Forex.
The dollar correction continues to develop, the new factor of the dollar support was the growth of the volatility of the American stock market due to a number of high-profile "short squans". A new factor has manifested itself - a network organization of small investors, which are combined into large groups for attacking the short positions of hedge funds in low-liquid promotions. VIX in recent days is held above 30, which provokes the reduction of leverage in the US market and supports the US dollar. The dollar index again tries to break up 91, in EUR / USD, the downward correction has become more explicit, the couple strive to test 1.2. GBP / USD is fixed below 1.37, prepare for correction. USD / JPY tries to punch up 105.
We believe that this week will clear up whether the dollar will grow further, and if I am ready, then this growth will be accompanied by the long-awaited correction of the American stock market, which, one way or another, hooks all other stock markets.
Against the background of the growth of the volatility of the stock market, Commodities are quite paradoxically enhanced, and the trend is observed both in some precious metals (gold, platinum) and oil. This is associated with the fact that the concept of the beginning of the new commodity cycle is becoming increasingly popular with a mass investor and is accompanied by an increase in inflation expectations. We do not undertake to judge how much these expectations are justified at the time when the risks of Lokdaunov still remain high, but if the idea is captured by the masses, it will simply become for some time "self-fulfilling prophecy". Paradoxical oil growth may happen against the background of falling stock markets. This will affect the dynamics of raw currencies, which may not be very losing to the dollar correction, compared with the main alternative funding currencies. So for the game to enhance the dollar is the most reasonable to choose the main pair - EUR / USD. The goals of the correction, in our opinion, lie in the range of 1.18 ... 1.19. After completion of the correction, we are waiting for the renewal of the dollar to the entire Forex spectrum and the new local minima of the dollar index in the first half of the year.
USD / RUB.
The ruble as part of the general trend risk-off met our hopes for weakening, the level 75 on USD / RUB breaks up, but the confident movement did not follow further. Growing oil supports the ruble. We believe that political risks associated with the mass actions passed in Russia at the weekend are overvalued, and will not support the ruble. Further oil growth, most likely returns USD / RUB within 75 and, more, in the area 73 in case the global risk does not receive further development. If he gets, the weakening of the ruble will continue, but it is unlikely to have a collapse. A well-tested previous last fall range 76 ... 78 will become viscous. But the output above will be accompanied by the acceleration of devaluation.
Stock markets.
VIX Above 30, stock indexes are a bit feverish, and we think that the already moderate correction may develop in a strong movement down, which contributes to a large volume of optional and marginal rates on growth. The objectives of the S & P-500 in the area of 3,600, and NASDAQ in the region of 12,000 have not yet been made. If you are taken, the drop in the fall to fall within 10% will open. RTS, in turn, has already punched down 1400, and aimed at the region of December lows somewhat higher than 1300.
Dmitry Golubovsky analyst FG "Kalita-Finance"
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