Almaty. 9th of March. KazTag - Valentina Vladimirskaya. The international rating agency S & P Global Ratings confirmed the ratings of BBB- "Kazakhstan with a forecast" Stable ", the Agency reports.
"S & P Global Ratings confirmed long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings of the Republic of Kazakhstan on obligations in foreign and national currency at the BBB- level. Forecast ratings - "Stable", in the message.
Rating of Kazakhstan on the national scale - "KZAAA".
The growth rate of the economy of Kazakhstan, according to the predictions of the agency analysts, will be 3.2% in 2021 and will be supported by the weakening of restrictions in the economy, the growth of prices and oil production, the restoration of the economies of countries - the main trading partners.
The oil sector of Kazakhstan accounts for about 15% of GDP, more than 50% of exports and more than 40% of government revenues. Real GDP decreased by 2.6% in 2020. The economy is moderately restored in 2021 with an increase in oil production and oil prices, an increase in non-oil sector and will continue to restore oil production volumes in 2022 and an increase in production at the Tengiz deposit, which will be commissioned in 2023, expects S & P.
The deficit of the consolidated government budget will amount to 4% of GDP in 2021 against 7% of GDP in 2020. The budget will be executed with a deficit in 2021-2022, and in 2023-2024 it will become a new time for the price for oil $ 50 / Barr in 2021-2022 and $ 55 / Barr, starting from 2023.
Government spending increased in 2020 against 2019 by 23% and there are risks of slow consolidation of the budget.
The government of Kazakhstan will remain a net lender, and the ratio of the difference in the volume of external liquid assets of the government and foreign debt obligations to GDP will be an average of 3% in 2021-2024, which is lower than the indicator of previous years. Government assets are mainly assets of the National Fund, mainly invested abroad. Their volume has decreased from $ 73 billion from the end of 2014 to $ 59 billion at the end of 2020. The consolidation of the budget, the restriction of translations from the National Fund to the budget, and the rise in prices and volumes of oil production will strengthen the position of Kazakhstan to 30% of the relationship "Assets / GDP" in 2021-2024, predicts S & P.
The amount of public debt increased from 22% of GDP at the end of 2019 to 29% of GDP by the end of 2020. The attitude "Cumulative Debt / GDP" will be about 30% in 2021-2024, analysts predict.
In 2021, the Government will increase the amount of loans from international financial organizations and may return to the Russian borrowing market after the debut issue of debt obligations in September 2020. The main volume of issues will be in the domestic market. The cost of servicing government debt will be about 7% of budget revenues, analysts expect.
The volume of reserves in the National Bank rose to $ 35 billion in 2020 due to the increase in gold prices, which accounts for two thirds of reserves. Inflation will be about 6.5% in 2021 - just lower than 6.8% in 2020 and its level will be about 5% by 2024. The translation of a significant amount of funds from the National Fund to the budget and increasing oil prices should restrain the decline in the tenge course in 2021, expects S & P.
The dollarization level of deposits decreased to 37% at the end of 2020 and will be 35-40% to 2024, S & P expects.
Analysts include risks in the banking sector of Kazakhstan to group 9 on the Bicra scale, where 10 are most weak: the banking system is small, the volume of the loan portfolio is only 22.5% of GDP at the end of 2020, losses on loans in 2021-2022 high -3 , 5% and it is expected that weak banks will leave the market or unite with larger.
Kazakhstan ratings can be reduced in case of deterioration of foreign economic indicators of the country and slow consolidation of the budget and can be increased in the event of an increase in the effectiveness of the institutional system and predictability of the policy, such as progress in diversifying the economy and measures to improve the financial indicators of the private sector and the growth of the quality of regulatory supervision or Corporate bank management.