Last week, the tax period was completed, when usually large exporters increase the sale of monetary revenues to calculate the budget. But this did not provide special support to the ruble, perhaps only a little resolved the fall of the Russian currency.
The intraday trading volatility was very high, which is often a precursor of the change of trend. At the same time, the pair of dollar-ruble did not even try to try strong support for strength 73, in spite of the tax period, nor record oil prices for oil.
In general, it seems that exporters are in no hurry to return currency revenue to the country, and its size has grown much recently, both due to sharply increasing oil and gas and metals. This suggests that companies are awaiting the ruble.
No new internal risks for the Russian currency appeared, except, perhaps, well-founded concerns about the growth of internal inflation. Traders have already forgotten about sanction risks, at least from the European Union, since the expected measures will only concern the narrow circle of officials.
True, the threats from the American president Joe Bayiden, who laid the blame for hacker attacks to Russia, but so far the specific steps of his administration are unknown.
All negative for the ruble factors come from outside. First of all, this is a general deterioration in investment sentiment expressed in the sale of absolutely all risky assets: shares, bitcoin, raw materials and even American government bonds, as well as gold.
This will inevitably lead to the exit of foreign investors from ruble assets: the trend slowly began to manifest itself. According to EPFR Global, a week from February 18 to 24, a clean balance of capital inflows in Russian shares and bonds from Western funds declined to $ 50 million from $ 160 million a week earlier.
The ratio of non-residents to ruble assets can continue to deteriorate in the event of the development of oil price correction. Large capital is still assessed by the Russian economy through the prism of petroleum prices. At the same time, it is not necessary to think that if earlier the ruble did not play the rise of the take-off of "Black Gold", he will also ignore his fall.
With a high probability, you can expect that this week a pair of dollar-ruble will begin to test the resistance of 74.7 for strength. In the case of his breaking through the following purpose of the devaluation of the Russian currency will be the area 76.
In the near future, the days of the abnormal strengthening of the ruble are not excluded. The fact is that Norilsk Nickel needs to be paid with the state for the damage from the filling of petroleum products in spring last year. The amount of payments is about $ 2 billion, and a significant part of ruble funds will be obtained by converting currency.
Dynamics Couples Dollar Ruble, Day Candles
Boris Soloviev, financial analyst