Investor's income from investment in the promotion of Peak developers and the LSR Group is in the area of 15% -25% per annum, taking into account the estimated annual dividend profitability on these papers, the experts of the Bank "Freed Finance" are noted. The yield of bonds of the largest Russian developers, which are included in the top 5 rating of Forbes, is now about 9% -10% per annum.
"Given the relatively high liquidity of these issues of shares, and evaluating the current situation on GDP, state investment in the construction (at the expense of other industries and social services), we expect to significantly accelerate the growth of revenues of developers in the current year," comments Gennady Salych, Chairman of the Board of the Bank "Freeda Finance. "
However, the analyst does not recommend "to play long" with promotions of developers.
"For" peak ", for example, with the estimated potential of annual capitalization growth, excluding dividends, equal to 20%, the increase in the value of the company's shares from the beginning of 2020 is 48%, and on average for 2009-2019 this figure was 20%. But these estimates suggest income, which at the moment significantly exceeds forecast estimates of inflation losses, "the expert notes.
In long-term models at 2022-2025, financiers laid housing prices at an average level of 10% per year, with an increase in the volume of real housing sales, for example, at the "peak" at 13% per year.
"The predictive long-term increase in housing prices, as part of our estimates, corresponds to the dynamics of GDP and closely associated with the dynamics of real salaries. On the other hand, there is an ambiguous impact on the real estate market of the observed mitigation of monetary conditions in the Russian Federation and the world, "the expert says.
As an analyst explains, the share of mortgage transactions for the business of developers of the Russian Federation for 2020 amounted to about 80% of the total sales, reflecting the high dependence of the business of developers from the dynamics of inflation and market interest rates.
"As a result of the effect of global stimulating measures and exposure and suggestions, it is possible to substantially accelerate the growth of consumer price index in the coming years in 8% -15% per year, which corresponds to the indicators of the monetization of the Russian economy. Such an acceleration, as practice shows, will have a negative impact on the prices of the real estate market. In the context of the activation of industry state support, the final softening of market conditions may cause the growth of sectoral competition, which, as a result, will have a smoothing effect on the growth rate of sales of market leaders. Our estimates on average do not imply the growth of significant income from investments in the promotions of developers regarding the currently already achieved levels or average levels of this indicator in the long term, "analyst summarized.
