I-2020 iza esiphelweni, kwaye siyayikhumbula njengonyaka "wezinto ezimangalisayo." Akukho mntu unokuqikelela ukuqala kobhubhane wehlabathi, kwaye akukho mntu wayelindele ukuba akukho nyaka uza kuphelisa "intetho ye-proululive."
NgoFebruwari (kwanangaphambi kokuqala kokusasazeka kwehlabathi le-Coronavirus), sasihlaziya ingxelo yethu ngo-2019 kwimingcipheko ekhulayo yokudodobala kwemali. Ngelo xesha, amajelo eendaba nabahlalutyi kunye nesitrato seWall sasingakwazi ukwenza ukungavisisisisani kwi-thertizon, kwaye ukuphela kwe-2021 ingeniso ephakathi kwi-1700.
Emva koko saphawula:
"Owona mngcipheko uphambili kuqoqosho kunye neemakethi ayisiyo-coroconavus. Okokuqala, kufanelekile ukuphazamiseka kwe-chain yoncedo lwehlabathi.
I-theit yedatha iphakamisa ukuba umngcipheko wokudodobala uthatha ixesha liphezulu kunovavanyo lweendaba. Oku kukwacebisa kwinzuzo yetyala loluntu kunye namandla entengiso. "
Kwaye emva kwenyanga, ihlabathi liqandule. Kwinyanga ezayo, imakethi yesitokhwe yawa nge-35% ukusuka kwingxelo yawo ye-maxima, kwaye uqoqosho lwantywiliselwa kwi-redonsions yokudodobala kwendalo ukusukela "uxinzelelo olukhulu".
Nangona kunjalo, ukuwa kwixabiso lezahlulo kukhokelele kwinaliti enkulu yokwahlulahlula intengiso kwimbali yayo yonke.
Lixesha le-FRS
Nangona ukuwa kwemakethi yesitokhwe kwakubi kakhulu, uninzi lwabo bonke abo bondli baphazanyiswa kukhuliselwe ubutyulo. Isitalato seWall Street rhoqo malunga nemeko eyaneleyo yokuxhasa iibhanki. Ngapha koko, ukunyuka okuncinci kwamaxabiso kunokuzisa ekuhlawuleni.Kwimeko yokuwohloka kwemeko yendlela yokufota kunye nokuwa kwemisebenzi yezoqoqosho, inkqubo yogcino lwe-Federal yanyanzelwa ukuba isebenzise iindlela zabo zemali. Ngenxa yongenelelo, ibhalansi yomlawuli ikhule kwisayizi ngaphambili.
Imigudu yokutya iqhele ijika ijika kwaye ibuyise "iimeko zemali" ukurekhoda amanqanaba asezantsi. Akumangalisi ukuba imvelaphi yabatyali-mali e-Super Annel Anmol Annel (apho uMlawuli ephuhlise i-Reflex enemiqathango) iminyaka emininzi) ukhawuleze ukuthenga zonke iimpahla ezikhoyo.
Ewe kunjalo, ukuba abatyali-mali abanamali- akuyi kubakho "kwintengiso" yokutshaya ". Xa ubhubhane wemisa yonke iminyhadala yemidlalo, abadlali abadla ngokuzonwabisa ababehlengahlengiswa kwekhoboka bafika kwimarike yevenkile.
Ukukhuthaza abadlali abathengisana nabarhwebi
Kuyo yonke imbali yokudodobala kwemali, bachaphazele kakubi ukuthengisa. Ukudodosa ngokukhawuleza kwezoqoqosho kuyekishwa ngubhubhane akufuneki kube njalo: inani labangasebenziyo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezibonelelo kugqitywe zizalathiso zalo naluphi na unyango lwangaphambili.
Ukuphendula, urhulumente wanika i-subredges engaphangeliyo yezibonelelo, eziphakamise umvuzo wabemi. Nangona kunjalo, kwiimeko "ze-lokdaun", imali yayingabuyiswanga kuqoqosho, kodwa yathatha imo yokonga.
Ngaphantsi kwempembelelo yoRhulumente "ukukhuthaza", abantu bayeka ukubeka ezemidlalo, kwaye endaweni yoko baqala ukutyala imali kwizitokhwe.
Impumelelo iphumelele
Njengoko siphawulile kwelinye lamanqaku angaphambili:
"Ngo-2020, inani labasebenzisi beqonga lokuthengisa simahla likhule ngaphezulu kwezigidi ezithathu kwaye lingaphezulu kwezigidi ezilishumi elinesithathu. Iminyaka yobudala yabarhwebi babucala yiminyaka engama-31 ubudala. Ukutshixelwa kunye nokuwa kwemarike ye-Matshi kushukuma izigidi zabatyali-mali abatsha ukuvula iiakhawunti. I-disnamics ngokuyinxalenye ixhaswa ngabantu abanokudlala ngokungxama okanye benze i-Bets yezemidlalo (eyathi ibhiyozekile).
Njengoko siphawulile eli nqaku, iqonga le-Robh le-Rothi lenza umsebenzi "enkosi." IYAMBI:
"I-irany ikwenza ukuba i-robines ingenazityebi. Ufumana umvuzo, ulumkile kumahlwempu. " Umzekeliso malunga netshizi yasimahla ayizalwa kwindawo engenanto; Inkqubo ye-ROBINOSOFSOF isebenza, kwaye emva koko ithengise le datha malunga nokubeka abatyali babucala kwiimali ezinkulu zehedge.
Ngenxa yoko, abatyalomali bamaziko bayakwazi ukurhweba ngokuthe ngqo kwikomkhulu labucala. (Ukuba ibingeyongeniso kakhulu, i-hedge yengxowa-mali ayizukuhlawula izigidi zedatha). "
Akumangalisi ukuba kungenxa yesi sizathu sokuba i-Robine ihlawule i-RoBlobon yezigidi ezingama-65 yezigidi ze-Subrity yeKhuseleko kunye neKhomishini yoTshintshiselwano (sec).
Ugonyo kunye nonyulo lutsalela "Bokov"
Xa iimarike zibuya ngokuwa komhla we-31 ka-Matshi, abatyali-mali banikela ingqalelo kumathemba okukhulisa ukukhutshelwa kohlahlo-lwabiwo mali kunye nokuqala kogonyo lwesininzi. Nangona kunjalo, ukuphoxeka okuphindaphindayo kukhokelele kwinto yokuba iminyaka ebuthathaka yentengiso echithwe kwindawo esecaleni. Njengoko siphawulile ngaphambili:
"... iimarike ziyaqhubeka nokuxoxa ngokuhambelana nemeko yeklasi yonyaka wonyulo. Nangona kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ngokuqinisekileyo babephantsi koxinzelelo, ukuncipha kwenxalenye kwakuyalelwe.
Ukujonga lonke unyulo lwangaphambili ukusukela ngo-1960, inokubonwa ukuba unyuselo oluqhelekileyo lonyaka lphantse lube yi-8.4% (ngaphandle kwengxaki yemali ka-2008 nangama-2020).
Ekubeni impapasho yethu, imakethi yaqhubeka ikhula ngokungqinelana nolindelo kunye nembali esele ihlaziyiwe imbali. Unyulo lukaJoe Bayden kunye nokunikezelwa kwezitofu zokugonya aziswe kwinzondelelo yabatyali-sisa kukhethwa kookhokho. Njengoko sasibhala ngaphambili:
"Kumzobo ongezantsi, ixabiso elikhawulezayo lezalathi ezizithembileyo kweziko labadlali kunye nabadlali abathile, bafunyanwa ngokubuya kwimbuyekezo kwixesha elizayo kutyalo-mali. Xa isalathiso siqinisekile, intembelo kukuba kwimakethi iya kubhangisa kumanqanaba aphezulu, kunangoku, iphezulu kunentembelo kuvavanyo lweentengiso. Kwangelo xesha, okuchaseneyo kuyinyani.
Isiphelo esiphambili kukuba abatyali mali ngaxeshanye baqwalasele imarike kwaye baphinde bakukhuseleke, kwaye balungele ukukhula ngakumbi. "
I-phenomeno efanayo ichazwe nguSihlalo wangaphambili we-Alan Greenspan ngentetho kaDisemba ka-1996 kwisandi ".
Iimpawu zomkhuhlane
Okokugqibela, njengonyaka omtsha wezikhuni ezingama-2021, kukho imiqondiso yokuba iimakethi zifikelele kwinqanaba "umkhuhlane".
Ngoku abatyali-mali abangaphezulu koko banokuqiniseka ekukhuleni kwexesha elizayo.
Oku 'kukukhululeka "kulibaziseka phantse konke:
"Kufuneka ubuze ukuba ingakanani" ipetroli eshiyekileyo kwitanki, "ecinga ukuba kwane-avid" ibhere "ithemba ngoku. Ngenxa yoko, lo mbuzo unokuqulunqwa ngolu hlobo lulandelayo: "Ukuba yonke into sele ithengisiwe, ngubani oza kuthengela?".
Kwaye oku akubonakaliswa kungekuphela nje kwiimvakalelo, kodwa kukwindawo eqingqiweyo yabatyali-mali. Okwangoku, le ntengiso ibonakalisa ukholo oluqinileyo lwabarhwebi kwinto yokuba izabelo azisilele.
Le ntembeko ibonakaliswa kwiimpawu ezininzi ezibonisa ukuba abatyali mali bathenga "Iphepha elinobungozi" ngexhala elinexhala. Ngokutsho komzobo we-4-palt ongezantsi, abatyali-mali baneemali ezityale imali kwiimali kwaye bathembele kwixesha elizayo, kwaye izikhundla ezimfutshane ziphantse zanyamalala ngokupheleleyo. (Imizobo ibonelele ngemihla ngemihla.)
Ngenxa yoko, uxinzelelo lwemali eyinkunzi kwizabelo zafikelela kwinqanaba lerekhodi.
Kwaye uqwalasele ubungakanani obukhulu bokuphambuka kwentengiso ukusuka kulindelwe ixesha elide, abatyali-mali banokudana kwakhona. Kwaye asikuthandi ukulungelelaniswa kwexesha elide ngoqikelelo lweentengiso.
Njengoko kuphawuliwe kwelinye lamanqaku ethu, olona nxibelelwano lubalulekileyo lwexabiso lezabelo kunye nokubuya kwixesha elizayo kutyalo-mali kusekwe kwiimvavanyo.
Yintoni Elindelwe Ngo-2021?
Okwangoku, abahlalutyi bangxamile ukumisela eyona nto iphambili kwi-S & P 500 kunyaka olandelayo.
Ngaba imilinganiselo yabo ichanekile? Yonke into iza kuncitshiswa ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho kwaye, ekugqibeleni, inzuzo yecandelo le-mashishini inokufumana imakethi egqithisileyo. Amaxesha amabini okugqibela xa uqikelelo lweentengiso belukhuni kwinzuzo, isiphumo sasingeyona nto ibalaseleyo.
Sichitha ngokuthe ngqo kubatyali mali abatya kakhulu kwimakethi yesitokhwe kwiimeko zoqoqosho olubuthathaka (olunika umvuzo ophakathi).
Isalathisi sibonisa ukuba "ukwahlulwa" kweemarike ezivela kuqoqosho kukhokelela ekuguqukeni. Unxibelelwano lubonakala ngakumbi ukuba ujonge kwimakethi kwimeko yolwalamano lwenzuzo kwi-GDP. Xa ubhekisa kwiipesenti ezingama-90, abatyali-mali akufuneki baphinde balahle oku kuphambuka.
Unxibelelwano olunjalo alulindelanga, kuba iinzuzo zenkampani zingumsebenzi wokukhula koqoqosho. Ngokufanayo, intshukumo yabo ye-counter akufuneki imangaliswe. Kwaye asikho nje malunga nemali yentengiso ngokunxulumene ne-GDP, kodwa malunga nalo lonke amanyathelo ovavanyo ngaxeshanye.
7 Imithetho yezorhwebo
Ke, i-2020 yaye yagcwele imicimbi engalindelekanga kunaleyo inokucinga. Kwaye njengoko indlela yendlela ye-2021, iya kuba sengqiqweni ukulungiselela imeko efanayo. Oku kuya kunceda imigaqo-7:
1) Hlukana nee-asethi ezingenamsebenzi kunye noxwebhu lube nenzuzo: Ivakala ngokulula, kodwa umtyali-mali oqhelekileyo unomdla wokuthengisa izabelo ezize nethemba lokujika.
2) Thenga kwi-minima, thengisa eMaxima: Ixabiso elibizayo aliboneleli ngexabiso elikhethekileyo. Sukuzithethelela okugqithisileyo kutyalo-mali, kuba inzuzo iya kubandezeleka.
3) Musa ukuba nethemba lokuba ngeli xesha yonke yonke into iya kwahluka: umntu uhlala ethanda ukuba nethemba elifanelekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, khumbula ukuba, nangona ibali aliphindi "igama elithi", iimeko zihlala zifana.
4) Yiba nomonde kwaye ungakhawulezi ukutyala imali. Akukho nto yayithatyathwa kwindawo yokuhlala "kwimali" de ithuba elifanelekileyo lokutyalomali liyavela. Umonde yindlela entle yokuzikhusela engxakini.
I-5) cima umabonwakude. Ekuphela kwento oza kuyiphumeza, ukubeka esweni iMiboniso yeTV-olu luhlu lwegazi.
I-6) umngcipheko awulingani nenzuzo. Uvakalisa ilahleko enokubakho kwimeko yokuncamathisela. Inkqubo yolondolozo iyakonyusa imali kwi-capital ende ngomngcipheko omncinci.
7) Unganikezeli kwi-pird ngokukhawuleza. Xa wonke umntu evumelana nolwalathiso lwentengiso ngenxa yeseti ethile, kufanelekile ukuba silungiswe izinto ezingafakwanga. Le thesis ihambelana ne-2 kunye ne-4 yokuthenga into ephantsi okanye ithengiswe, uthenga kwintengiso kwaye uthengise kwizigaba zokukhula okungenakuphikiswa.
Shwankathela
Imakethi ifikelele kakhulu kwindlela eyahlukeneyo yezikhombisi. Inqanaba letyala lasemazantsi libuyiselwe kwiinqobo zokuziphatha, izitokhwe zithengiswa kwi-maxima, kunye nesivuno sokuphindaphinda ithontsi kwi-minima, kodwa amajelo eendaba aqhubeka nokunyanzelisa ukuba akukho zizathu zenkxalabo.
Ewe kunjalo, oku akufuneki kwemangalise. Kwincopho yentengiso, wonke umntu uphumelela ukuba abe kwi-harness enye.
"Eyona ngxaki iphambili yomtyali mali (kwaye notshaba olubi kakhulu) lunokuba nguBhenjamin Graham.
Ngokufanelekileyo usizisa kwimigaqo ebalulekileyo.
Utyalomali alulukhuphiswano
. Abaphumeleleyo abalindeli umvuzo, ngelixa isohlwayo selahleko siya kuba sinzulu kakhulu. Gcina iimvakalelo ziphantsi kolawulo. Njengomthetho, iya kuba yinzuzo ngakumbi ukuba iphikisane ne "iimvakalelo" zakho. Iindawo kwiphothifoliyo yexesha elide zifanelwe kuphela kwezo asethi kuphela ezivelisa umvuzo. Uqikelelo lweentengiso (ngaphandle kwamagama abo agqithisileyo) akufuneki kuthathelwe ingqalelo njengento yokukhetha intengiselwano. Izinto ezisisiseko kunye noqoqosho kufuneka zimisele izigqibo zotyalo mali lwexesha elide, ngelixa "kwabawa kunye noloyiko" linoxanduva lwexesha elifutshane. Kubalulekile ukuba uthathe isigqibo sokuba loluphi uhlobo lwabatyali mali abaphatha ngokobuqu. Ukukhetha ixesha elifanelekileyo lentengiselwano akunakwenzeka. Kodwa ulawulo lomngcipheko lunokwenzeka. Uqeqesho nomonde - isitshixo sempumelelo. Ukungabikho kwezi mpawu kuya kuchaphazela kakubi imali. Imvelaphi yeendaba iyonke yenzakalisa utyalomali. Cima i-tv kunye nokutsala iiseli ze-nervous. Ukutyala kuyafana nomdlalo wokungcakaza. Kuzo zombini iimeko, kukho kuphela amathuba okuba ziziganeko zexesha elizayo ezisekwe kwizibalo. Kubalulekile ukwazi ukuba kufanelekile "ukuthisi", kwaye xa uqhubeka nayo yonke into. Isicwangciso esiliqili sokutyala indalo iphela alikho. Iqhinga kukwazi umahluko phakathi kwesicwangciso esibi sokutyala imali kunye nesicwangciso esingasebenzi kuphela okwethutyana.
Isifundo seSifundo se-2020?
"Iziganeko ezingalindelekanga zenzeka rhoqo kunokuba bekucingelwa."