VTB commentary on the market of attracted funds after increasing the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Speaker - Maxim Stepochkin, Head of the Department of Saving VTB.
Market trends are still reflected by the current trends of 2020, adjusting the usual seasonality: if deposits in January 2020 demonstrated an increase of 0.25%, then in January 2021, an outflow was recorded in the market of urgent funds by 0.39%; At the same time, relevant funds in January 2020 replaced by 5.86%, and in January 2021 - by 4.83%. As a result, the overall decrease in the liabilities of individuals in January 2021 was 0.54 percentage points. higher than for the same period of 2020. At the same time, we expect the start of the reversal of the market interest in the direction of urgent deposits in rubles, which can lead to a positive pace of extreme liabilities in the 1st quarter of 2021. One of the most important factors for this certainly is the policy of the Central Bank regarding the key rate, therefore today's decision of the regulator was especially expected to the market.
The market was attended by certain expectations to increase the key rate, although it was practically not reflected in the weighted average rate on deposits, which remains at about 4.5%. This level is comfortable, on the one hand, for credit institutions, on the other hand, it remains stable for several months and has become familiar to investors.
In connection with the decision to increase the key rates, we expect individual banks to make adjustments to their savings products. It should be noted that not only the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the key rate, but also a change in the liquidity situation with banks, as well as other macroeconomic factors can affect the yield on products.
For their part, investors, the term of deposits of which ended, in anticipation of raising rates on the market, could temporarily post funds on cumulative accounts. Now, with the emergence of advantageous proposals, funds in demand accounts will again be placed in urgent products. Also, with raising rates on ruble deposits, the trend on the dedollarization of liabilities in the mass segment is activated: in a certain reduction in the cost of the currency, the depositors will prefer to shift the funds into ruble products with fixed income. This trend may also support the opening of borders with a number of foreign countries: part of funds with currency deposits can be used for foreign rest. However, this will affect only the retail segment: the currency portfolios of wealthy customers, according to our forecasts, will remain at the current level as a tool for diversifying savings.