The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia Today, for the first time since December 2018, decided to increase the key bet - by 0.25%, to 4.5%. At the same time, the Central Bank allows for further enhancement of a key rate at the nearest meetings.
According to the economists surveyed by us, such a decision does not correspond to market expectations. Most experts believed that the regulator would retain the largest key rate in the history of Russia until the end of 2021 and will not tighten the monetary policy.
"Since the beginning of 2020, high inflation growth rates are preserved in Russia - above 0.2% per week (inflation for March 15 amounted to 5.8% per annum), but there is no consensus than the observed sustainable high rates are caused. In something similar situation has already been observed in 2018-2020, when from June 2018 under the influence of a number of factors (weakening of the ruble, the growth of VAT, the rise in prices for seasonal goods) inflation broke up from 2.3% to peak 5.3% per annum in March 2019. However, by February 2020, inflation again dropped to 2.3% per annum. The tightening of monetary policy at the end of 2018-2019 and the growth of key rates from 7.25% to 7.75% were then temporary, and in mid-2019, the rate decline was resumed, "Maxim Petronevich comments, the Senior Economist of Analytical Management "Opening Research" Bank "Opening".
However, according to the expert, it was among other factors a negative impact on GDP and investment growth in 2019. Now, analysts are celebrated, the situation risks to repeat - loans service will be more expensive, including at home.
"As a rule, with increasing key rates, mortgage lending also begins to rise. Now this is not a big problem, but in the future, when the program of the preferential mortgage will be completed in a number of regions, which is now most transactions, it will lead to a more serious reduction in demand than previously expected. There is only one positive moment for buyers in this situation - prices will not be actively growing now, "notes Denis Bobkov, General Director of the Analytical and Consulting Company" Real Estate Profi ".
"The key rate is certainly a major factor affecting interest rates both on loans and deposits. But it does not have direct dependence, for example: increased the key rate by 0.25% and immediately increased rates on all products by 0.25% from the next day. Banks in accordance with their strategy are considering various options and calculate the economy, the change in rates is possible, but as far as they increase and when each bank decides individually, "Tatyana Khobothova added, the territorial manager for working with the partner of the Opening bank" Opening ".
"What happened and now almost the inevitable future growth of the key bet will be transformed into the growth rate on the deposits of the population, primarily the most popular urgency: from six months to a year and a little over a year. Credit rates for the population can be affected to a lesser extent. Mortgage rates are still "borrowed" to the existing state program of the preferential mortgage. Credit rates without collateral can not significantly change, since a lesser extent is determined by the value of bank funding, and to a greater extent - allowance for risk. These surcharges are against the background of the expected growth of the economy, incomes of the population and reducing unemployment - should be reduced, "Maxim Petronevich believes.
