From the United States are waiting for new sanctions, and from the ruble fall. In general, the Russians do not believe in the Natvaleutu long ago, adhering to opinions that further - only worse. It is interesting to us how the ruble business will actually develop. What awaits currency courses in the near future, bankiros.ru found out from experts.
According to the leading analyst QBF Oleg Bogdanov, by the end of January it is quite realistic to see a couple of dollar-ruble in the corridor 78-80. According to him, the weakening of the ruble is due both internal factors and external. The main problem is the growth of inflation above the level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia.
An expert sees a big problem in inflation. Consumer price growth rates are not reduced, every week the situation degrads more and more. A negative spread has already approached 100 basis items. As a result, the exit of investors from Russian government bonds, since the yield of ten-year-old OFZ reached 6.26%, and pressure on the Russian ruble. High oil prices do not support ruble, since the budget rule of the Ministry of Finance began to buy a currency of approximately $ 100 million a day.
"Apparently, the situation will deteriorate. If correction begins in foreign markets, risks will grow, the pressure on the ruble will increase. You can add here and political risks that do not add confidence to investors. In short, the end of January and February will be difficult for the Russian currency, "the expert concluded.His pessimism does not share Mikhail Poddubsky, the assets of the "ICD investment". The analyst believes that the ruble is still in an undervalued position.
At the end of last week, the Mosbiergie index demonstrated a decrease by 2%, and the pair of the dollar-ruble returned to the mark of 75 rubles per dollar, summarizes Poddubsky. The pressure on Russian assets proceeded by a locally worsening external background in global markets and some increase in concerns about sanction risks. Also, in addition to the ruble, a marked decline last week was demonstrated by a number of other currencies of developing countries - for example, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso.
"According to our model, the ruble is still underestimated, and against the background of a positive seasonality of the current operation account at least a neutral external background we see the grounds for strengthening the ruble to the area of 70-72 rubles per dollar," the speaker shared in a conversation with Bankiros.ru.At the same time, we note that at the current time the size of the sanction prize in the ruble, from our point of view, relatively low, and when aggravating sanctational risks, the pressure on the ruble may resume.