The film Navalny about Putin's Palace itself cannot change the political situation in Russia overnight. Still, it is more difficult, it is associated with public preferences: That is, a person can watch the movie Navalny, and then say "Well, yes, of course, the truth says, but at the same time he is a foreign agent" or "Well, yes, of course, he truth says And it will be the same when comes to power. " Thus, his curiosity will not affect the current political process, the Navalny rating will not increase due to such a person.
But if we talk about more long-term processes, the film is an event, very significant, because in fact we are talking about delegate, deactivation of power. This is a longer process, this is not due to what will be today, how many people on this weekend will go outside, how many people came to the airport to meet Navalny, what a rating will be. This is due to longer-term things. Will it appear in the parliamentary elections of 2021? It is possible because the politicization will increase by that time, as it increases during any election campaign.
You can already say that the impact of "smart voting" is very large at least in large cities, there is a result of elections in the Moscow City Duma in 2019 for example. The current story can increase attention to this idea. Russia is a large country and very different, somewhere there is no desire to listen to recommendations, somewhere there. And there is an interesting point: Traditionally, for Democrats and Liberals, there was a limiter, for example, that it is impossible to vote for the Communists, it is impossible to vote for a person who relates well to Stalin. Now, with a "smart vote", this limiter is removed, and the Democrats voted for the Communists, not particularly thinking about how they relate to the events of history, to one or another figures. If we leave the megalopolis a little away, the electoral culture is different, people are not oriented there on recommendations from the Internet.
I do not think that the supporters of Navalny will be admitted to participate in these elections as candidates, but no one can prohibit them to express their opinion, there will be an attempt to launch a "smart vote" again, it will be hampered through the restriction of agitation on the Internet. In general, political risks for the authorities may already appear for the elections of 2021.