Imakethi izama ukubuyela kwakhona emva kwe "Trenzeris" ekupheleni kweveki ephelileyo, ephembelela zonke iiklasi zempahla. Unethemba kakhulu ukuba ulawulo lwejika elivulekileyo ukuxhasa ukuthengisa ii-asethi akunakuphepheka. I-ECB sele iqhelisela ukukhula kokuhlawula i-raulsion, kwaye i-rba iye yandisa ukuthengwa kweebhondi ezinde. Ngaba kufanelekile ukuba lilinde ukuba iUnited States ilandele? Ekugqibeleni - ewe, kodwa uza kuba nini?
Iintlantsi zentengiso eziphambili: Ukukhula kwedola kunokubangela ukuba ixabiseke
NgoLwesihlanu, ndichaza ngokweenkcukacha iindlela zokungeniswa kolawulo lwe-Federal yejika le-culve. Ukuqukumbela ngokubanzi kukuba iFodrev ayifuni kwenza le nyathelo le-radical, ukuba alinyanzeli imakethi - nokuba kukuwa kwakhe, okanye ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala, inyanzela ithemba lezakhiwo kunye nemakethi yabasebenzi . La mathemba akulula kakhulu ukuyonakalisa, anikwe amaxabiso akhawulezayo yokugonywa, ukuvumela ukuba uvule uqoqosho, kwaye iphakheji elindelekileyo yemilinganiselo ye-1.9 yeedola (ibonakala incitshisiwe ngaphandle kokuphakamisa umvuzo omncinci). Iparade yentetho yabameli abadliwe kule veki kufuneka asinike umbono ukuba kukho imbono yobuqili kwiveki ephelileyo apho amalungu eBhunga anoloyila khona.
Kutheni le nto i-USD iwa kwaye inamandla?
Ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kwentengiso ekuqaleni kwale veki (kwaye kwangaxeshanye) kunokuba kukuqhubeka kovuyo lokubuya kwangoLwesihlanu lwentengiso ye-US ye-US ngolwesine. Iphepha elineminyaka emibini ubudala libuyele ngokupheleleyo kwinqanaba lomgangatho wedolophu, kunye neminyaka emihlanu ubudala iphumelele i-tidyway emva. Kodwa ukuba i-splash yembumbulu iphantse icinyiwe kwaye ngamafutshane, kwaye kwimide ende yejika, kutheni bengazange babuye kunye nedola yaseMelika?
Mhlawumbi isitshixo sempendulo kutshintsho lokuziphatha kwezinye iiBhanki eziphambili lihambelana ne-ECB ekupheleni kweveki ephelileyo yenze isilumkiso malunga ne-Eurozone, kunye ne-Reser Bank ye-Australia Ukubhengeza olu busuku ukuze uthandabuze isantya sokuthenga iibhondi zexesha elide. Kukho umbono wokuba kufuneka silindele amanyathelo afanayo nakwabanye abalawuli. Mhlawumbi yonke le nto inxulumene nobunzima be-USD-Siyasikhumbuza ukuba i-fed ayisebenzi kwi-vacuum. Kwangelo xesha, inyathelo elinye le-rba linokunxulunyaniswa kungekuphela nje ngokukhulisa, kodwa kunye nokunyuka okukhawulezayo kwi-Austral Deadrar Iveki yeveki ephelileyo ukusukela ngo-2018, nangona kulandelwa uqeqesho olulandelayo. Namhlanje iBhanki iya kudibana entlanganisweni; Eyona nto ibalulekileyo, kwingxelo yakhe, uya kuvakalisa inkxalabo ngezizathu zozibini.
Kodwa eyona nto iphambili kwiveki ephelileyo yemakethi yemali kukubetha kakhulu kwendlela yokunciphisa i-USD: ngababini njengabaphindwe kabini kubonakala ngathi isoyikisa ngamakhandlela evekini (jonga ngezantsi). Imeko eqhelekileyo ekunciphiseni i-USD ihlupheka nangakumbi ukuba isibini se-Eurusdd sihamba siye esihlathini se-1.2000 kwaye sibuyela kuluhlu lwe-1.1600-1.1900. Kule meko, abarhwebi badlala ukuhla kwe-USD, ubuncinci kwiiveki ezimbalwa kuya kufuneka balinde de ade eUnited States okanye abuyele kwixabiso eliphezulu kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso) Buyisa ijika. Nangona kunjalo, ndiyakrokrela ukuba ngenxa yoko, ukungeniswa kwe-CCD kuya kufuneka kulinde ixesha elide, kwintlekele ethile emarikeni.
Ngeli xesha, ukomeleza i-USD kuya kuba yingozi kumaxabiso kwiimarike zehlabathi ukuba imali iya kukhula ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezimbalwa.
Ishedyuli: uphindwe iiveki
Phantse i-cantiltrophic i-stollsrophic ezantsi kwi-Audsusd's ngoLwesine kwaye ngakumbi ngolwesiHlanu wenziwe i-Candle ebizelweyo Ithemba elikukuphela kwe "Bokov" - ukuba olu tshintsho lwalucaphukiswa yimiphumo yokuphela kwenyanga, eyayithandeka kakhulu kwiDollar yase-Australia, kunye nokuphelisa ilahleko ye-RBA ephambi kwentlanganiso yanamhlanje. Ukuphanga ngokukhawuleza umngcipheko wokwehla, uyakufuna ngokukhawuleza ukuvala ngokukhawuleza kunye nokuvalwa ngaphezulu kwe-0.7900; Ngaphandle koko, ukubuyela umva kunokuba yivila ubuncinci ubuncinci boluhlu lwe-0.7565 kwaye nkqu nakwinqanaba eliphezulu le-0.7415 (siqaphela ukuba sinenqanaba eliphambili le-FIBOCCCCI - i-0,7380 ). Siphawula ukwehla kwesalathiso se-China: Isalathiso esisesikweni somsebenzi weshishini se-PMI kwimveliso ikwinqaku le-50.6, elilingana ubuncinci ukusuka ekuqaleni kwe-pandemic, njengakwindawo engeyiyo eyakho (51.4).
Umthombo: Iqela leSaxo
Iziganeko eziphambili ezizayo zekhalenda yezoqoqosho (ixesha lazo zonke izinto zibonakalisiwe yiGreenwich):
- 00:30 - Ukwaziswa rates okujoliswe kuko imali Australian Reserve Bank kunye nenzuzo ekujoliswe iibhondi seminyaka emithathu-
U-John Hardy, ophambili ka-SAXO Bank
Funda amanqaku asekuqaleni: