Gennady Salycha, Chairman of the Board of the Bank "Freeda Finance", specifically for Bankiros.ru:
What will affect currency courses in March?
In recent weeks, the dependence of the dynamics of the ruble from oil again intensified, and, apparently, we will observe the smooth strengthening of the Russian currency, which with some delay growing after the quotations of raw materials. The main obstacle to this is the short positions of non-residents, which from the end of January put mainly against the ruble due to the concerns of the sanction war between the EU and the Russian Federation. Oil growth is likely to slow down in March due to the end of the cold, as well as the revival of prey in the United States and in Saudi Arabia. But at the same time, the main debate inside the EU on the situation with the opposition arrests and their supporters in Russia is scheduled for March.What price on the dollar is to prepare?
In the basic scenario, the dollar will weaken the inertia to the ruble, catching up by the increase in oil, which has already occurred. If the barrel holds above 60, and even more than 65, then in the middle of March we will be able to see the dollar 72, by the end of the month - by 70. Accordingly, the euro will strive in the range of 85-87. In scenarios, where sanction risks prevail, or oil will play below 60, the dollar will return to the range of 75-77, and Euro 91-93.
How will the cost of the ruble change in relation to the cost of currencies of other developing countries?If we talk about the most traded currency of developing countries - yuan, then in relation to the ruble, it changes to the same extent as the dollar. The own oscillations of the Chinese currency relative to the US currency are insignificant, since China's People's Bank hard holds a couple in a narrow corridor of values. For the month, it changes within 1%, and if the ruble itself is stable against the dollar, then yuan during this time shows the change in +/- 35 kopecks against the currency of the Russian Federation.
If we take the currencies of other neighboring countries: tenge, hryvnia, the Belarusian ruble, then they are as dependent on the raw material conjuncture abroad, like the Russian ruble, therefore move almost synchronously - unless there is something extraordinary in a particular country, as it was in August in Belarus. Excluding the oscillations of these currencies to the dollar in relation to the ruble, they change within a month by 1-2%, that is, + -70 kopecks without a clearly allocated trend. In other words: in its currency strategy should stick around the basic pair of USD / RUB. If there is a need to be added to the euro or pound portfolio (for expenses, respectively in the EU or WB).
Is it worth buying dollars and euros in March?
With an hour for a year or two, currency can be purchased now. The dollar in relation to the ruble is below its average multi-month values. Under current conditions, a course below 74.3, the purchase of an American currency is justified - if you do not plan to sell it in the coming weeks. However, given the basic forecast for the strengthening of the ruble - there is a high probability that in March it will be possible to buy currency even cheaper - up to 70 per dollar, saving thus to 4,000 rubles from each bought thousand one currency units. With euro, the alignment is similar: the course below 90.4 is already interesting for the purchase for a long term (now the euro is 89.8).
On a shorter horizon (with an eye on the summer-autumn) there is a chance to fix a more profitable course. However, as always, you should make a reservation: it is even better to stock up currency for investment or travel abroad strongly in advance, buying it regularly at the decline, that is, at such moments as now. The average purchase rate last year (if you were purchased a dollar once a month, without giving up in advance) amounted to only 72.2. It is cheaper than the current 74.