The Bank of Russia accepted the long-awaited decision on the key rate. It is raised from 4.25% to 4.50%. The solution is very positive for the Russian ruble and weakly negatively for the stock market, this concerns the dividend segment. About this bankiros.ru told the head of the IAC Alpari Alexander Opeavaev.
According to February, in an annualized inflation, inflation accelerated to 5.7% against the designated TD target in 4%.
"A further increase in rates is definitely not far from around the corner. It will not be a brake economy against the background of expensive oil. In the current year, we expect GDP growth of 4%, the dollar ruble - 65-67 rubles per dollar, the Mosbier index - 4000 points, "explained Rodows.He recalled that yesterday, Turkey and Brazil announced a sharp increase in key bets with a difference. Brazilian Central Bank increased the cost of loans at once 0.75 percentage points, up to 2.75% per annum, surprising the market, which was waiting for a step by 0.5 pp. Tougher expectations worked and the Central Bank of Turkey, raised a bet with 15% to 17% per annum (the market predicted growth to 16%). Inflation in the country reached 19% after the Lyra fell to the absolute "bottom" last November, reaching 8.3 liters per dollar against 5.9 before the start of the pandemic, told Razuev.
"Hawks" returned to the market. And the Bank of Russia, definitely, will be in general trend. And this is very good. My opinion is that the fair level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia is 6-7%, and the faster the rate will be in this corridor, the better, "the source is convinced by Bankiros.ru.He explained that the understated key rate is inflation, devaluation, the dollarization of the economy and the flight of capital. The Russian ruble for the current deposit rates ceased to be the currency of savings. Hence the flight of citizens to the stock market, in real estate and, of course, the dollar, the divas noted.
He is confident that rates on deposits and loans will now grow by 0.5% -0.75%, since the increase in the key rate will become a trend.
"Finally, 2021, we estimate the range of key rates of the Central Bank of 5.5% - 6.0. The rates on the deposits of citizens in 6% are a normal level, it will return the rules of the savings currency, "concluded the rules.