After the establishment of the world in Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran made an interest in participation in the restoration of the region. It is primarily about the objects of infrastructure, energy and agriculture. In addition, during the visit of the head of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif in Baku, transport projects were discussed, including the construction of new railways. What is behind the plans of Tehran and Baku to expand cooperation, and what other changes will bring the permission of the long-time conflict to the region, in an interview with Eurasia.Expert, the Doctor of Economics, Deputy Director of the Russian Economic School of the Azerbaijan State Economic University Elsad Mamedov.
- Azerbaijan and Iran agreed to build a railway terminal in the Parsabad of the Iranian province of Ardebil. How will he affect the trade and economic relations of Azerbaijan with Iran, Russia and the rest of the neighboring countries? What new opportunities will open in the region with its commissioning?
- The construction of the railway terminal, of course, should serve as the development of bilateral trade and economic relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, but to a greater extent it can have a positive effect on the growth of trade between the countries of the region. For example, for Iranian exporters, the Russian market will be a priority, first of all, agricultural products. In addition, the construction of the terminal should be considered as the process of acceleration and energy cooperation in the region, because in order for the railway line to have a high degree of economic efficiency, electrification needs, which involves strengthening the energy component and the development of cooperation in the energy sector. Here, of course, there are great new opportunities.
We know that projects are being implemented in the field of energy cooperation between Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan, projects related to the commissioning of a hydroelectric power station on the liberated territories. The construction of the railway terminal should lead to an increase in electricity supply. Here, in my opinion, Azerbaijan receives very good opportunities from the point of view of electricity exports to Iran.
At the same time, in the future, our country can be an exporter of electricity to the southern regions of Russia, in particular, to Dagestan. The structure of the Energy Balance of Dagestan says that there are certain deficiencies in this regard. Azerbaijan could well provide the coverage of this deficit by exporting its electricity. That is, in general, from the point of view of the transport and logistics sector, and from the point of view of the energy sector, from the point of view of agriculture, of course, the strengthening of relations between the countries of the region has a sufficiently significant potential that must be implemented.
- President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said that in Baku, the participation of Iranian companies will be very happy to participate in the restoration of the territories "liberated from the occupation" in Nagorno-Karabakh. How do you rate this perspective?
- Contrary to the judgments of many so-called "analysts", which are waiting for investments primarily from distant from the region of Western countries, I inclined to believe that it is the regional cooperation in priority in the coming years. In this regard, we must definitely keep in mind Iran. Iran - a country is largely undervalued. It is no coincidence. I mean that a flurry of attacks, which is organized in a liberalized press with filing the corresponding centers of force. Iran, by the way, has a very sustainable and balanced economy. To a certain extent even self-sufficient.
Importing technologies from Iran, in particular, in nonsephny, the agricultural sector of the economy is possible. He is quite profitable. Cooperation with Iran will be quickly transformed into the format of economic dividends. Joint Irano-Azerbaijani investments, including imports of technologies for the production of agricultural products from Iran and the use of internal investment resources of Azerbaijan, in my opinion, can quickly reach.
On the other hand, the establishment of a joint business between the Iranian and Azerbaijani entrepreneurs is promising in the sense that it will actually lead to the deepening of economic integration in the region, and therefore the formation of extended sales markets.
80-90 million people in two countries are essential for sales of agricultural products. At the same time, of course, joint production is a way out of perspective and to the Eurasian Economic Union market. In my opinion, strengthening cooperation with this structure will be in priority for Iran, and for Azerbaijan. Therefore, I think that the prospect of the joint activity of the Iranian and Azerbaijani business is very significant.
- The construction of a new highway is expected in the South Caucasus region, which will be laid through Karabakh, Armenia, Nakhichevan AR and Turkey. What is the future mission of this transport corridor?
- Transport and logistics communications are the key to increasing the intensity of business cooperation, and the world experience, and current economic science speaks about it. And it is no coincidence that in the relevant statements of the heads of the three countries of November 9 and on January 11, the black on white is openly made emphasis on the restoration of communications in the region. In this context, I believe that in the presence of political will, in all relevant capitals, it is really possible to establish constructive cooperation, an increase in business activity based on the deepening of economic ties between the Transcaucasian countries, Turkey, Iran, Russia.
At the same time, it should be noted that the prerequisites and to connect Georgia to this process of deepening economic cooperation, social humanitarian ties with other countries of the region are created. After the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, transport arteries in the region, railway communication are actually restored.
In this context, in order not to stay on the side of economic development, Georgia will have to think about the strengthening of their policies, its presence in regional integration projects. I believe that in the future you can count on the fact that Georgia will connect to integration projects in the region.
As I noted above, the strengthening in the field of transport and communication relationships should lead to strengthening economic cooperation in general and to strengthen cooperation in the energy sector. This is already a multiplicative effect in general. We see that different sectors of the economy connect each other to an increase in the intensity of development. Those countries that will be out of this cooperation will deliberately loss, because the region is very promising from the point of view of investment growth, in terms of money generation. Therefore, I believe that for the sustainable development of each country of the region, they will need to participate in the processes of deepening regional economic integration.
- Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan agreed to jointly develop the Caspian field of Pethuga Oil. What is the regional importance of a new agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan?
- This is a greater degree of symbolic character. According to preliminary data, 50 million oil, 30 billion cubic meters of gas - of course, not those volumes and not those reserves that significant economic dividends can give. More importantly, this has in the sense that after the leaders of the Caspian countries without outside intervention were able to agree on the status of the Caspian Sea, they came to a specific consensus, a format was formed in the region to turn the Caspian to the Pool of Cooperation and Development. In this context, it is no coincidence that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, as countries that many years could not find the points of contact in controversial fields, came to a common denominator.
This shows again where all the difficulties were actually associated with separatism, disintegration, problems in the entire post-Soviet space. We have seen in recent years that the Agreement on the Caspian Sea, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict has become possible when the country's country's key centers became key centers when pressure from Ocean weakened. It was then that the countries of the region began to negotiate. I believe that the agreement on "lorgy" primarily matters in the context that the Caspian countries should be made to the Caspian region in the Caspian region.
- Negotiations around the accessories and development of this gas field were carried out more than a dozen years. Why did the resolution of this issue become possible only now? What factors have accelerated this process?
- Consensus on the Caspian Sea, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict - the resolution of these nodal problems of the region led to the fact that his states were able to negotiate themselves without tips from the West, which all the last 30 years led only to the deepening of disintegration and centrifugal sentiment in the region.
No country of our region without deepening integration can move to a sustainable and advanced format of its development.
The main competing regional centers, centers worked hard to preserve dollar-centered globalism, tried to prevent agreement in the region in every way. When these centers have become weaker, we saw that agreements achieved in the region and decisions are made to favor the region's development. This is exactly what accelerated the decision between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan about the Deluch deposit.
- Does this agreement give a new stimulus to return to the topic of the trans Caspian pipeline?
- I do not believe that the agreement at the Department of Paluch should lead to the implementation of the topic of the Trans Caspian pipeline. As I have already noted, the reserves of the deposit are far from those who would play a significant role in terms of changing the situation on the energy map of the region. Secondly, I think that Turkmenistan in terms of the implementation of its gas potential will be more oriented towards the Asian market. Thirdly, I believe that our region countries should focus more on processing, and not export raw materials.
Unfortunately, 80% of the natural resources of the region are exported in the form of raw materials. This means the loss of billions of dollars as unfulfilled investments and affected value added. As a result, our region joined the non-equivalent foreign trade exchange with the rest of the world. We export to a greater degree of raw materials, and import finished products.
It is necessary to change and achieve a fracture in this process, otherwise our countries will be on the side of the world economic development and will be a raw material appendage or the oldest leaving center for technical and economic development in the face of the West, or the emerging leader - countries where the worldwide is actively and prioritizing Entry - China. The countries of our region should be invested in high-tech areas, in innovative spheres and to invest in raw material processing.