Ugonyo oluninzi, intengiso ibekwe uloyiso kwintsholongwane. Umzi mveliso ubuyiselwe, amaxabiso eeasethi ezingafunekiyo ezikhula, kubandakanya ioyile. Imodeli yethu ye-oyile kwi-1Q21 inyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-65 yeedola kwi-barrel nganye kunye nokuhla kwe- $ 58 nge-2k21. Ngokukhula kweekowuti zeoyile, imali yethu yesizwe yomelezwa. Kodwa kukho enye "kodwa" - yile mingcipheko we-geopolical (i-naalny, isohlwayo saseMelika), esenza iingxaki zokuqinisa i-ruble, kwaye ixhase ubuthathaka bedola yaseMelika.
Kweli nqaku siza kubona:
- Sisiphi isibini semali efanelekileyo ukuze sidlale ukukhula kweoyile;
- Iimali ezinokufumana imali.
Kwaye ngubani, ukuba akunjalo
Kule meko siye sazibuza: Yintoni enye ewina ngayo ekukhuleni kweoyile, ngaphandle kwe-ruble yethu? Kwaye emva koko sakhumbula iCanada kunye nedola yakhe (Cad).
Ewe, ukujonga itshathi ye-USD / i-SURY NE-USD / CAD, siza kubona ulungelelwaniso olucacileyo.
Njengoko kunokubonwa kwitshathi, de kube nge-21 kaJulayi, iimali ezihamba kunye. Kwaye ke i-ruble yethu iye yaba lixhoba le-geopolics, uqhankqalazo eBelasus, ityhefu ye-Nalaliny, unyulo loMongameli we-United States, kunye nemogaqo eyenziwe buthathaka kwi-Dolling yesohlwayo, ngelixa i-canada Idola iqhubeka ukuqinisa. Emva konyulo lukaMongameli wase-United States (i-Peak kwishedyuli ngoNovemba 2-3), imali yethu yesizwe yaqala ukomeleza, kuba yayithatha inxenye yomngcipheko we-geopolical. Kodwa ngoku imingcipheko yesohlwayo iphinde yomelezwa ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yeNavalny, ngoko ke i-rable iphinde yabuthathaka ukuba injani ekwindla.
Yongeza ioyile yeBrent kwitshathi.
Kule grafu, sele sibonakala ngokucacileyo njengenkunkuma kunye ne-CAD ebuthathaka xa ioyile iwela. Kwangelo xesha, ehlotyeni, xa amaCanada aqalisa ukomeleza imvelaphi yokukhula kweekowuti zeoyile, inkcubeko yethu yenze buthathaka ngenxa yezizathu esele zisaziwa. Kwaye emva konyulo e-US, zombini iimali zaqala ukomeleza idola ngemvelaphi yeoyile.
Kutheni idola yaseKhanada ixhomekeke kumaxabiso e-oyile
ICanada ngumgodi omkhulu weoyile. Ngokweziphumo zika-2019, eCanada bavula i-5 kwi-oyile evelisiweyo, evelisa iitoni ezingama-200 ezigidi. ICanada ikwaliqabane eliphambili le-USA kumandla orhwebo, kwaye isabelo se-ioyile sithunyelwa ngaphandle eMelika.
Ndicebisa ukuba ndibone ubume bokuthumela ngaphandle kweCanada ngoNovemba 2020
Sibona ukuba icandelo lezemveliso lamandla liye kwi-Roma 6.9 yezigidigidi okanye i-15% yezinto ezithunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe ngoNovemba. Ngo-Okthobha-14%. NgoNovemba 2019, isabelo sobutyebi bamandla yayingama-20% e-Novemba 2019. Eli nqaku linesona sakhiwo siphezulu, ke eyona nto ibiza kwi-oyile, eya kuthi ihambele phambili iphinde iguqulwe kwi-canadar yeedola.
Ngokusekwe kwimizobo kunye nesakhiwo sokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe, sikholelwa ukuba ukukhula kweoyile kusengqiqweni ngakumbi kwi-USD / CAD, ibeka idola yaseKhanada, kuba Ayichaphazeli umngcipheko we-geopolialical, ngokungafaniyo ne-ruble yethu.
P. S. JOE Biden ngolwesiThathu ophindaphindiweyo wokwakha i-keystone XL Pipeliline e-Calgary ngenxa yokungathobeki kweprojekthi kunye nemozulu yolawulo. Oku kugxile kubudlelwane borhwebo lwase-US neCanada kwaye banokuphalaza imfazwe yorhwebo lwasekhaya. Siza kuyilandela le meko kwaye sijonge indawo yokungena efanelekileyo.
Zeziphi ezinye iimali ezingezombono ezinokomeleza idola
I-Turkish Lira
Umbono kwisicwangciso sokurhweba. Esi sisicwangciso sokulamla esisekwe kumahluko phakathi kwamanqanaba okwala la mazwe mabini. Namhlanje kwiimarike eziphuhlisiweyo zero kunye namaxabiso ambi, ke imali ifuna inzuzo kwiimarike ezivelayo.
Iqondo eliphambili leTurkey ngoku kwinqanaba le-17%. Kulindeleke ukuba ayigcine kwinqanaba elinye kwintlanganiso ngolwesine. Ukulandela iziphumo ezingama-2020, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso yayiyi-14.60%. Imvumelwano yokulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwi-15,5% ekupheleni kwe-1Q21, kwaye inciphise ukuya kwi-10.5-11.2% ukuphela kuka-2021.
Isivuno se-10-bind ye-turkey yeTurkey yi-13.1%. Ngoku ireyithi yokwenyani yenzuzo yezi bhanti ayilunganga kwaye ilingane ne-1.5%. Kodwa xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyancipha, iqondo lokwenyani ekupheleni kuka-2021 lisenokungafikeleli kwi-2%, eliya kuba negalelo kwi-influx ye-carlux ye-Turkish.
Kwiveki elindelekileyo (iphele 17.01), ngokutsho koPhando lweNgxowa-mali yeNgxowa-mali (e-Epfr), ivolumu yotyalo-mali kwi-7 bhiliyoni ukusuka kwi-4 bhiliyoni ukusuka nge-4 kaJanuwari ukuya kwi-10 i-offflow engaphezulu kwe- $ I-1.5 yezigidigidi. Inxalenye yezi mali iye eTurkey.
Kwakhona, i-sublue yemali ye-turkey eTurkey inokubonelela ngeXesha lezoKhenketho, eliza kuba lisebenza ngakumbi kune-2020.
Kodwa kuyimfuneko ukuba icocekile kwaye ayilibali ngemingcipheko ye-turkey yeTurkey Lyra:
- Ukuxhomekeka kwikhosi evela kwiingxelo zikaMongameli, ezaziqwalaselwa yiyo yonke i-2020;
- Ukukhula kwe-akhawunti yangoku kwi-4 yeebhiliyoni ngo-Novemba ukusuka kwi-340 yezigidi ngo-Oktobha-i-akhawunti yeakhawunti yangoku, kokukhona i-lira iyathengiswa;
- Imali igcina imali thabatha i-thanus i-thanu i-Central Bank ingeneleli ukuba ingenelele kwimarike yemali kwaye, qinisa i-lira.
Apha kuya kufuneka ukhethe inqaku lokungena, kodwa linokuba kufutshane nokuphela kwe-1k21, xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kukhutshwa kwincopho.
I-Argentine Peso.
Sibona ukuphakama okukhawulezayo kumaxabiso ezinto ezithambileyo (i-soy, ingqolowa, ingqolowa, iswekile) kwinyanga ezi-6 ezidlulileyo (+ 40%) ngaphezulu kokunyuka Ngamaxabiso obhedu (lme). I-UN (FAO) AMANQAKU AMANQAKU AMANQAKU AYA KUPHELA kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka emi-6.
Makhe sijonge indawo yokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe yaseArgentina.
Sibona ukuba izinto ezithambileyo zenze ~ I-60% yokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe i-9m20, ngoko uqoqosho lweArgentine kufuneka uphumelele ukusuka ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso. Siza kubukela lo mbuzo ucacise kwaye sibuhlungu kwaye sibuyele kuyo, kwaye oku kukutya okuncinci okucinga.
Inqaku libhalwa ngokusebenzisana ne-Viktor Viktor Lowov
Funda amanqaku asekuqaleni: