On December 28, the House of Representatives of the US Congress re-approved on democracy, human rights and sovereignty of Belarus, "overcoming the veto of President Donald Trump and conducting this law into life. In Minsk, the document was called "unambiguously unfriendly step and unkind interference in the internal affairs of the sovereign state." He involves expanding opportunities for the introduction of sanctions against the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and his supporters and at the same time to support the Belarusian opposition. Appropriate expenses already in the budget for 2021, its anti-Russian provisions are also an important aspect of the act. What means for Minsk and Moscow, the adoption of this document, assessed the director of the public association "Center for External Policy and Security", Belarusian political scientist Denis Bonkin.
Old new act about democracy
Not so long ago, the fourth edition of the Act on Democracy, Human Rights and the Sovereignty of Belarus was already approved in the USA. This is the editorial office - the very act, which was introduced in 2004, and survived them three: in 2006, 2011 and 2020. At the same time, the author of the new edition in a number of seats decided not to fully tire herself with some serious Edits, but simply added some phrases, for example, "peaceful protesters", changed the dates and limited to this. For example, they entered the section concerning the promotion of democracy, civil society and sovereignty of Belarus. At the same time, the project authors demonstrate not very good possession of Belarusian realities, which is poured into a number of mistakes and inaccuracies, well-prominent familiar with the subject of the expert.So, it is approved for the need for harsh sanctions against Russian propagandists who allegedly replaced employees of Belarusian media. Obviously, American officials do not know that 20 Russian specialists who came to Belarus from September 2020 are no longer in the country. The same can be said about allegations of attempts to interfere with the situation in Belarus by the Supreme Officials of the Union State and the Russian Federation. An explicit fake is the approval of a national strike in Belarus, to which BelAZ, MAZ and MTZ allegedly joined.
All this indicates that the source of information for the authors of the draft law was opposition activists, and not representatives of civil society and expert circles, familiar with the Belarusian situation and not issuing those who are valid.
At the same time, attention is noted that only the three names sounded in the act, in addition to Svetlana Tikhanovskaya - this is the name of the detainee a member of the Coordination Council of Maria Kolesnikova, a US citizen, a political scientist Vitaly Shklyarov, heads of the Catholic Church in Belarus Tadeusch Kondrusiewic. And it was Kolenikov who called the leading opposition figure, obviously, putting it in one row with Tikhanovsky.
US plans
In general, the document provides for four main activities of the United States in the Belarusian context:
one). Media support and the provision of a number of technologies for the implementation of independent journalistic activities bypass control by the state. At the same time, the advantage will be given to the Belarusian-speaking media, which are currently not the most popular in the country.
2). Support for opposition and protesters, on what, apparently, the increased diplomatic presence of the United States in the country will focus. At the same time, for some reason, IT sector representatives are immediately recorded in protesters, although the overwhelming majority of them work in the State Park of High Technologies and to leave from there anywhere, apparently not going.
3). Cooperation with the EU in terms of collecting evidence of human rights violations by the Government of Belarus, the introduction of sanctions against Belarusian officials and enterprises. This will become one of the elements of returning to the transatlantic partnership, and it is cooperation in Belarus that will demonstrate to demonstrate the new strengthening of solidarity between the United States and the EU after a fairly controversial period of the presidency of Donald Trump.
four). Countering cooperation between Belarus and Russia, the development of integration processes in the framework of the Allied State. At the same time, the authors of the report do not know that at the moment it is the most integration construction is on a pause, and we are dealing with a significant reduction in the budget of the Union State. There is no specific solution for the so-called integration cards. If you have worried about strengthening integration and it was necessary, then in the fall of 2019, and not in the winter of 2020, the pandemic imposed its restrictions on integration construction, and Russia in the conditions of Quarantine even returned to the border control of the Belarusian-Russian border.
Was the meaning?
In general, a document, which seems to be to engage in the noble goal of promoting democracy, human rights and the sovereignty of Belarus, unfortunately, is unlikely to achieve the goal. And not because sovereignty is understood by American officials solely as complete independence from Russia, the use of a white-red and white flag, "Pagoni" and the Belarusian language. Not because democracy is perceived mainly as opposition to the regime and holding new elections under foreign control. And not even because as the only human right, which is more detailed to be described in more detail and to implement its US efforts - this is the right to access information.
The whole problem is that American, like European, the establishment is in captivity of the mental inertia, which does not allow to look at the situation not on the stakes of the "Cold War" (although equally this problem is characteristic of the CIS space).
So, the act is given a task to prepare a report on the threat, which the Russian government represents the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Belarus. It immediately indicates that information should be obtained about how the Russian government uses the current political crisis in Belarus to achieve deeper political and economic control or integration with Belarus, a description of the economic and energy assets that controls the Government of Russia, large enterprises of Belarus. who are vulnerable to capturing by Russian companies in the context of the financial crisis in the country. It is also proposed to paint, how and for what purpose of the Russian government seeks to increase its military presence in Belarus, the Russian influence on the media and the information space in Belarus and how the Russian government uses disinformation and other malicious methods for the undermining of Belarusian history, culture and language .
That is, it has already been roughly described which information should be obtained that in the analyst is called "adapt to the needs of the customer."
In general, it should be noted that it is very unlikely that this act will be able to seriously affect the decision of the political crisis in Belarus. Considering this, this document must be perceived as voicing by his geopolitical positions and simultaneous application for the desire to participate in the processes in Eastern Europe.
Denis Bukonkin, Belarusian political scientist, Director of the Public Association "Center for External Policy and Security"