In the absence of new significant occasions, world markets continue to consolidate in the levels reached on Monday. At the same time, on Thursday, the markets returned to the markets, which allowed Western sites to play the losses of the previous day. So, in Europe, the main indexes added to 0.8%. In the United States to the closure of industrial Dowjones IA lost a symbolic 0.02%, and the S & P500 wide spectrum index and the technological NASDAQ Composite were able to recover, adding 0.2% and 0.4%.
At the same time, the markets are waiting for mobiles in the adoption of an American economy assistance plan in the amount of 1.9 trillion dollars announced by President Biden. In the future, the steps bringing approaching his adoption will be positively perceived by the markets. However, concerns relative to the influence of inflation to the economy for inflation in the United States are preserved, which can lead to the need for an earlier folding of stimulating policy from the Fed.
Plus, in the coming sessions, investors will continue to follow the situation with the spread of coronavirus and vaccination dynamics. Reducing the rate of morbidity and intensification of the vaccination process give markets hope to an ambulance victory over a pandemic and continued restoration of the global economy. However, investors continue to disturb the situation in Europe, where quarantine restrictions that affect the restoration of the regional economy are preserved, and new strains of coronavirus appear, which raise the effectiveness of vaccination.
If we talk about the mood in the markets on Friday morning, they can be described as moderately negative. In Asia, on the background of continuing long vacation in China, the main platforms demonstrate the multidirectional dynamics against the background of the low activity of the players. Futures on the main American indices, after the growth of the day earlier, today is losing in 0.1%. Sales were activated in the energy market, as a result of which the closest futures for the Brent oil futures decreases by 0.6%, retreating below 61 dollars per barrel. Note that during today's session the attention of investors will attract data on the consumer mood index in the United States from Michigan University.
On this background, at the beginning of the trading, we expect sales in Russian promotions, which will lead to a decrease in the market and retreat of the Mosbier index to the area of 3,400 points. In the future, it is possible to improve the external situation, which will contribute to the return of purchases into our papers and stimulates the recovery on the market. In this case, the Mosbierry index will try to play the morning losses and move to the growth, which will help him keep positions in the range of 3400-3500 points.
At the currency section of the Moscow Exchange at the beginning of the day, we expect a moderate weakening of the ruble in relation to the main world currencies. Reducing the energy market and the multidirectional dynamics of the currency of developing countries will contribute to the activation of sales in the ruble, which will allow a pair of the dollar / ruble at the start of the session to rise to the area of 73.8 rubles. In the future, we expect to stabilize the American currency at the levels achieved. At the same time, the ruble during the auction will try to keep positions in the lower half of the range of 73-75 rubles, and in the case of improving the external situation, it will be able to take another step towards its lower boundary. Note that this range, in our opinion, will remain relevant for the US currency in the coming sessions.
Bogdan Zvarich, Chief Analyst PSB
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