In independence, what decision will receive the Central Bank of Russia relative to the key rate, it will affect the course of the ruble, according to the Moscow Komsomolets.
If the key rate is reduced, then this, according to experts, does not stop the growth of inflation. The preservation of the rate will lead to a neutral situation, with both large companies, and ordinary depositors will not be able to obtain a detailed information about the most profitable investment instruments. The rate of raising will lead to a drop in the course, which means that the process of flight of capital from Russia will continue.
Any decision of the Central Bank will be a sentenceThe regulator was last changed the key bet at the end of July 2020 - then it was lowered by 0.25% to 4.25%. At the next three meetings of the directors' regulator corps, the rate was saved. Analysts believe that at the next meeting of the increase or decline in the rate will not occur.
SMART Creative Solutions Group The co-founder Anton Emelyanov is confident that the current market situation does not have a change in this indicator.
"Everyone was expelled to reduce the key rate, since the inflation rate in January exceeded 5%, and February, the Bank of Russia was estimated that peak marks were reached. On the other hand, now rates on deposits are negative, "the expert argues.A positive point, according to him, is the fact that oil prices reached an annual maximum - $ 60 per barrel. However, Emelyanov notes that this is not enough for the Russian economy to show growth. This is against the background of the fact that the authorities continue to implement infrastructure projects requiring injections from the federal budget.
The analyst also warned that soon market investors will cease to pay increased attention to the decisions of the Bank of Russia. According to him, it should be understood that the key bet is one of the tools for controlling the financial situation in the country. Meanwhile, specifically for inflation, the ruble exchange rate and the amount of deposits, its minor changes will not seriously affect, I am sure Emelyanov.
"Each bank will define the price policy, based on its own position on liquidity, - the OTD Bank expert is warned by Maria Pushkareva.According to its forecasts, changing the key rate in the second quarter will depend, rather, from geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. Pushkarev noted, whatever decision received the Central Bank relative to the key bet, not to avoid complaints.
"Reducing the rate and acceleration inflation to 5.2% will be a certain shock for the position of the ruble in the domestic currency market, can push the dollar and euros courses to new maxima, and will not necessarily reduce the interest rates on deposits," - warned the Chairman of the PDA Board " Update »Mikhail Dorofeyev.