For the first time since November 11, the operational headquarters reported to reducing the daily number of sick-caps to 19,290 people. The maximum number of infected from the beginning of the pandemic was recorded a month ago, December 24, - then the operstab declared about 29,935 new cases.
According to the chief physician of the Medical Center "Leader-Medicine", the infectiousnessist Evgeny Timakov, the existing incidence statistics does not reflect the true picture, but illustrates the dynamics of the epidemiological process. About 80% of the population of Russia suffered a MAKAID in a light form, many of them did not seek to be shown to doctors not to get to the forced self-insulation, Timakov believes.
The general director of the Dawn private clinic Alexey Paramonov is confident that the peak of increasing growth has been overcame only Moscow. On the same they say the city authorities: the mayor Sergey Sobyanin said that the epidemic in Moscow went to the decline. Over the past day, the gain of the disease amounted to 2382 cases - the last time such numbers were at the end of September.
The rest of Russia overcomes the peak with a lag in 2-4 weeks, believes Paramonov. In his opinion, SARS-COV-2 obeys the same rules as other coronaviruses, in which the peak of morbidity falls at the end of the autumn - the first half of winter.
Paramonov thinks that the seasonality, and the accumulation of immune layers, and the beginning vaccination have affected the reduction of incidence.
For example, from May 18, the Russian Medical Holding "Invitro" conducted over 1.5 million antibody tests to Kovidu and revealed that at the time of testing, immunity had every third Russian. Also fewer people are susceptible to coronavirus, Timakov believes.
People also became more serious about the requirements of Rospotrebnadzor: they comply with mask regime and social distance. The implementation of these measures also plays a significant role, asserts Timakov.
The number of vaccinated Russians is not very long: doctors, teachers, social workers, as well as people who have the risks of severe infection, continued.
According to the Russian Fund of direct investment, over January 9, more than a million Russians were given from Kovid. An independent analyst Alexander Dragan, who analyzed the summary data of regional reports, came to the conclusion that the number of clashed in the regions even as of January 21 is an order of magnitude lower.
However, if vaccination covers a significant part of the population, the virus will be taken under control, says Paramonov: new incidence surges are possible, but not so strong. Timakov agrees with him. Without a vaccine, Russia would see a few more waves, the general director of the clinic "Dawn" believes.
In summer, the Coronavirus situation is fully stabilized, Timakov is sure. It suggests that about 5,000 sicks will be identified daily in the country. "It will already be the remnants of the epidrole, without waves, without overloading the health system," says infectious.
Timakov hopes that the mass vaccination from Kovida will fully be fully created by the end of the summer - by autumn: "By this time, additional data will publish; Everyone will have many acquaintances who are vaccinated; Those who wish to get better. "
Coronavirus, most likely, will remain an annual infection with incidence of incidence in the fall and spring. However, soon this disease will be controlled, summarized the head physician of the Center "Leader-Medicine".