In sports, this is called "Surplyas". Cyclists balancing from the starting line - who the first rushes, he will lose.
Officials also stuck activity. The disputes around the extension of the "preferential mortgage" on new buildings under 6.5%, it seemed to come to consensus: in the regions with high demand, it is most likely to cease to decorate from June 1, in depressed - will leave. Powered and legalization of apartments. Now, the Deputy Prime Minister Marat Husnullin promises the appropriate bill "by the end of the year." (I remember, the Deputy Minister of Construction of Nikita Statsishin also promised "by the end of the year" - but passed). The head of the Ministry of Economics Irek Faizullin sluggishly fell away from the reproaches in the fact that the department "made rise in prices" (and how could it not allow?) And all the metallurgists. It is not objected not metallurgists, but the builders themselves: according to the calculations of Pavel Goryachkin, the president of the Union of the Meators, the rise in prices for the valve added to the cost of "square" 1500-2000 rubles. And the square meter in St. Petersburg went up by 23,500 rubles (DataFlat.ru service data), in the sleeping areas - almost 40,000 (calculating analyst Dmitry Zhitkov - see Table 2). What is the fittings here ...
President ordel was "sorting out" with the increase in housing prices, and even gave instructions. But something suggests us that this issue will be smoothly lowered "on the brakes". Even with pasta, and it did not work, and there are smaller producers. Introduce public regulation in construction - a sure and fast way to bring the industry to collapse.
However, the cherished line is to build 120 million square meters. M Housing per year - no one canceled. True, now it was pushed off from the 2024th at the 2030th, but the conditions of the task suggest that the year from the year of housing will build more. In the meantime, it turns out - less.
Federal officials and legislators are trying, as they can: they are offered to legalize the House Bots (floating houses), then the bills of "joining SNT to settlements" are undermined. This initiative will, of course, will allow (on paper) to increase the number of housing. But creating such a regulatory kavarda, that the "dacha amnesty" will seem paradise. Expand the borders of the "family mortgage", spreading preferential rates at home IZhS. Especially this "invitation to debt" is appropriate for large families, in 52% of which the income per person is lower than the level of poverty.
The main question is the capacity of solvent demand. The incomes of citizens fall, despite the spells of Rosstat. Please note: the administration prefers to talk about "wage growth", and not about the "dynamics of real income." The share of "private investors" has sharply increased in the composition of the buyers - those who do not need an apartment as much as it is important to save money from the depreciation. The share of investors among buyers of new buildings at the beginning of the year (before the oil collapse, to the jumps of the exchange rate and pandemic) was 5-7%, at the beginning of the 2021 - from 25 to 40% or more.
Real estate is not the only way of savings, of course. Last year, 5 million (twice!) The number of private investors' brokerage accounts increased in the Moscow Stock Exchange. Over the year, more than 1.8 million individual investment accounts were opened. Turnover over them exceeded 1.4 trillion rubles.
The process continues. In January 2021, 845 billion rubles took from deposits and from current ruble accounts ...
This is the main factor of uncertainty - the canopy "conditionally free money" presses the housing market. How strong will this pressure be? And how long will it last? The first calls rang. Rental rates are decreasing, the payback period of the purchased accommodation housing is growing. Suspending price growth makes speculative transactions (purchases for the purpose of resale). In mid-February, the Central Bank said he did not plan to reduce the key bid; Representatives of large banks spoke about raising rates to deposits ...
Key indicators of the market of St. Petersburg new buildings before the regular period of uncertainty: the proposal by the beginning of 2021 was reduced to 3.1 million square meters. M (at the beginning of 2020 - 4.43 million. The conclusion of new facilities decreased by 30%: 4.1 million in 2019, 3.32 million in 2020. The dynamics of issuing permits for construction also does not console. (cm . Tab. 1).
The housing deficit will not be: developers have a sufficient stock of projects that can be gradually producing to the market. Exactly as much as it is necessary to not drop prices.
"For any growth, the more so high, you should at least a stagnation or, most likely, a decline," Maxim Zhabin warns, deputy. General Director of Lenrusstroy.
"Such the dynamics of price increases in the market, as in 2020, we, of course, are no longer waiting, - I agree Andrei Veresov, General Director of Bronka Development. - First of all, it will be adjusted by a gradual decline in lending volumes "...
Looks like a leading pace will develop a little building. According to the company "Petersburg Real Estate", the demand for this format in 2020 increased 63%. The developers responded quickly: a major project in Pushkinsky district announced the holding of the SETL Group, a low-storey complex in Strelna began to build the company of KVC, the city-villas at the Gatchina Gardens sites actively.
The project manager of the city of Gatchina Gardens Natalya Ostrov is confident that this demand is not a short-term fashion, but a long-term tendency: "Low-rise construction is a step towards improving the quality of life as a whole, of course, subject to the minimum density of development and recreational infrastructure."
So we have no such confidence in the shift of the activity of developers in the zone of Izhs. In the "1st Academy of Real Estate", there is an increase in interest from microdelopers: for example, in the KP "Sosnovsky Gorki", a private developer in February acquired 15 plots at once, in order to bring ready-made home to the market.
But, for example, Dmitry Zyuzin, the head of the T-house GK, calls for caution: "There was a buyer's market. And then suddenly happened on the fence for several months the seller's market. But not long and with the reservation: the demand is filed on objects in good locations and on "old" prices ... "
So the limiters will act in the country zone, first of all - the weak penetration of mortgages (no more than 5% of transactions). And many buyers of IZhS in apartment buildings do not take away.
Decent buyers (especially - with a good credit history) in the market less and less. But for a sure forecasting too many variables.
2017 2018 2019 2020 SPB 241 274 37 49 LO 57 82 20 25Data UGASN in St. Petersburg and the Committee of Gosstroyadzor Lo
Dec 19 Jan. Fevr March April May June July Aug Sep Saint Okt Nov Dec Year,% Center 185 704 188 456 197 272 199 436 204 552 202 728 215 001 214 110 218 504 219 424 18.2 Bedroom. Areas 188 456 119 752 121 090 122 260 124 853 125 068 127 060 128 514 133 028 136 129 141 297 149 659 157 930 33.4 "Far city" 90 328 92 678 93 843 94 029 95 366 96 285 96 902 98 718 98 718 110 667 117 566 119 928 122 425 35.5 Suburbs 91 151 93 138 95 842 95 427 96 982 97 840 98 168 96 278 95 550 100 336 103 953 110 606 109 484 20.1 region 83 139 83 726 84 747 85 148 85 402 86595 87 740 88 475 90 174 91 784 93 924 95 724 96 798 16.4Dmitry Dmitry Zhitkov, IIC "Real Estate Petersburg"
