In 2021, Russia and the United States extended an agreement on the reduction of offensive arms. According to the deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Ryabkov, Moscow notes "signals about the openness of Washington to the launch of a new stage of the strategic dialogue." What the new year comes to the sphere of strategic arms and control over them, assessed by an independent military browser Alexander Ermakov.
New Arms Race
Recent years have impressed the impression of the sampling of engines before the riding nuclear weapons. The outgoing American administration managed to leave a number of agreements on control (primarily an agreement on the elimination of rockets of medium and less distance), open China and Russia with its opponents and proclaim the return of the "era of the confrontation of the great powers", as well as under the skeins to launch several caller The great concern of opponents of weapons programs - for example, the W76-2 low power warheads for submarine missiles with a lower threshold of application.Russia began to actively piano its technical innovations in the field of hypersonic arms and new nuclear charge carriers. The reason was the development of new restrictions for strategic arms before the start of updating the American nuclear triad and demonstration of concern about the development of American pro, but in fact it only contributed to the explosive growth of financing these areas.
China, realizing that Washington's actions in the long run are aimed primarily at him, began to rapidly increase its nuclear potential.
The key event in the field of strategic stability and relations with Russia was the extension of the START-3 treaty. Before the elections, US President Joe Biden repeatedly criticized Donald Trump for the collapse of arms control agreements, and now "plums" of plans to reduce the American costs for the modernization of the nuclear triad are continued to be published. However, it is unclear to what extent pre-election statements, in many respects built on Maxim "Everything that Trumps is bad," will be coordinated with the administration's policies after coming to power.
US missile programs
2021 should become important for a variety of strategic arms programs. It depends, among other things, from the commitment of the new US administration to continuing the policies of the "confrontation of great powers" - of course, in military, and not economic or political spheres (the fact that sanctions and accusations of violation of human rights in relation to China and Russia will not go anywhere Obviously).
In addition to political moments, for many programs this year should be important and in terms of their own development. In the United States should begin flight tests. A number of hypersonic weapons systems: ARRW and Hawc Aviation Rockets, LRHW medium range rocket unified with a rocket for submarines. An extremely ambitious schedule of their admission for weapons will depend on the testing of the tests: this is planned to be implemented for several years.
Rocket programs of Russia
In Russia, re-equipment of the first "avant-gardeners" regiment will be completed, which will bring the number of heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles with equipping in the form of a planning hypersonic combat unit up to six, after which the re-equipment of the second connection will begin. The development of the American hypersonic and the collapse of DRSMD will undoubtedly cause a more open demonstration of "response measures": at least the Zircon Maritime Complex will be announced ready for deployment (current plans speak of its adoption in 2021 and on the start of serial supplies From 2022).The creation of ground-based medium range complexes largely depends on the prospects for dialogue with Europe by moratorium on their deployment - the active tests of such complexes will prevent the dialogue in this area in the embryo.
But the new heavy ICBM RS-28 "Sarmat" in 2021, on the contrary, should start active flight tests - before that there were only so-called thrifty tests: simplisticly speaking, exhaust exit from the launcher. The next year must pass for Sarmatically, if the rocket want to put on duty in 2022, there is already a small delay in terms. Delays with the implementation caused and transferred by 2021 by the transfer of a fleet of the "Prince Oleg" of the project "Borey" and the carrier of special underwater devices "Poseidon" "Belgorod". In addition to them, the fleet will have to take two multi-purpose atomic submarines of the "ash" project - "Kazan" and "Novosibirsk", which must be armed with the "almost strategic" weapons - "calibers" and "zirconami". Probably the transfer of boats scheduled for 2021 will also move, but it is impossible to speak with confidence.
Strategic aviation
A very interesting year may also be for aviation lovers: although the first flights are probably not yet to be held, but it is quite possible that new strategic bombers will be demonstrated for the first time in decades. New strategic bombers: the assembly of the American B -21 "Raider" should be completed for sure Maybe like the Russian pack yes.
The appearance of an already established Chinese promising bomber, known under the H -20 conditional indemnial environment, cannot be excluded. In addition, Tu-160m2 new construction can begin to flight tests.
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The coming year for a number of reasons should be a fateful in the sphere of rocket and nuclear weapons, their restrictions and strategic stability in general. The most important factor in further development in this area will be how the new American administration will begin to build relations with Moscow and Beijing, and how actively it will lead to the modernization of their strategic nuclear forces, which will inevitably respond to Eurasia.
Alexander Ermakov, Independent Military Observer