Grain producers, buyers and governments are preparing for high prices. Many analysts promises them in 2021-2022.
However, everything is due to the fact that grain, corn and other food products will remain expensive much longer. The era of high prices is coming.
In 2020, Russia increased exports of agricultural products to $ 30.4 billion. During the year, wheat prices increased, and the removal from Russia spared in demand in the Chinese market. After the failure at the beginning of 2020, world-walled wheat prices climbed $ 100 per ton; The growth continued in 2021, which prompted the authorities of Russia to introduce restrictions on the export of grain. Becoming sustainable policies, it can create an internal pricing climate, but a global trend, of course, will not change.
The instability of the markets in the era of a large crisis of 2008-2020 has learned many not to look far ahead. While the prognosis of prices for the maximum in 2022 is popular, and it cannot be called unrealistic expectation. After all, last year, not only grain moved up, but also corn (price in price $ 120 per ton), soy (added almost $ 200 per tonn) and other food products. Undoubtedly, the trend will continue: there will be meat, dairy products and much otherwise. And where governments will be limited to the export of grain, hay and other goods necessary for the development of cattle breeding, meat production will increase.
The increase in world food prices should not be reduced to revitalization in the global economy in the second half of 2021. The process is influenced by the deferred demand factor accumulated during stagnation, when in April-June, sanitary and epidemiological measures focused on the economic downturn, but forced many to wait with the spending.
More significant is to restart the growth of the economy of the PRC. It was produced after a pause in the first half of 2020. The growth of Chinese demand, as in 2016, pulled world trade and prices for all the most important goods, including food. China spoke here with a new global locomotive.
The question of whether to transfer the first place in the world economy from the United States to China can still remain open for a long time. Academic or analytical disputes can be continued infinitely, this does not change the fact. The fact is that China pulls the processes in the global economy, and the United States only forced to support them, since the Washington is decided to act differently, he would have wrapped his own economy again. Therefore, cash emissions in the United States worked and will work on the growth of world prices, even if the emission already produced in 2008-2020 is enough.
Inflation of dollar assets, thus, is one of the factors working on the growth of world food prices. But why will the influence of this factor be long-term? The question is extremely important for understanding the price prospects. First, the anti-crisis doctrine of the United States for many years and to the very end of the world turbulence (unless it is possible to consider it completed) was built on the preservation of the existing economic model: the United States should have come out of the crisis as they were included in it, only without signs of unhealthy characteristic of 2007-2008. Recommended medication from old diseases, one of which was the devaluation of the dollar, no one in the US took.
The second is the continuation of the first: the Fed was able to achieve equilibrium in the stock market, while according to the natural logic of the crisis, he had to collapse in 2020 and entail an avalanche of bankruptcies. Avalanche would have to include large banks, leading corporations, medium and small firms (to a lesser extent). But such avalanche was impossible due to the development of the fact that in the textbooks of the economy is often called regulation. The miracle of anti-crisis inattention and naivety was already the collapse of the exchange in March 2020. Show FRS more rationality, it would be in such a pronounced form and not happen. He happened - and the American regulators produced new ones, many trillion dollars, cash infusion.
In the coming years, all this will work on changing price balance: stock exchange papers in relation to the bottle of milk and the bread bug in the US will decline. Material - the most elementary - will go to go. It will grow in price and in the global market. Moreover, when the new economic rise becomes a fact, this process will even increase. But this is a calculation only on one medium, trading and industrial or business, cycle. So, this is not the entire calculation, since there is still a large cyclicity in the economy - and it determines where more.
The crisis of 2008-2020 was the frontier. The long wave of 1982-2007 ended with this event, a new wave was prepared. The revival in the second half of 2020 is the expression of its origin. It will continue, probably until 2040-2045 and will end with a new big crisis. What features this long wave will have, you can find out in my book "Capitalism of Crisis and Revolution" (2019), but it cannot be briefly not to say.
Raising wave begins in Nikolai Kondratyev. Intensive infrastructure and housing and housing, in the new industrial countries will grow medium layers and mass consumption.
All this will determine the stability of high global grain prices and other foods that analysts are still promising to us only at 2021-2022. The grain will be raised by the waves, falling in price during the average crises (the average cycle lasts about 5-8 years), and maybe even this will not always happen - this is the lesson 1950-1960s: the crisis did not always mean a decline in prices on food.
It should be ready for such developments of events, because the ascent of wheat prices, corn, soybeans, sunflower seeds, meat of all varieties, fruits, vegetables and much other things are still to be observed. Here, governments and trade agreements between countries may act as limiter. But to limit or locally influence - it is not the same thing to kill the global trend. So far, the conditions for increasing food prices are created more crisis than an emerging new lift. But the economy growth factor will also come.