A new strain of Coronavirus has made a lot of noise: it spreads faster, and this is its main force. Is he more dangerous? Scientists still adhere to the opinions that no: the course of the disease, judging by the preliminary data, remains the same, heavily does not become more. The weak moment of this story is precisely in the accelerated transmission of the coronavirus "Line B.1.1.7" (this is one of the designations of the new strain) - from 40 to 70% compared with the "original" virus.
But even this can be viewed in a positive key: the people will pass faster and develop immunity. True, against the background of increased rates of morbidity, the number of victims will grow (although risks recall, remain at the same level - of course, subject to the preparation of medical infrastructure to withstand the influx of patients, as well as the desires of the population to comply with at least basic precautions).
Even the "draconian methods" like a ban on moving between regions and total control over arriving did not allow to keep the spread of the "British" strain of coronavirus. Explanation of this simple: he appeared before he was identified, and therefore the contaminated managed to travel around the world, in contact with random and not very people. Next - both in fantastic films and classic mathematical models: a new strain went to "conquer" territories, gaining momentum and a "offspring".
Photo: pexels.
Last Sunday, for example, reported four registered cases of infection with a new coronavirus strain in Japan. They were brought by members of one family of four. Infection, they picked up during a trip to Brazil. The nuance is that the detected strain is not just "new" and resembles a "British" option, but they are not - and it is not yet clear, it is bad or good. But for sure it is usually for viruses whose strains are fruitful in a huge amount.
Where did the new strain come from?
Not yet known. Maybe the "zero patient" became infected with a weakened immunity. Or maybe the virus affected other features of someone's organism. The right to existence has many hypotheses.
In which countries found a new strain of coronavirus?
As of the end of December 2020, the WHO website reported a small number of countries where infected with a new strain were reported: this is the United Kingdom, Australia, Denmark, Italy, Iceland and the Netherlands. Gradually the list expanded. Thus, the "mutant" has already reached India, Sweden, France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, Lebanon, Singapore and the United States, there is a variant in South Africa, new regions are added daily.
Photo: Reuters.
On the eve, it was also reported on the registration of the first case of infection with the new strain of coronavirus in Russia - the patient was the traveler who arrived from the UK. Against this information, the director of the Specialized Center for Expert Medicine "Medicine 24/7" Oleg Serebryansky declared a serious danger for the country, mentioning the contagiousness of the strain.
According to the specialist, it "is about 2.5 times higher than that of the usual option." Indicators are noticeably different from the data voiced by other scientists, however, information to make final conclusions, not enough - disputes about whether the new strain is more contagious and if, how much is still being conducted.
Specialists say that the question is not in "if [the new strain appears in the next region]", and in "when". It is impossible to oppose distribution with more or less high efficiency to spread with more or less high efficiency, but it is not possible in principle - millions of people will continue to move around the ground and over it.
However, the opinion also sounds that the closure of the borders made sense only in the early stages of the development of the pandemic - then the countries decided, let someone else or not. If the pandemic is already raging everywhere, the closure of the boundaries will not hold back the internal distribution of the infection: depriving the possibilities to move, but without applying other prevention measures (restriction of direct contact, conducting mass events, and the like), it is impossible to obtain the effect. However, many countries act, focusing on their own vision of the situation.
For reference: there are some countries in which Coronavirus is not in principle (according to November). These are very small island states with a small number of residents, as well as North Korea and Turkmenistan. The two last countries officially deny the presence of infections in Turkmenistan, the increased number of deaths from respiratory diseases is explained by air pollution and dust; In other states, complete or selective testing was carried out.
How many people have infected with a new strain?
Unknown. The problem is that for accurate counting it is necessary to conduct repeated research, checking what kind of strain caused "Cokes". This requires additional resources that are not enough. In the UK, a patient with VUI-202012/01 (another name "mutant") appeared in September 2020, as retrospective studies show. Presumably, in October his active distribution began. According to official data, in England there is a little more than a thousand people who have discovered the infection of the strain "Line B.1.1.7".
Photo: pexels.
For comparison: in the US, sequencing was carried out only by 51 thousand samples of 17 million available for analysis. So the number of infected at this stage can be derived only with the help of mathematical modeling and by studying incoming data. Including for this reason infected with the new strain remain in the "lists" clasped "ordinary" coronavirus, but in some countries a new strain is already registered in 50% of new cases.
A new strain will disappear?
Apparently, no. On the contrary, some preliminary data indicate that the new strain gradually replaces existing ones. At the same time, other "mutants" appear with varying degrees of survivability - this is the usual survival mechanism characteristic of viruses: they know how to adapt.
Moreover, the appearance of a new dominant strain has already occurred during the current pandemic - at a minimum in February 2020, when the "European" option appeared, gradually became the main one.
Developed vaccines - all?
It is argued that the developed vaccines are effective against a new strain. If the coronavirus continues to mutate, it may change to such an extent that the existing drugs will begin to lose efficiency. This is probably one of the reasons why vaccination should occur in as soon as possible.
Now the answer to the question "will the new strain appear in Belarus?"
It is logical to assume that if Belarus does not go some special way, the new strain of coronavirus infection will appear in our country - the question is when it happens and whether it will be reported. Exclude that it is already delivered, it is also impossible: as an example of other countries shows, the lase for the virus will definitely be found.
Sources: Nature, ABC (1, 2), Nikkei, Forbes, Regnum, Fox111ONline, NewsMedical, CNBC, BBC, WHO.
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