By July-August, Russian consumers may encounter sugar deficiency, told Vtimes at least six participants in the food market, including four employees selling sugar companies.
The Russian government, freezing on the instructions of Russian President Vladimir Putin, prices for sugar made them, probably the lowest in the world. At the same time, the production of sugar this season is the lowest in the last five years - due to the crawling of sugar beets, the interlocutors of Vtimes are explained. And Russian sugar is actively buying Kazakhstan, statistical data is evidence.
"Growth to basic food pandemics will not explain. Where is the pandemic? Why are the prices [on sugar sand] rose by 71.5%? "How officials sweetened food inflation
The president found an explanation of the price increase in food in the growth of world prices and an attempt to "fit the domestic prices under the world, as well as to use export opportunities."The government is to restrain the rise in prices and, as a result, food inflation, introduced quotas and duties for grain exports and frozen the prices for sugar and sunflower oil. Sugar and oil agreements Manufacturers, the largest federal networks, as well as the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Agriculture signed on December 16. "The key mechanism for price containment will be multilateral interconnecting agreements separately on sugar and sunflower oil, operating from December 20, 2020 until April 1, 2021," the government's press service reported. In particular, sugar factories should sell Sugar sand brand TS2 in bags of 50 kg no more than 36 rubles / kg, and stores - no more than 46 rubles / kg. Agreement on the stabilization of prices for sugar joined enterprises that occupy about 100% of the market, the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture reported. According to him, on average, agricultural producers released sugar on February 3, 35.9 rubles / kg with VAT.
Record in Sakhar.In 2020, Russia produced 31.8 million tons of sugar beet, which is enough to produce 5.17 million tons of sugar in the season 2020/2021 (it lasts from August to July; on February 8, 5 million tons were produced) - with annual internal consumption in 5.9 million tons, according to the Union of Sugar Producers of Russia (son-aided). The previous season was a record: over 7.7 million tons of white sugar, of which almost 1.5 million tons accounted for export. Such supplies allowed Russia to reach the seventh place among the world's largest sugar suppliers, wrote RBC with reference to the presentation of the International Organization for Sugar. Although even until 2016, Russia made less of their internal needs, according to the industry union.
The initial goal of the agreement is to reassure the population, providing him with sugar at an affordable price, says an employee of a major federal network, "but the document was preparing for a job and one important link was missed in it, namely the wholesalers of packers. Plants are released with sugar in bags of 50 kg, and in stores it is sold mainly in packs up to 1 kg, in them someone should pack it, here the packs are just doing this, but the party did not fall into the agreement. Wholesalers and industrial consumers began to write complaints to regional administrations, the Ministry of Industry and Communist Party and the Ministry of Agriculture - on the manufacturers of sugar, accusing the latter in the reluctance to let sugar on 36 rubles. Or sell at all. With copies of four such documents, VTIMES familiarized themselves with, their existence was confirmed both by senders and officials in the recipient ministries.
Where did the unscrupulous sugar buyers come from
The exit was found quickly: the agreement was allowed to join the wholesalers and industrial sugar consumers, such as bakery combines.
Each Agreement has already joined about 11,000 participants, the registers are constantly updated, the representative of the Ministry of Industry, said the representative of the Ministry of Industry: a trend to reduce the cost of sugar and oil.
The company's representative from the Rostov region, who wrote a complaint to the Ministry of Industry, confirmed Vtimes that after appeal, the issue was resolved and the factories resumed shipment, however, in smaller quantities than would like. The factories cannot and should not ship everything in a row, they have long-term obligations, and obligations under the agreement to ship by trading networks, objects the title of Solution Andrei Bodin: in priority the final consumer!
The agreement was also joined by such buyers who are free to dispose of the acquired goods acquired at their discretion, indicates Bodin: "What will they do with the purchased sugar, whether it will come to consumers - no one can guarantee or control." Representative of the Ministry of Agriculture This argument confirms: the facts of acquiring a number of unscrupulous buyers of sugar are established at the price of the agreement without the purpose of selling products to trade networks or in order to subsequent implementation of the speculative value. Even if you do not take into account speculators, the prices recorded themselves by refueling on the market - wholesalers simply do not want to buy more than 40 rubles., Notes the employee of one of the sugar companies.
How Kazakhstan took advantage of the cheap Russian sugar
World sugar prices are growing - ton of white sugar on the stock exchange in London is already worth $ 480, almost for almost three years, they write in a weekly review of the analytics of the industry portal Sugar.ru. For the Russian Sugar market, this means two things:- The threats of the Government on the admission to the "non-promotional" sugar market of import sugar will not work - import sugar (it is subject to a barrier duty. - Vtimes) will have the cost above not only 36 rubles, but also 46 rubles. for 1 kg;
- Neighboring countries are growing interest in still cheap Russian sugar.
Because of this, exports to neighboring countries - Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and so on may increase. - Even about 50,000 tons of sugar, and its exports in the 2020/2021 will exceed 380,000 tons, which stimulates the price growth, the head of the analytical center of Sugar.ru Vadim Gomoz is believed.
Kazakhstan this year is the main problem for the Russian Sugar Market: The country, according to state statistics, consumes about 500,000 tons of white sugar with its own production of about 50,000 tons. Now Kazakhstan is beneficial to buy sugar in Russia - here the price is lower than if brings And recycling raw sugar, says Gomoz. In January 2021, the wholesale price for sugar in Kazakhstan increased by almost 20% to 257 tenge / kg, or up to 45.15 rubles / kg at the rate of the Central Bank for the middle of the reporting month, analysts were calculated by Sugar.ru analysts on the basis of these Statomas of Kazakhstan.
As if in the best yearsAs evidence of the imported activity of Kazakhstan in relation to Russian sugar, Gomoz cites such data: in August - January 2020/2021 only by rail to Kazakhstan, 115,000 tons of Russian sugar versus 66,500 tons are shipped as an average annual value for this period in the seasons 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 and 165,000 tons last season - after a record harvest. These figures without taking into account January correlated with data from the base of the Federal Customs Service (FCS): In August - December 2020, Russia put in Kazakhstan, the Sahara almost as much as in successful 2019, and 1.5 times more than in 2018 G.: 99 161, 107 699 and 63 725 T, respectively.
The February export of sugar is significantly higher than January, he closely approached December, said 9300 tons of Sahara, including 6600 tons of Sahara, including 6600 tons of Kazakhstan from the beginning of the month of the railway, was being exported to Sugar.Ru.
Kazakhstan actively exports sugar and vehicles, so no one sees a real painting on exports, even customs - free economic space, the three employees of Russian companies are noticed, including those selling sugar.
Enough is the sugar of Russia itself
Now there is no understanding how much does sugar in the country, therefore the uncertainty remains, what are the stocks, as the global price will change, says an employee of a trading sugar company. The policies of the Russian government may inspect the shortage of sugar in Russia, which would not have happened in market conditions, its colleague from another company operating in the industry agrees. By the spring, the situation will only be aggravated, because sugar is 36 rubles. Nobody wants to sell and will not be, the third interlocutor Vtimes is sure.
The full crisis of the physical presence of sugar in the country is most likely in July, there is another person from the industry.
Sugar-sand and sunflower oil are released by the participants of the agreements, the production remains, assures the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Commission, there is no reason for the occurrence of a deficit. A colleague from the Ministry of Agriculture (the enterprises of the industry shipped sugar in quantities that fully ensure the needs of the market. Taking into account the accumulated trade in stocks the deficit in the country cannot be, and the Bodin insists.
In "Magnify", work with suppliers has not changed significantly, says a retailer representative: the company continues to work with trading houses of manufacturers, and with distributors. True, "Magnit" purchased sugar under the packaging on its production under its own brand. An employee of another federal retailer calls the situation restless: "While sugar reserves, we have enough and our packers, supplies from the factories on direct contracts continue, but in the amount I would like to have more."
The X5 Retail Group representative did not comment on the Sugar market; The request to the "Ribbon" network remained unanswered.
"In the Government about the problem [with a possible shortage of sugar], there is no specific solution yet. "The next year can also be deficient
Sugar season 2020/2021 will be very difficult, especially in the offseason - in July-August, it predicts homose, since at the beginning, only the Krasnodar region proceeds to the processing of beets, the remaining sugar derivatives of the regions in the fall. According to Sugar.ru, at the beginning of the season 2020/2021, the transit sugar reserves exceeded 1.6 million tons. Thus, at the end of the season there should be about 600,000 tons of sugar in production, in wholesale and retail. But this sugar is distributed unevenly in the country: somewhere it will be available, somewhere there is no fact that its owners will be ready to offer its market, the expert argues. Another risk factor - how many agricultural squares are sewn under sugar beet, it worries: "If less than forecasting the Ministry of Agriculture, that is, the probability that we get the second scarce year."This year, the situation is heavy, but stable, the two other top managers of the companies from the sugar industry are agreed, and truly big problems are waiting for us next season.
"Running reserves will be recordly low, and the agriculture is good if they do not cut sowing under sugar beet. "The representative of the Ministry of Agriculture assures that under sugar beet in 2021 it is planned to sing almost 1.1 million hectares - by 14.4% more than the previous year. This will allow raising at least 40 million tons of beets and get about 6 million tons of sugar from it. "It will be enough to ensure the needs of the domestic market and the formation of transit reserves," he concludes.
To plant beets, you need to make fertilizers in the soil in the fall - no one has been sown in the unprepared for a long time, two vtimes interlocutors object from the industry, therefore, sown areas are hardly higher than last year.
Do not regulate prices for sugar - this is Venezuelysis of the economy
The markets should be given to balancing demand and offer without administrative intervention, unanimously all interviewed interlocutors from the industry. "The effect of sugar prices on the consumer is negligible. Direct sugar consumption is less than 20 kg per person. Even [price increase] 10 rubles / kg means 200 rubles. in year!" - considered one of them.
The market should be regulated by market methods, preferably long-term, gomoz agrees: response in manual mode, the more fixing prices - the direct path to the Venezueelization of the economy.
One of the price retention measures in the moment could be the target release of sugar from Rosreser, one of the interlocutors Vtimes could be. It is necessary to solve the issue with Kazakhstan, confident another.
The press service of the government has forwarded to Vtimes issues in the Ministry of Agriculture. Representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture and Minpromtorga Alternative price fixing measures did not comment.
Representatives of the Border Guard Service of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan essentially did not answer questions. The Sucden representative did not comment on the situation in the sugar market. Requests in Prodimex, "Agrocomplex them. N. I. Tkacheva ", GC" Rusagro "remained unanswered. Contact a representative of the GC Dominant failed.
Motors against peopleThe average value of the sugar price index in January amounted to 94.2 points, this is the highest figure since May 2017, reported in the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report. The rise in world prices is mainly caused by concerns due to the reduction of global supply in the 2020/2021 season due to the deterioration of species on the harvest in the EU, Russia and Thailand and more arid than usual, weather in South America. Prices also contributed to the recent increase in raw oil prices (they influence the prices of ethanol, which can be used as a motor fuel. - VTIMES). Sugar plants of Brazil, the world's largest exporter of sugar, increase the processing of sugar cane in ethanol, thereby reducing the production of sugar in the country.