso zamandla ngenxa yokukhula kwe-frequency yehla, inguqu nge-zero, amaqondo obushushu acacileyo. Nokuba ukusebenza kwe-TPP ngokwanda kweqondo lobushushu liyatsho, litsho.
Kodwa ngentlekele yemvelo kwaye ngaphandle kwe-hydrocarbon kuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe
ERussia, imeko inomdla kakhulu, ithi i-LEKIN: Kukho imimandla apho iimeko zicace khona - ixesha lokukhula, njl. Kwaye kukho imimandla apho imingcipheko emitsha kunye nezisongelo ezihambelana notshintsho lwemozulu zivela: umzekelo, ukunyibilika kwe-5msityrost.
Ngoku umhlaba ubekwe kwi-trajectory, engakhokelela kwi-1.5 degrees, kunye ne-4-5 i-4-5 Celsius ifudumeza ngasekupheleni kwenkulungwane ye-XXI, ikhumbuza i-thounin. Ngelixa zonke iimodeli zibonisa ukuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kuya kuba yinto engalinganiyo (kwindawo yokugaya iMiganga, i-Wigrees nge-5-9) kwaye ibonakaliswe kwakhona kwi-phegmena yemozulu enkulu (i-rogrees, i-rogundanes, imililo, njl njl.) . Ukutshatyalaliswa minyaka le ukusuka kwi-phenomena yonyaka sele kuqikelelwa kwi- $ 600 yezigidi, kwaye ngaphezulu kwe- $ 1 i-trillion ifikelelekile. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lweenkampani zeinshurensi, ngo-2050, ngokunyuka kwenqanaba lolwandle le-0.5 m, ifuthe elibi kwizixeko ezingama-570 ezikwi-Russia, eRussia, kunokuchaphazela ubuncinci be USt. Petersburg kunye neVladivosk. Kumgangatho wehlabathi, ukufudumeza kunokukhokelela ekufudukeni eyongezelelweyo yabantu abangama-200. Konke oku kunokukunciphisa ukukhula kwe-GDP yehlabathi nge-30%, izaziso-enye.
Intlekele yendalo ayidli iRussia. Ngo-2019, ukusuka kwirhafu yerhafu nganye esebenza i-ruble ezilishumi lama-10,000. Yaya kuphelisa imiphumo ye-phenomena eyingozi, ibalele iZiko lemozulu yehlabathi roshydromet. Umonakalo wonyaka ovela kutshintsho lwemozulu eRussia lulinganiswa ngamashumi ezigidi zeebhiliyoni zeruble, i-Luokin ifana. Ke ngoko, inikezwe loo mfuziselo eRussia yenzeka ngokukhawuleza amaxesha ukusuka kunomndilili wehlabathi (Roshydromet ezi), ingqalelo ekhethekileyo kufuneka ihlawulwe kwiindlela eziphambili zemozulu kunye neendlela eziphezulu, uyakholelwa.
Ukunyibilika kwe-5msityrost kuya kubangela ukonakala kwishishini kunye neziseko zeRussia (ngokoqikelelo oluthile, ilahleko i-100 yeebhiliyoni nge-20 yeedola), i-Photounin. Xa ufudukela kuqoqosho lwekhabhoni, imfuno yeemveliso zeoyile kunye neoyile yi-EU inokuncipha kakhulu, ngokutsho koqikelelo oluthile-ukuya kuthi ga kwi-80%. Kodwa kufanele ukuba kukhuliswe kakhulu kumaxabiso okutya, uthi.
Kwezolimo, imimandla emitsha iya kuvela ngamaqondo obushushu afanelekileyo - kodwa apho ezolimo ezingenakwenziwa, imihlaba ayikhiwanga, akukho ziseko zophuhliso, zilumkisa uDaman. Kwaye kwezo ndawo ziphi ezolimo zezolimo yayisisiseko soqoqosho, kuya kubakho ilahleko yezityalo: Ukupheliswa, imbalela, ishawari ende enezikhukula.
"IRussia iya kulahlekelwa yinkqubo yemozulu kunye nenkqubo ye-Enem kunye neNkqubo yeMidlalo yeHlabathi yeZilwanyana zasendle (i-WWF Russia) i-Alexey Kokoririn i-Aleberiric. Kuya kubakho ifuthe ngqo ngqo apha kunamanye amazwe, kodwa ukusuka kwi-Wilori yeoyile, amalahle kunye negesi- iyacacisa.