The Central Bank announced the data according to which citizens of the Russian Federation brought more than $ 28 billion from currency accounts last year. The head of the department of analytical research "Higher School of Finance Management" Mikhail Kogan explained what it means, and whether it is worth saving their accumulations.
Why do people take currency from contributions?The expert explained that the statistics of the Bank of Russia on the withdrawal by the population with accounts in banks of 845 billion rubles - a typical phenomenon for the first month of each year. This was preceded by a more noticeable increase in funds by 1.3 trillion in December - the influx of premiums received by citizens.
At the same time, the Kogan clarified that the January decline affected the currency deposits - by $ 0.5 billion after their replenishment was observed in November and December, respectively, by $ 4.6 billion.
"In general, the population does not fail to succumb to the expectations of the weakening of the national currency. The currency structure of bank deposits has practically not changed: on average in 2020, the proportion of ruble deposits was about 79%, which roughly corresponds to the figure for a last year, "the expert explained.He also noted that in absolute terms, the volume of funds in foreign currency in January in annual terms decreased by 4.7%, including deposits by 17.5% (on current accounts the volume of funds increased by 37.3%).
There are no noticeable, according to Kogan, deviations and in the statistics of the purchase by the population of cash foreign currency: the trajectory does not differ from the previous two years.
"This is despite the fact that the ruble experienced a dramatic weakening of foreign currencies in February-March and later felt the pressure of sanctions risks. It can talk about the confidence of the population to national currency, "said the analyst. What will happen to the currency rate?According to Kogan, the current situation in terms of fundamental analysis does not indicate the presence of unambiguous prerequisites for reducing the ruble exchange rate. The fact is that the decision of OPEC + the non-health of oil production from April (the exception was made for Kazakhstan and Russia) and the extension of Saudi Arabia voluntary restrictions per 1 million bar / day created prerequisites for continuing the growth of quotations in the energy market.
The expert explained that at present the barrel of oil is estimated at 5080 rubles, which is higher in the budget of 3280 rubles.
"This creates a significant buffer for the ruble against the potential expansion of sanctions to the Russian State Dolg (information about this appeared on Thursday), as well as the likely to exacerbate the situation in the south-east of Ukraine," said the source bankiros.ru.According to Kogan, the dollar rate in the coming months can remain in the corridor of 72.5-76.5 rubles, the euro rate may not return above 90 rubles due to the negative trend in the EUR / USD pair.
"Taking into account the incomplete rates on foreign currency deposits, with other things being equal, it is more likely to perceive the purchase of currency as some kind of insurance against unexpected events in the world than as a real opportunity to extract essential speculative profits," Cogan concluded.