2020 We are definitely remembering as the year of Lokdanunov and the fight against COVID-19, but there is something else that it is worth paying attention to the heat. Last year, the temperature approximated to record values and places even exceeded them to South-West USA. The recorded records testify, alas, not about one-time waves of heat, but about the alarming trend of constant growth of temperatures around the globe. An obvious culprit of what is happening is to change the climate - the ongoing process of gradual warming due to human activity. Unfortunately, today carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow, which means the world will inevitably face new records and other, more dangerous consequences. However, how hot will be in the future, researchers find it difficult. This is partly due to the fact that the future increase in temperature on Earth is still to some extent depends on us. When and how quickly we will start limiting emissions, plays a big role in the evolution of global warming.
Climate change - what you need to know?
Despite the fact that the climate on our planet has always changed, the current changes in temperature are directly related to the human activity. As the authors of the report called "Warning of the World Socked Communities on a Climate Emergency Situation", which has signed more than 11 thousand scientists from around the world in 2019, "the climate crisis has come and accelerates faster than most scientists expected. He is more severe than it was supposed and threatened with natural ecosystems and the fate of mankind. "
The purpose of the report, as noted by one of its authors in an interview with the British The Guardian, is to install the full spectrum of the "vital indicators" indicators about the causes and consequences of the rapidly changing climate, and not just on CO2 emissions and increase the temperature directly on the surface.
Among the indicators affecting global warming, the authors of the report allocate population growth, deforestation, increase in sea level, energy consumption, fossil fossil subsidies and annual economic losses from extreme weather events. I talked about the report on the report and climate change in this article.
Even more exciting articles on how the climate is changing on our planet and what to do with it, read on our channel to Yandex.Dzen. There are regularly published articles that are not on the site!
What future are climatic models predict?
When it comes to climate change, the best scheme reflecting the events on the planet is represented by an intergovernmental group of climate change experts (IPCC), headed by the United Nations (UN). MGEK issues a comprehensive global warming report about once a decade, and this is one of the best sources of climatic data and forecasts.
The last full report came out in 2014, and the following is scheduled for 2022, which is not far off. These reports are based on the work of hundreds of climatologists from around the world and include updated climate information, as well as forecasts for the future based on complex climate models. Read more about the latest report of the MGEIK dedicated to the oceans of the Earth, you can read here.
See also: What countries are the strongest of others suffer from climate change?
One of the cornerstone stones of the report is that researchers call "ways of distribution of representative concentrations" (RRP, or RCPS). These are several different climatic scenarios based at different levels of emissions, from optimistic, suggesting that we act quickly, to more alarming, assuming that we do nothing. Currently, the IPCC researchers believe that the effects of warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius will be disastrous.
In turn, the preservation of warming below the target will require the world to adhere to one of the more optimistic RCP scenarios, called RCP2.6. This is to achieve a goal, but only if all countries that signed the Paris Climate Agreement will begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions right now (well, we should technically have to start in 2020). With a more intermediate scenario, called RCP4.5, emissions begin to decline in 2045. This will allow the increase in the average temperature between 1.5 ° C - 3 ° C degrees.
If we fail to achieve any significant progress in reducing emissions, then by 2100 on the planet there may be warming for 3-5 degrees. This number is often mentioned in the news as a plausible result, although some climatologists warn that it is rather the upper limit of the probability and is unlikely to happen.
It will be interesting for you: what will be the world in 2050, if you do not stop climate change?
The consequences of global warming
In general, the researchers believe that by 2100 the temperature on the planet will rise from 2.9 to 3.4 degrees Celsius, but the likelihood that in the future, humanity will live in the present bake somewhere in the middle of this range and is considered the most Probable scenario. But wherever we find yourself in 79 years, the consequences will surely be radical, no matter what the thermometer shows.
Our planet Planet has already become about 1.5 degrees warmer from pre-industrial times, which is the most common base when it comes to global warming. This change of 1.5 degrees has already led to the fact that the sea level rose by about 7.5 inches, and massive ice shields lose 1.3 trillion tons per year. This violated global weather conditions, which led to more intense storms, droughts, heat waves and other natural disasters. Another degree warming can have devastating consequences.
Scientists are already predicted that future thermal waves will threaten millions of lives around the world every year. According to forecasts, climatic refugees will increasingly leave the equator, which will cause concern about the migration crises in the cooler countries, where they move. Coastal cities, including New York, Miami, Jakarta, Lagos and others, will have to adapt, and the population movement may forever change the demographics of the United States and other countries.
It is interesting: climate change can "fry" the cities by 2100
It is important to note that global temperature changes are just an average meaning. In some places warming can be much more extreme. Of course, this is not the first time the earth warms up. Throughout the history of our planet, there were many points where the temperature (and carbon dioxide level) were higher than now. What distinguishes the current era, so this is the speed with which changes occur. Temperatures are significantly heated for hundreds of years, not tens or hundreds of thousands.