Nge-11 kaFebruwari, ibandla labantu abangatshatanga lenzeka. Iforum yayikukubonelela ngengxoxo nabantu ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yengxaki yezopolitiko kwaye ichaza imikhombandlela yohlengahlengiso eyimfuneko ukoyisa kwayo. Ngokukodwa, iMoscow yamgqala njengenxalenye yenkqubo ye-MSCK kutshintsho kuMgaqo-siseko. Ekugqibeleni, abathathi-nxaxheba be-VNS kunye nendlela ulingeneyo kwikhondo lakhe eliza kuchaphazela umgaqo-nkqubo waseBelasus, uMlawuli weZiko loLuntu lokufunda umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle kunye nokhuseleko, umphengululi, imbali ye-Academy yeSayensi yeSayensi , Desis Bukonkin.
Kuthekani kwi-VNS
Nge-12 kaFebruwari, iNdibano yaBantu baBantu baseBelarusia (i-VNS) yagqitywa, eyabhengezwa ngabasemagunyeni eBelasus njengeforum enkulu yomeliso lwabantu kule minyaka mi-5 idlulileyo. Le foram iqokelele inani elikhulu kakhulu labathunywa abavela kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zelizwe. Kodwa inkqubo yokhetho ngokwayo iphakamisa ukuba lo msitho wakhethwa kwisininzi samandla athembekileyo abantu.Iforum ngokwayo yayijolise ekuxoxeni ngamanyathelo kunye neziphakamiso ze-MSKK, ethi ukuqala komnyhadala ayizange isilele ukukhankanya uAsalam weRiphabhlikhi waseBhululus Alexander Loka. Kule meko, eyona inomdla kwaye inolwazi yayithetha ngo-ntetho yabameli borhulumente wangoku.
Ngelishwa, ngexesha le-VNS, idramo oyilwayo womgaqo-siseko eceliswe ngabasemagunyeni ayingeniswa kubasemagunyeni, ekufuneka ibe yinto ekhethiweyo yevoti kwi-Preferendum. I-Lukashenko incinci ngexesha lenkcazo-ntetho esiya kwisithembiso sokuzisa amandla kwakhona kwaye silungiselele uguqulelo loMgaqo-siseko kude kube sekupheleni koMthetho ophambili welizwe oya kuba nakho ngaphambili Kwangoko bengama-2022, emva koko, ukuba iyahambelana nonyulo lwasekhaya ngoJanuwari. Kwangelo xesha, uMongameli waxelelwa ukuba uBelarus wayesahlala kwiRiphabliki yaseMongameli. Kwangelo xesha, kulindeleke ukuba kube sisicelo sokubamba inqanaba lomgaqo-siseko we-VNS njengeyona ndlela iphambili yokumelwa kwesizwe. Kodwa lo mnqweno weendwendwe zeCongress uza kuhlala unqwenela de iihekti ezifanelekileyo zingeniswe kwihlelo likaMgaqo-siseko.
Ke, eyona nto inomdla kwaye inolwazi yayingumongameli, umlungiseleli wase-Vladimir Dadimir Deya, iintloko zeKGB Ivan Calculator. Ukongeza, kukho indawo kunye nentetho engalindelekanga ngu-Anna Kanopatkaya, ongakhange ubandakanywe kusasazo olusemthethweni.
Ukuhamba kwamandla kunye ne-vector eyahlukeneyo
Ukusuka kwintetho kaMongameli, bekunokwenzeka ukuba kwazi ukuba uhambo lwamandla eBelarus lusenokwenzeka. Kwangelo xesha, enye yeemeko zayo iya kuba sisibonelelo sabaxhasi seLukashenko kwimeko yokuba ezinye izinto ezopolitiko ziza namandla. Ngokwahlukileyo, intloko yelizwe igxile kulondolozo lwemigaqo-nkqubo yeBelausia, ethi, nangona kunjalo, itshintshiwe.
Ke, kwaqatshelwa ukuba abantu baseBelarus 'bakulungele ukwakha ubudlelwane nawo onke amazwe kunye nemibutho yabasebenzi ngokwemigaqo yokulingana, ukuhloniphana, ukungaphazanyiswa kwimicimbi yangaphakathi. " Ngokutsho kukaMongameli, banomdla kwi "Banobahluka ngokulinganayo nehlabathi elingaphandle, okokuqala kwezoqoqosho." Kwangelo xesha, ubudlelwane kunye ne-European Union zibalulekile, oyena mda mde "wawona mda mde kunye nenqanaba eliphezulu loqoqosho, ezentlalo, inkcubeko kunye nezopolitiko". I-verilolmart encinci ye-Belarusian I-Ealarusian I-Ealasusia lilizwe elibizwa ngokuba "yi-ARC elide", apho indawo ebalulekileyo "yindawo ebalulekileyo", ngaphandle kweJografi, kwaye inobuhlobo "i-china. Kwangelo xesha, iqabane eliphambili kwezoqoqosho kunye nesicwangciso-qhinga "yayingu" Russia.
Imibuzo yokudityaniswa
Ubudlelwane neRussia bezinikezelwa ngokubanzi kwinxalenye eyahlukileyo yentetho kaLukashenko. Ngokukodwa, ukubaluleka kwesicwangciso sobudlelwane beBelaus-Russia kuwo wonke lo mmandla, ulondolozo lozinzo noxolo kulo. Kuboniswa ukuba i-Belarsus ixhume kwaye iyakwenzela ukudityaniswa kwezoqoqosho kwindawo yasemva kwesobuvitha kwi-Bilatal nakwifomathi ye-Multilateral.Kwangelo xesha, kwakuqatshelwa ukuba imanyano yaseBelarus neRussia kwintsebenziswano kwi-EEUU kunye ne-CIS isahlulwa ngokudibeneyo kunye nezinye iindawo, kubandakanya ukuzikhusela. Kwaye ngoku ngokutsho kophando lwezemizi-lentweni lwamva nje lobuhlobo, ngaphezulu kwe-70% yamaBelaus ahlanganisiweyo neRussia.
Kwangelo xesha, kugxininiswa ukuba amalungu e-organs adalwe ngaphakathi kwesakhelo sikarhulumente engekayifumani indawo yabo, kwaye ngenxa yoko basekuqaleni bathethe ngotshintsho lwabo.
Kwingxelo yakhe, intloko yelizwe echaphazele umxholo wezoqoqosho kwi-EEEU, ukuba ingabaluleka kokufezekisa ukusebenza kwemakethi eqhelekileyo. Kwimicimbi yeBelasus-ukudalwa kweManyano yezoqoqosho epheleleyo kwiNkqubo-sikhokelo ye-EEEU: "Kuyimfuneko ukuphucula ukusebenza kwempumelelo kolwakhiwo lwe-Eurasia, kubaluleke kakhulu ukufezekisa i-A Imakethi eqhelekileyo kunye nokudibanisa amaxabiso ezoqoqosho amaqela. Emva koko i-EEEU iya kuba nomtsalane ngakumbi kwamanye amaqabane, kwaye hayi kuphela kwindawo yasemva kwesoviwa. " Kwakunjalo ngenxa yokuba uCwangciso lweBelaussion we-EAP wayejolise kwi-2020, kwaye lo mgca wenzelwe ukuqhubeka kwixesha elizayo.
Ngokuphathelele i-Commonwealth yamagama azimeleyo, ke, ngokwentloko-rhulumente, ngaphandle kobunzima benjongo, igcina ihambelana nokuhambelana njengombutho wengingqi. "Eyona nto iphambili eBelarus kwi-Commonwealth ihlala ingaguqukanga - ukuphuhlisa ubudlelwane njengendlela yeyona nto iphambili kunxibelelwano olunenzuzo kakhulu," utshilo uLukashenko. UCWANGCISO LWE-Belarus eBelarus kwi-CIs lithunyelwa ekufezekiseni le njongo ngo-2021
Ngokutsho kukaMongameli, umkhosi kunye nentsebenziswano yobugcisa bezobugcisa neRussia kunye nezinye ilizwe le-CSTO ziya kuqhubeka. Kwangelo xesha, i-MSCK yaseburhulumenteni iya komeleza amandla okuzikhusela ilizwe kwingingqi yeMkhosi yaseMpuma Yurophu.
I-Lukashenko yagxininisa ukuba ePoland, amazwe amaBaltic ngokusisigxina ngamandla eNaTO yeZizwe ngezizwe ngezizwe, kukho ukuziqhelanisa nemikhosi ye-NAO, kukho imisebenzi yasemkhosini yokuphuhliswa kwabakwamanye amazwe kwiYurophu yaseMelika eYurophu ukuya eYurophu. Kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo ePoland kwada kwaqhubelwa yimithambo yasebusika, ngexesha lemfazwe yeNato ye-Nako kunye neqela lemimandla lemimandla yaseRussia noBelathu badityaniswa kwiikhompyuter.
"Ukusebenzisa ezi mfundiso kwaye loo mboleko, ezazivuthiwe ePoland, zikhuthaza ulwabiwo longeziweyo lokuphuhlisa umkhosi wabo ePoland nase-Nako," yatsho inkokeli yaseBelarusia. Njengempendulo, umthambo odibeneyo "West 2021" ziqwalaselwa. Yazisa utshintsho kumxholo wokhuseleko lwelizwe.
Ukuthumela kwelinye ilizwe kunye nokugqogqa
Inkcazo yeNtloko yeTentelo yaNgaba uCaseya, eyathi iphakamisa ukususa isibonelelo somnqweno wokungathathi cala kumgaqo-siseko, awuzange unomdla. Oku kuthetha ukwala inani lamanyathelo ekufuneka aguqule u-Belarus kwi-Austria yaseMpuma yaseYurophu yase-Austria, eSwitzerland okanye eFinland. UMphathiswa uyakholelwa ukuba kwiimeko zanamhlanje ezicetyiswayo ukuba zitshintshe ifomula yokuthumela ngaphandle ngoko nakwesithathu, isithathu, xa izinto zesithathu ziwela eRussia nakwiindawo ze-European, amazwe ase-right. Ngokoluvo lwayo, kuyafuneka ukugxila kwisiqingatha sentengiso yokuthumela ngaphandle kwiimarike ze-EEEU, kwaye isiqingatha esisele sahlulwa ngokulinganayo phakathi kwe-EU kunye namazwe asekude kakhulu. Kwangelo xesha, iMakay ixhasa ukugcinwa komgangatho wamaninzi njengesiseko somgaqo-nkqubo welizwe langaphandle.
Ngokwahlukileyo, kubalulekile ukuba uguqukele kwintetho yomfowuneli, nto leyo njengoko intloko yeenkonzo eziphambili zelizwe zabhengeza ubukho beqela labanqolobi elijolise ekuqhubeni inani lezabelo kwi-Belarus. Ke, kungekudala kusondele ukuba kunokulindelwa ukuba amatyala amatsha aya kuqaliswa ngokuchasene nabaqhankqalazi kwizityholo ezinzulu. Kuyenzeka ukuba lo msebenzi uya kupholisa uthuli lwabantu azokubuyela kwimisebenzi yoqhanqalazo kwintwasahlobo ye-2021 kwangaxeshanye, enikwe umsebenzi weziteshi ezininzi, kunokwenzeka ukuba esi sicelo siza kusetyenziswa njenge Ishishini lolwazi lokukhuthaza ulwazi malunga ne "PlyWhel Resoctions" kunye nemfuno yokunganyangeki.
Ukudlala kwabanye abathunywa kunye nezigqibo
Phakathi kweentetho zabanye abathunywa, isibheno sika-Yuri Veskresensky batsala umdla ngaphandle kwemeko. Wayelindele ukuba axole kubo bonke amabanjwa ezopolitiko aguqukayo. Nangona kunjalo, inyani yenguquko, ngokucacileyo, ibonisa ukuba uMongameli ngesicelo sokuxolelwa, kunye nokuvalwa kwemisebenzi yezopolitiko kweli lizwe. Ukongeza, kucetywa ukuba kutize esinye sezikwere ekuzukisweni kweRussia, ngaloo ndlela kucetyiswa igalelo labo ekugcinweni nasekugcinweni kwe-belarus.
Kubo bonke abathunywa, abathunywa babengengomphumo, kwaye banobuntu ngokunxulumene namandla akhoyo kwaye bagxile kwimicimbi yesigqibo esenziwe ngaso, okanye uluvo lwesithethi alugqithisi kakhulu kwigosa isikhundla.
Le iseyingozi enkulu kwi-MNSK yaseburhulumenteni, njengoko oku kunokuba nembono yokunqongophala kwezikhundla ezibi kakhulu kumcimbi omnye okanye eminye imicimbi, okanye ukungathandani koluntu ngokubhekisele kwinkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo wangoku. Okwangoku, iipoli ezininzi, ngokuchaseneyo, bonisa ukwahlulwa okubalulekileyo koluntu kunye nokugalelwa kwayo. Ubungqina boku bakhonza, kubandakanya into yokuba, ngokutsho kophando oluyalelwe kwi-VNS, ngaphantsi kwesiqingatha sabemi baxhasa inyathelo lomongameli ukuba anike intlanganiso yesimo somgaqo-siseko.
Ukungabikho kwengxoxo enkulu kunye nempikiswano inokwenza into ethambisayo kumandla, kodwa ayibonakali imeko yokwenyani yengxaki ethile yoluntu lwaseBelarusia. Ngokubanzi, i-VNS izalisekisile umsebenzi wayo kwaye yaba luhlobo lokuphendula kwizenzo zenkcaso. Kungenxa yoko le nto, ngokucacileyo, i-EU ihlawulwe ngokusesikweni ukuba akayigqali intlanganiso njengequmrhu elisemthethweni kwaye izisombululo zalo azinawo amandla asemthethweni kunye nokugwetywa.
Kwelinye icala, ukusonjululwa kwe-AKS akukanyanzelekanga ukuba ubulawe, kwaye intlanganiso ngokwayo ayinayo imeko yomgaqo-siseko okwangoku. Ke ngoko, ukulindela ukuba utshintsho oluqhelekileyo kwiziphumo luza kuba luyinto enkulu kakhulu.
I-Denis Bonkin, umphandi weziko lembali yeSayensi yeSayensi ye-Belasus, UMlawuli weZiko loRhulumente "loMgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle kunye noKhuseleko"